저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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2024년 8월 엔캐리 트레이드 청산과 나스닥 급락 이후 시장 공포는 과도하며 펀더멘털상 경기침체 신호는 아니라고 봄. 엔캐리 청산은 약 80% 진행됐다고 주장, 공포지수 65 초과 등 단기 바닥 확인 전까지 현금 분할 투입 권고. 엔비디아 블랙웰 지연 우려는 과장으로 보나 8월 말 실적 전까지 공격적 매수는 자제. 인텔은 매도, UPS는 추천 철회, 스콧츠미라클그로는 고평가로 패스. 4% 이상 배당주와 모건스탠리 관심 표명.
다듬은 글
roughly one week ago we saw the continuation of the Yen carry trade on wine which triggered a significant decline in the NASDAQ by way of 3.5% and the S&P 500 which plunged 1.4% Kramer identifies the epicenter of the damage as Japan where a 12% decline in one night on the Nik was the worst since the crash of 1987 Jim kman advises investors to remain constructive and optimistic during the market sell off he warns that it's impossible to gain until sellers have finished unwinding their trades I'm here to tell you that the Yen carry trade is about 80% done and if you bought the dip last week congratulations CR of 87 that juming was related to overextended money managers who got quot with their pants down when the bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates these fund managers have borrowed money to make bets worldwide so they got crushed worldwide including here when things went against them and they couldn't come up with enough Capital to satisfy the margin clerks and there's nothing more dangerous than owning a stock that your fellow shareholders are being forced to sell sell sell sell we don't know when they're going to be finished so it's so hard to call a bottom unfortunately this Market can mount a real rebound it cannot do that until we know these sellers are done unwinding the trades and that's sometimes including this time it's impossible to gain hence our cautionary constructive approach tonight on may have bu second you have to analyze what people think is wrong because it's important to know what they are blaming I I call this the pin the tail on the selloff even even though I may not agree with it so often the money manager set the tone are actually AC acting on mistaken information but they run a lot of capital which lets them control the discourse even if they're Knuckleheads there are three reasons why these ill advised people are selling reason a they think the FED screwed up so badly last week and they should have cut rates and cut rates hard these sellers argue that the FED should have realized that the economy was weakening that consumers on the ropes and employment has slowed as we know from Friday jobs report well I agree that the FED probably should have cut I honestly don't think a quarter point would have really mattered believe me if things get truly ugly well guess what japal will cut rates he is not an intransigent stuffed animal he's a living breeding fed chief who's got Horse Sense B in the wake of tech earnings there's a widespread belief that the Magnificent Seven are hopelessly overvalued I think that this one's already overdone in some cases depending upon which of the seven you're talking about as I see it meta deserves credit for having a real return on investment of AI Apple has a terrific quarter in fact Apple's been able to take advantage of all the money Microsoft's spending on AI putting Microsoft's platform to work for its customers for an undisclosed sum sure I know Amazon okay okay not a perfect quarter they said the customers held back from spending because they're distracted by our wild political situation also the Olympics now maybe Amazon's wrong but they are not dissembling people I trust them I trust the reasoning they've actually never bagged me also I'm not giving up on a video just because an article said that its latest high-end semiconductor iteration called Blackwell is late they're in quiet period they can't defend themselves my information is that nothing has really changed from what management said at the beginning of July Blackwell will ship in volume in the second half if that's the case well we won't notice the delay Plus at these levels I think Nvidia is a buy even the if the new chip is late because the demand for the current ship the h200 is insane still the rumors are swirling at Blackwell the device runs too hot we won't get clarity until Nvidia reports at the end of August which is a mighty long time for this great company stock to be in limbo so do not be aggressive let it come to you it is coming down reason C why people are selling Warren Buffett sold half of his berer berer High play share in apple something that couldn't be predicted he just exol his virtues back in the May annual meeting did something change we don't know given the buffets a huge share are still by the way Peerless reputation it is freaking people out that the guy's dumping half of his position you know what it did cause wholesale dumping in the mag stock itself even as the companies with got a tremendous runway for the rest of the year I say for the moment there are no Tech safe havens if you're going to buy buy slowly and in small increments in pyramid Style please remember I disagree with the Bears on this one I think Apple should be owned not traded same goes for NVIDIA believe it or not but I recognize their stocks are still way up and many investors just want to take profits while they have them I'm not blind lakness and both they can fall further they probably will if you can't take the pain the house of pain then get the heck out of it now after you identifi the epicenter of the sell off and how investors are justifying you need to figure out what you can buy that's outside the blast radius we must always remain constructive and opportunistic even with our eyes open now many people believe that because we've gotten some weaker background numbers we're going to have recession you don't have recession with 4.3% unemployment rate historically a ridiculously low number you don't have a recession when the economy is still creating jobs and no big bankruptcies to me that means you can actually buy the banks yes I know Warren Buffett is selling Bank of America that does not mean you should get rid of the banks it may mean that they've been trashed for no reason other than is selling that's a good opportunity you know what I like the stock of Morgan Stanley for my chust it's got 4% yield I think there'll be more Acquisitions and IPOs in the next year this one folded like a cheap suit in the last three days hideous action it could kind of end here the selling with a high yield lower yield environment it's worth a try you can buy stocks that yield more than 4% take advantage of the sudden decline in interest rates which makes high yielding stocks the best game in town for income hey you know what stay tuned I've got some others to buy fourth make sure you have ample cash to take advantage of the next decline if there is one I believe there will be you need to sell the bad to fund the good you do not want to sell the good to fund the bad uh we know that it's time to put money to work but we still haven't done anything for the travel trust that means that we've cut down our cash position not yet we don't want to put too much money to work at one level we did not put net new money to work today it wasn't enough it wasn't low enough there's still room to fall we don't know if the Panic comes back we don't know what's going on in Japan we had a fear level above 65 this morning as measured by the volatility index or vix we haven't had that since March of 220 of 2020 and the the height of the co panic I think we got to be ready for more fear fifth the market needs to get really oversold before you put a lot of money to work we aren't even there yet we weren't even negative on the S&P oscillator I follow until today it went out tonight at minus 2.47 that's a start buy something here you have to be prepared to buy more into weakness because well the liquidation continues I would be let's say circumspect I would be more comfortable with a minus5 reading as a sign of a bable pan Panic not minus 2.
47 maybe early finally we need to know if there's anything looming that we just can't see right now I don't see it in America the commercial real estate market I think that fear is overdone you have presidential race I'm not worried that a Harris Administration would be anti- bus her advisors include real business people something President Biden never Embrace however she does favor a much higher corporate tax and that's not even no one's even talking about that I don't see any big bankruptcies or disruptions of the system nothing that is systemic we did have excellent earnings tonight from CSX paler and Lumen the last one's a real shocker those own dve with negativity or the recession thesis we do have a lot of earnings coming up hey these could be telling caterpillar Builder First Source Uber tomorrow morning Airbnb super micro tomorrow night they could all Impact trading so could Shopify Emerson Robin Hood Wednesday Eli Lily data dog the trade desk they help customers Place web advertising on that that comes up Thursday that could be make a break for Google which lost a suit about antitrust suit today any one of these stocks will be used as part of the prism of recession no recession the bottom line if if we check every box we recognize that this hideous decline will ultimately ultimately that's the oper work be more of an opportunity to buy that region sell then you should put out your shopping list get ready start picking your favorite names uh we are doing it for the investing Club in good time you should join just to see what we think the coast is clear we haven't yet remember you only want to buy the stocks that you'd be willing to buy more of on the way down otherwise I can tell you right now you will get blown out in disappointment and anger let's go to Regina in Florida Regina hi Jim how you doing today I am doing well Regina how about you good good okay my question is I'm a longterm investor and I own Intel after last week's report I'm down about 35% my question is should I sell and reinvest into another stock wait for it to go back up you should sell Intel you should sell Intel they have no credibility whatsoever uh I don't their balance sheet is miserable could it bounce I mean you could sell half tomorrow and then hope it bounces 23 but that's all you're going to get and I owe you Regina to say that I can't just say you know what it's fine because I don't believe it is fine all right let's go to Joe my home state of New Jersey Joe hello Mr Kramer I want to let you know Sur fishing at Island Beach State Park's been pretty good catching a lot of fluke Keepers uh the fluke are biting the fluke are biting okay I caught a Porgy the other day I to throw it back my wife says she can't hurt a fish next time I fish she better she better be canning I mean if she's can maybe I can catch something what's going on uh with uh Scott's Miracle Grow at near highs with better than average price targets and a nice dividend is it a buy okay uh it is a seasonal product they had a good season it yields 3.7 they do have by the way some very environmentally friendly stuff these days I say it's too high it sells at 26 times earnings I can buy high quality Tech at 26 times earnings I'm going to say pass let's go to Thomas in Georgia Thomas hey Jim big shout out to you and and your entire team that works for the investing Club from the bottom of my heart and the top of my birthday statement thank man we are cranking the stuff you need help we are there to help let's go to work yeah today in particular lots of comfort coming from you guys hey um yeah my question is about UPS uh I'm a longtime shareholder it's one of my core positions and I do trade around that CL position my last sale was back in 22 at around $230 I haven't really wanted to add to it as it came down and down and down but now it looks really attractive but you're you're fond of the old adage when the facts change I I changed my mind right is UPS not the company it once was or is it Thomas it is not it is not the company once was H FedEx is a better company now I've always liked the stock of ups but I cannot recommend it now it's very interesting I couldn't recommend UPS I said that Scott's Miracle Grow is too high and I said Intel must be sold so I guess I am part of the group that sees that things are wrong not that things are right but we're going to be patient and we're going to get there constructive criticism of this Market is fine days like today tend to scare people away from the market that's what happens we get these days every year there something like this I need you to think of what this will UL be a buying opportunity emphasis on Ultimate but I know that it's too soon so far people are going to sell if this Market goes up at all tomorrow morning they are going to right into it all right don't M have money tonight in a downturn like we had today your biggest enemies are your fellow shareholders I'm sharing where their mindsets are then we're all about finding opportunity in the face of panic so with the 10 you're now yielding below 4% know what I'm doing I'm finding stocks that yield above 4% and I give you that they will have peace of mind and a market meltdown hey by speak you speak of you I'm seeing if Tanger SKT be the right read for your portfolio in this environment I'm very attracted to it we have the CEO on so stay with Kramer don't miss a second of Mad Money follow at Jim Kramer on X have a question tweet Kramer # mad mentions send G an email to madmoney cnbc.com or give us a call at 1 1800 743 CNBC miss something head to Mad money.
cnbc.com I prepare like no one else so you can be prepared for any Market when bears growl at the market I know you're tired of it and I'm tired of it but get used to this sell Kramer Roars right back it's abundantly clear that right now it feels like no price is safe enough to buy stocks may be down but mad money is never out my mission is to make you money stick with Kramer and let's find your portfolio's next big winner together
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