저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 인프라 투자 사이클이 이제 막 본격화되며 최소 12~18개월간 지속된다고 주장. 엔비디아 분기 실적은 약 340억 달러 수준으로 예상되며 주가는 연중 신고가 갱신 가능성을 제시. 하이퍼스케일러 CAPEX 증가, Dell·Super Micro 등 Tier2 CSP 확대, 소프트웨어(NIMS) 매출 성장을 근거로 제시. 경쟁자 AMD는 시장점유율 확대 전망이 언급됨. 엔비디아 자사주 매입 500억 달러 승인에 대해서는 AI 인재 확보 및 잉여현금흐름 활용 목적으로 해석하며 향후 더 큰 규모 매입 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
let's begin with you Dan IDs discuss earnings with me what do you think look I understand that people are discussing the whisper figures for the October quarter and I think it's a masterpiece to put it another way you cannot deny that this revolution is taking place in my opinion it's likely going to be close to $34 billion not only the $30 billion or $ 32.5 billion figures they provided don't worry about it lawell delays all the noise every stock takes a short break and is slightly impacted the most crucial factor and I believe you have discussed it is the derivative second third and fourth as a result I believe it rises and reaches all-time highs what does it say about Microsoft Oracle palent Salesforce service now and hyperscalers the capital expenditure is of trillion dollar the fourth Industrial Revolution is upon us after you end that call it's way for the second third and fourth derivatives it's more of a get the popcorn ready in my opinion yes I will emphasize that even more after all I have discussed Network effects we've seen zero Net Zero net one I mentioned therefore everyone participating in this semiconductor supply chain including designers and Chip manufacturers should be doing well the ones that will succeed are succeeding this flow out to the odms comes next next we've seen some boom bust you know they need to figure out how to earn more money and add more value but they're getting the chance because they're associated with Dell and HP fantastic they must figure out how to integrate the services and the apps with the devices we just discussed discuss the now platform Raptor service now you know this week Salesforce and benof may their highly ambitious to bit but here's the thing I want to make sure Pat has a chance to speak before Dan leaves and I realize this will be my final argument because we are running out of time however this entire thing of people gazing at a digest really irritates me the internet cycle is not this we won't witness this thing collapse the way the internet did the cycle is different there is a time for digestion you cannot provide services instantly demonstrate income and use sa when you have spent $100 to $200 billion on Capital expenditures we will not let this cause our Demise by not investing enough the sunders are essentially stating as they sit there they all get it first of all Pat you provided a number of excellent examples where bears are using it but that is just when everyone else says Ho there is no one using it they are using it but we must realize that the Opex out and the capex in areested no this stuff is good let me put it this way nothing will halt this train for 12 to 18 months for 12 to 18 months Downstream is irrelevant I take that you have hyperscaler fomo no one is in control of capital expenditures including meta Microsoft Hogle and Amazon the be continues on until investors start requesting lower Capital expenditures I don't think people completely understand the growth areas so I want to get to them rapidly the first one is the hyperscaler equipped first buildup last night we heard Dell discussed the upcoming buildout in tier 2 csps putting super micro aside for a moment the two tier 2 CSP drivers are Dell and super micro the Enterprise is the third component a portion of that was described to us and according to Jeff Clark of Dell company is now in Phase zero and transitioning into phase one of PCS content is the third area for growth they sell more than just GPU chips they also sell racks trays various networking chips and cables incidentally not to be overlooked as software Nvidia has witnessed an increase in software sales with each new generation including Blackwell the software began as low-level drivers 15 years ago and now we have the Blackwell generation known as NIMS in reality these are microservices apps that are being produced by several isvs in essence this is the easy button that will move this along yes there is rivalry but since the market is expanding so rapidly it won't matter hypers Skiller custom a6s are the main rival the nearest direct rival AMD is expected to finish the year with a 10% market share not for the entire year but at the conclusion of their calendar year in 25 and 26 Intel is probably going to show up today's GOI is having a minor impact but only at a cost of $500 million in contrast AMD is predicted to be worth $4.5 billion okay folks Dan we need you to leave so you may appear on additional TV shows and talk to people who are traveling to Asia this week I will travel to Asia once more again it boils down to that as I always say you may discover AI Revolutions in places like Jersey Transit Metro North or the 10th floor of your office building I believe this is the reason why a lot of the ERS keep concentrating on their spreadsheets and look for AI within them Dan as you're rushing off I'll be running to Berlin so that's one thing I'll be at EA to see what they're doing on these gadgets however I believe we should give Pat a shout out I must give this nerd some credit you know Pat is the Deep technical person and we were simply having a little fun talking about what makes each of us distinct as analysts did you witness this man point out Ford's mask change in real time he announced the mask change thank you but notice how Patrick is saying here oh my Ros let me deal with this it was quite humorous since I actually brought this out live on CNBC I felt a little guilty no one was discussing it I am reading from the CFO while the stock declines what's a mask set is the question it was amusing I've never really had to explain a mask set I said I stumbled a little and and then deep diver about a minute later I aim to make things simple man you mentioned that Bloomberg's headline claimed that they had changed their mask Jensen stated that they didn't the headline said mask change mask change I understand no thank you Bloomberg removed that tweet by the way did they yes because releasing something too soon bugs or otherwise is the last thing they should ever do because of all the infrastructure that has been built upon it they must ensure that this item is golden put it to rest because they will indeed see some in the October quarter yes and that's why I believe that the stock will reach its highest point ever in the upcoming weeks and months since it's like as more people begin to check I believe they come to the realization that whoa the demand's not just seven it's actually other Enterprises additionally keep in mind that you haven't yet reached Europe we are currently discussing the century on a global scale with some China exempt from the penalties the story is much more us-centric I have a question regarding the finances in addition to the already approved $7.5 billion purchase they announced a new $50 billion buyback in the event of a market-wide selloff or whatever would it make more sense for them to really carry out this authorization or just store it in their back pocket the second half of that debate is whether these BuyBacks are actually being done to reduce the float or if they are only being used to sterilize new share issuance and stock-based remuneration now let me explain I don't believe that press relase BuyBacks are solely about delivering a signal they may have noticed some of the volatility in my opinion I believe that the Tokyo scare on Black Monday obviously caught their attention it's a real buyback but the truth is that Nvidia open eye and Microsoft are the top AI engineers in the world at the moment therefore they must retain AI Engineers because it is ultimately crucial to their business regardless of how much people worry about options or anything else such as issuing new stock as compensation in reality though it's an incremental buyback I believe that they will take inspiration from cook and apple and put it into practice and soon we'll be discussing $7,500 billion BuyBacks instead of $50 billion in a year or two they just must do something with the excessive cash flow simply pluging everything back into SE won't work if you want any changes made please let me know
Comments 0