Inflation Could Be 20% In The Next Three Years Wharton's Jeremy Siegel 1

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결론: 시걸 교수는 대규모 통화 팽창으로 향후 3년 내 인플레이션이 20%까지 갈 수 있으며, 주식은 2021년에도 10~20% 추가 상승 여지가 있다고 본다. 통화·인플레이션 전망: 팬데믹 이후 통화량이 1년여 만에 약 30% 증가했고, 이 돈이 지출과 물가 상승으로 흘러갈 것이라 주장한다. 3년 내 20% 인플레이션 가능성을 언급했다. 자산 선호: 금융자산과 실물자산 중 실물자산(부동산 등 인플레이션 헤지)으로 자금이 흐를 것으로 본다. 실질금리가 마이너스(TIPS -1% 수준)인 국채는 매력이 낮다고 평가한다. 주식 전망: 주식은 2021년에 10~20% 추가 상승 여지가 있다고 봤다. 배당주가 인플레이션 방어에 유리하며, 주식의 역사적 수익률이 인플레이션을 상회한다고 설명한다. 채권 대비 주식의 수익률 갭이 커 자금이 주식으로 계속 유입될 것이라 전망한다. 나스닥/QQQ: 나스닥 저점 시점에 QQQ 약 23배 밸류에이션은 나스닥 기준 불합리하지 않다는 견해를 밝혔다. 금리·연준 리스크: 연준이 결국 긴축(tighten)할 것이라는 점을 인지하고 있으나, 당분간 돈은 주식으로 계속 흐를 것이라고 본다. 대규모 통화 확장이 장기적으로 문제가 될 것이라는 점에도 동의한다. 리스크: 장기적 인플레이션과 연준 긴축이 위험 요인이며, 통화 공급을 급격히 줄이면 시장이 흔들릴 수 있다는 취지로 언급했다.

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01. Headline in April retail sales coming in unchanged versus Expectation Of a gain of 10% that data The follows Rising Inflation numbers From earlier in the week I'll or since The currently on Pace for their Wheresweed Play January the NASDAQ Four-week losing Mm Change oneus now Jeremy Siegel Call Jeremy With great interest I've read that Your pre-interview notes and I was really wondering If you going to say it Is he going to say the Fed Too easy Is he going to say Inflation is definitely a problem is he Is it going to say I've been a long-term Bull and I'm finally having some Question And I'm not going to get any of that And I just tell you one thing Jeremy it yesterday morning At the time of the lows in the NASDAQ Some really well-known investor wouldn't let me say anything on the record by Dad said that A23 Handle On the QQQ pe4 next He said that right at the Lowe's That that was not An unreasonable multiple for the NASDAQ Saying that the sell-off AAA was Viable I think you might agree On our program I've been very consistent since Last Summer the unprecedented monetary expansion Unprecedented fiscal Support You know I think excessive Was first going to flow into the financial markets into the stock market And then once we reopening and we're right at that cost Floating in space Go for the last year So yeah I mean your question and then I said I was the one that said Bad guy cuz I was the most selfish I bet German that I've ever seen Not acting against what is very obviously Inflation and then we're going to have a lot more Chose That's going to be a problem down the road but in the meantime The money is still flowing in and I think stops are still going to be going on It seems like a lot and you're right It's a blessing and a curse long-term you keep printing like this And you think it's got to be a come up But in the meantime you pretty And it's going somewhere So it's very weird it's a It's it seems like a blessing and a curse I feel like remember Chuck Prince said yeah we're going to keep doing them to keep dancing while the music Playing But can't the end someone can just flip that off in a second or it doesn't work that way it's Slowly the volume goes down and then it finally turns off The money supply since the beginning of the pandemic so a little over a year has gone up almost 30 Percent Now that money is not going to disappear That money's going to find getaway Into spending and higher prices It's not always going to go Percent inflation But I predicted here that over the next To three years we could easily have 20% inflation With this increase in the money We called and financial assets are traded on exchanges Put the basic value of cash flows Capital they come from Those are real assets The money is going to flow there and of course real estate Inflation hedges And then everything can go up 20% That money is not his Appearance Be looking forward to I think over there next Yeah year and then the pad It's finally going to be for Just say yeah I got it I got to stop this and yeah Then you're going to be about dinner is going to be a bump in a row Another to the market is a Buy in 2021 with another 10 to 20% To go in the lower butt with with Not much else Not much You're the worst Dividend dividend of envogue to and end People will strive for dividends Because there will be some inflation and that helps with that Yeah and in that the only way you can get protected and we all know on treasuries are going to get Negative real returns Tips today - 1% That's not very attractive The history is that stops More than Inflation and there's a lot of dividend paying stocks 2345 % so why What Hugo fixed income I mean is that the Gap is huge And that's what I think is going to continue Kid ride the money into the market despite the fears That will be realize that the FED will tighten