저자: Money Talks · 외국인
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이 영상은 AI 리서처 조르디 비서(Jordi Visser)가 S&P 500의 한계, 노동 대 자본의 구도, 토큰화와 통화량 확대에 대해 펼치는 주장을 정리한 것이다. 비서는 S&P 500 구성 종목 상당수가 장기간 부진하며, 기술 대기업 중심의 지수가 통화량 증가 속도를 따라가지 못할 수 있다고 본다. 그 근거로 마이크로소프트가 약 6만 명(전체 직원의 약 27%)에게 자발적 퇴직 패키지를 제안한 사례를 든다. 원문은 이 제안의 상한 비용을 약 240억 달러로 계산하면서, 이것이 절감액이 아니라 상한이며 대상 제외와 수락 인원이 공개되지 않았다는 점을 함께 짚는다. 또한 직원 1인당 매출이 약 150만 달러에 이른다는 수치를 제시하며 노동 대 자본의 구조적 변화를 설명한다. 비서는 M2 통화량이 증가하는 가운데 토큰화를 통해 전 세계 자산이 유동화되어 통화량이 폭발적으로 늘어날 것이라고 주장한다. 다만 원문은 토큰화 자산 규모(약 386억 달러)와 스테이블코인 규모(약 2,940억 달러)가 1경 달러 규모에 비해 아직 매우 작다는 점을 명시한다. 비트코인은 2025년 10월 고점 대비 약 40% 낮은 수준이며, 비서가 말하는 '인내'의 필요성도 함께 언급된다. AI 거래 측면에서는 쉬운 수익이 끝났고 헤지펀드와 뮤추얼펀드가 디레버리징에 휘말렸다는 진단이 나온다. 마이크론의 사례처럼 큰 상승 뒤에도 고점의 3분의 1 이상이 반납되는 조정이 있었다는 점도 언급된다. 또한 AI가 기업의 해자를 약화시켜 소규모 사업자에게 기회가 생긴다는 주장과, 학교의 AI 사용 금지가 학생에게 불리하다는 비판도 담겨 있다. 마지막으로 비트코인의 양자컴퓨터 위협 논쟁을 다루며, 실제 위협 시점과 해법(BIP 360 등)의 상태를 구분해 설명한다. 영상은 투자 권유가 아니며, 비서의 장기 전망은 검증이 필요한 예측으로 제시된다.
다듬은 글
What happens to your money if the S&P 500 stops winning and close to a quadrillion dollars of assets start moving like cash? One macro researcher is betting on exactly that. And the story starts with 60,000 people at Microsoft in this video. Labor versus capital, the quadrillion, the AI trade, the little guy, and 5 years out.
Stay for that last one because it ends on the strangest prediction here. A generation that may not need a job at all. The researcher is Jordi Visser. Visser leads AI macro research at 22V research and before that ran Visser Labs, a firm that advised investors on AI and digital assets. Visser sat down with Natalie Brunell on the Natalie Brunell show and the message for anyone holding an index fund was not a comfortable one.
Chapter 1, labor versus capital. Most people think of the S&P 500 as the safest bet in investing. It has more than doubled since the start of 2020 from about 3,200 to above 7,000. Viser sees something else inside it. Homebuilders, car makers, retailers. On the index most people own, the verdict is blunt.
A handful of names are at best somewhat attractive now. Most of the S&P 500 is garbage. It's companies that have not gone up for a long time. I mean, go look at the total size of the home builders and the auto companies, X-Tesla, and retailers. I mean, literally, just go add them all up. you're not even close to one technology company.
So what's happened over the course of time is the market has moved to disrupting all businesses. And so crypto which has gone through its bare markets and this and that. Now we're talking about the capital system changing, capital formation changing, tokenization, stable coins, the whole money system is going to change and it's global.
And that means that the people who adapt, who adapt to it first, just like with AI, are going to be the ones that financially benefit the most. So there's going to be a redistribution, maybe not of the existing money out there, but if every year money supply grows, and now to go back to Natalie's point, let's assume the S&P 500 stops going up, which is what I think will happen, but it doesn't go down.
It just stops going up faster than money supply. And all of the growth of money supply is actually happening in nons&mp 500 world. Not the Russell tooth, not public companies, but actually small entrepreneurs are making money and crypto investors are making money. Well, now you're talking about billions of people around the globe doing well versus very few.
That is the world I envision happening because the money is moving somewhere else. That is the claim. So let's be precise about it. Viser is not calling for a crash. The prediction is slower than that. The index keeps going sideways or up a little while money supply keeps growing around it. In the United States, the M2 money supply reached $23.4 trillion in September.
Over time, that number keeps getting bigger. If the index cannot keep pace, the winners have to be somewhere else. And that is where the second story comes in because if you want to see where the money is going right now, look at the biggest employers in technology. On October 26th, Microsoft made an offer to its own staff.
Visser thinks this story got nowhere near enough press. And I'm not really sure why. Microsoft has about 223,000 employees. And they made a public announcement that they were going to give the option to 60,000 6 that they could take a package and basically leave. We're talking at 27% of the employees.
It's crazy. The thing that makes it more crazy, the average employee at Microsoft based on their compensation schedule about $400,000 when you include healthcare. You're talking about $24 billion a year. Okay? Now, this would take their total amount of workers back to the same level it was in about 2020.
Now, in that same money supply thing, the number one kind of connection back to money supply, nominal GDP ends up being topline revenue. So, you can have earnings that can grow faster. You can have stocks that can go up faster if profit margins grow. But the more direct thing is what are the revenues growing for a company because that should theoretically be fairly close to money supply at least nominal GDP.
So if you take the revenue chart, connect it to the amount of employees at Microsoft, they're very much the same. But now what's happening is since 2019 2020, their revenues, if they hit next year's expectations, and they've been beating them relentlessly, you're talking about 70% revenue increase. So not a doubling, but within a year it would be close to a doubling, but their employees would be unchanged.
And that means that revenue per employee is going straight up. And that is a direct labor verse capital issue. Now why is Microsoft doing that? Because they have a lot of data center and the easiest way to pay for it would be from employees especially if AI has reached a point at the tech companies which it has where they can do more with fewer people.
That is visers red and the headline numbers hold up. Reports say the offer went to about 60,000 eligible employees in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and India. Microsoft had 223,000 people at the end of June. So that is about 27% and 60,000* $400,000 is exactly 24 billion. But here is the part the headlines skipped.
This is a voluntary offer, not 60,000 layoffs. staff focused on data centers and sales were reportedly left out and no one has published how many will accept. Microsoft's own memo frames it around flexibility, not AI. So 24 billion is the ceiling, not the saving. The direction is still real. Microsoft reported $331.8 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026, up 18% while headcount fell by 5,000.
do the division and that is nearly $1.5 million of revenue per employee. That is what labor versus capital looks like on a spreadsheet. So if the jobs are not the way up, what is Visser's answer comes from a very unusual place. It comes from strangers on the sidewalk in New York. Listen to who walks up to Visser now.
I I'm This is not just about Bitcoin. The amount of people that I have met, police officers, firemen walking down the street in New York who come up to me like, "Hey, I want to talk to you about Ripple. Hey, I want to come." It is not just Bitcoin. It is a variety of things that they've been invested in probably since 2021, 2022, the peak.
But here's the thing. If I ask them about it, they know more about that than anyone on Wall Street. Everyone, including my son, knows more about crypto than people on Wall Street. And this is the thing. If you go back to what happened to Michael Sailor with Micro Strategy, him recognizing that he no longer could compete against, let's say, the government debasement on one side, meaning moving rates to zero, but on the other side, the technological innovation, which was making his business obsolete from the Mag 7.
Mhm. What I believe is going to happen is the reverse kind of of this, which is the crypto world, investing in crypto is going to make people a lot of money. And it's not going to happen on Wall Street. Partly because they're not allowed to, and partly because they haven't done their homework on it, and the equity markets are still still where the big money has to sit.
And notice what that argument is. It is Sailor's old trade turned upside down. Sailor looked at a company that could not win and moved it into Bitcoin. Visser thinks ordinary people have done the same thing from the other direction. One honest note on those police officers and firemen though, being early is not the same as being paid.
Bitcoin trades near $76,000 today, nearly 40% below its record of $126,080 from October 2025. XRP, the Ripple token those people wanted to talk about, sits around $122, about 67% under its high. Knowing more than Wall Street has not yet meant making more than Wall Street. Visser's reason for patience is the biggest number in this video.
Chapter two, the quadrillion. Visser's whole tokenization thesis comes down to one gap. The gap between money and assets. Meaning right now we have globally, let's say 120 to $150 trillion of hard currency. We have close to a quadrillion of assets. That's the fiat Ponzi scheme. But with tokenization, all of those illlquid things become liquid.
And so theoretically over the next decade to 15 years, if you can go buy a house with the e if you can go buy a coffee with the economics of your house immediately, not the house itself, but the economics. And I think people have to start to understand this because that's what we're talking about with tokenization.
This whole tokenization versus equity debate of which I was on a panel on this week. the line between paying dividends and all this stuff and just having the economics of something which is what we've seen with Hyperlid with these tokenized stocks with the oil price. I think everything is gradually going to become liquid and that means M2 is going to massively go higher.
So I think Jeff's history of the world makes sense to me. I don't think his future views are in line with mine. And I think going forward money supply is going to explode through tokenization, not through government printing. Abundance is going to come through the deflationary side which is going to excel.
Accept that or not, the claim is clear. Money supply explodes and governments are not the ones printing it. Let's test that against today. Those global figures are Visser's own rough estimates, not an official count. M2 today means cash, deposits, and money market funds. Your house is not in it. So, this is a forecast about what will count as money, not a description of what counts now.
And look how early it is. The tracker rwa.xyz put tokenized realorld assets at about $ 38.6 billion on October 1. Dollar stable coins are at about 294 billion next to a quadrillion. Both are rounding errors. So either this is the biggest opportunity of the decade or it is a very long way off. Visser's answer is that it is coming through markets people already use.
Open interest in hyperlquid contracts tied to real world assets like stocks and oil hit a record in July. But why would ordinary people care about any of this? Not because of the technology. Visser spends time listening to something very different. It is not inflation and it is not a recession. Watch what comes next.
So you have to separate the the narrative of bond yields politics and then get to I just want to hear what people are angry about and see if it connects with things that I feel in my building chat inside Williamsburg, Brooklyn, which is filled with younger people. Very similar things. And this is about we're trapped.
We're trapped in our jobs. We're trapped having to go to work. We're trapped not being able to afford a home. and so our kids have to grow up here. It's all these things and it's not about inflation. It's certainly not about the depression because everyone has a job. This is more about this feeling of trap that I can't actually escape out of it.
So in the same week that this France news I spent a lot of time just listening to what people were talking about and then you had the Microsoft news which to me did not get enough press. Trapped. That single word explains more of this interview than any chart. And it is a clue to why tokenization matters to Viser at all.
If you are stuck in a job, stuck renting, and stuck in a market that you only reach through big public companies, the way out has to be something other than the old ladder. Which brings us to the second half of the prediction and the part that sounds the most extreme. Visser does not just think the index slows down.
Visser thinks something bigger is ending. Listen to this. So, I said the S&P 500, but I've also said, and I don't know if I said this last time, we are at the end of the S&P 500's reign in my opinion. And it's not about S&P 500. It's about public companies. We're seeing more and more private companies grow very, very rapidly and not need to go to the capital markets to raise money.
They can do it on their own. And I think through tokenization, this will only accelerate. Programmable money will make it easier for people. I mean, I think about this with my own content business, which is I want the community to be an owner in the business. I have always wanted this to be like a Justin Bieber story where I want them to be the people if they if the community is benefiting from what I'm doing from an education perspective.
They're the best salespeople I have to kind of spread the word. And that through programmable money is doable. I'm still wary of the regulatory side on what this all means and what could happen with the new administration and how they view kind of tokenization programmable money. But I'm getting less worried about that every day.
So I think about what that example means. A creator could hand the audience a stake in the business with no bank, no listing, and no stock exchange. That is the dream of programmable money. It is also worth repeating Visser's own warning. The regulation is not settled and an unregistered ownership token can still get a founder into serious trouble.
Visser is getting less worried. That doesn't mean you should stop worrying. Now for the question everyone in markets is really asking. If AI is the greatest story of our lifetime, why did the trade break? Chapter 3, the AI trade. Vizer says the warning came in the course of last year and I said the firework show is over and the AI midcycle slowdown's going to happen.
Here's the difference. Um, I also when I said the fireworks show is over, the biggest negative of that which I think will continue and it's a very big positive for Bitcoin, there's no more easy money in the AI trade. And the first quarter of this year, um, the amount of hedge funds and mutual funds that played catchup and then subsequently got caught in the deleveraging that happened from June was significant.
Um, every their job is to make money, but again, it's in a calendar year. AI makes a year seem like five years, but to a money manager, it's not like, you know, things change. They still have liquidity um profiles are exactly the same. We heard about private credit in the beginning of the year. When's the last time you had someone on about private credit?
And the reason is that like the commercial real estate was after SVB, after COVID, commercial real estate was a big topic. But then over time gradually there's oh we'll sell this building off and you realize debt can be taken out over a very long period of time. It doesn't all have to come to the market at once.
In fact that's the biggest change that's happened. So I think people have focused on the AI trade and they're using these big words like this has been a collapse. This has been a bubble. The reality is if you bought Micron a year ago you're up 10 times or seven times where it was and at the peak you were up 20 times.
But there always needs to be some kind of pullback and everyone in Bitcoin knows knows that feeling. And the Micron example is worth checking because the shape is right even where the numbers run hot. Micron closed near $131 in September 2025. On June 25 this year, it closed near $1,214. That is about nine times in under 10 months.
So the 20 times is too high on closing prices. But Micron has since given back at least a third of that peak, which is the pullback Vizer describes. So here is the argument in plain words. The easy money in AI is gone. The funds that chased it got caught. Capital that wants a new story has to go somewhere.
And Vizer's bet is that some of it finds Bitcoin. It is a theory, not a fact. Bitcoin is down nearly 40%, so it has not shown up yet. If the big funds lost their edge, who gets one? This is where the interview turns. And it is the most hopeful thing Visser says. Chapter 4, the little guy. For years, the giants won because nobody could copy them.
Visser says AI ends that protection. And the winner of that fight is are the little guy. Oh, so a true entrepreneur. True entrepreneur. Build something, sees when it's going to stop, and then moves to the next thing. That's a true entrepreneur. Wow. In a free market. Yeah. Yeah. And that's what a true entrepreneur is.
In a world where AI is your competition, you have no chance of sustaining a moat. Yeah. A moat can't exist if it can be copied instantaneously. And we are at that point now. Any idea you hear, hey, could you replicate this? I want to sell I want to do this in Brazil. I want to do this in Africa. So what allowed the Mag 7 to do this is they had a moat on the innovation stuff.
So AI disrupts everything. And so an entrepreneur realizes, hey, what's if I'm only going to get paid $150,000 to work at this company? I can't live in New York. But what I could do is build a business where I have 25 revenue streams each making $10,000. And you just keep creating a new one. And a new If you don't think there's people doing that in AI, trust me, that is absolutely going on.
And so eventually you reached a point, I don't want to go into an office and sit there and have to go through this for $150,000 worrying about my job where I can make $250,000 while I'm traveling the world and my business is working for me with AI agents. It's a very run those numbers. 25 streams at $10,000 each is $250,000 a year.
It is an illustration, not a statistic. And building 25 businesses is not easy. But notice how it connects to Microsoft. On one side, a giant offering a way out to 60,000 people. On the other, one person with a laptop and a set of AI agents. If Visser is right, those are two ends of the same trade. And there is a catch.
That future only works for people who actually learn to use the tools. So Visser made a direct plea to parents. Earlier in the conversation, a very small number came up for AI adoption, 2.2%. Visser pushed back on it and then told a story from a law school in New York. No matter how young you are, you're not as young as the people who are embracing AI every single day right now.
So, as you go up the demographic, Sure. age-wise, the 2.2% number you gave is really about older people. Okay. The adoption has gone up significantly and particularly with younger people. Schools are a horrible part of this. For you parents out there, I'm going to look at the camera. Do not let your school ruin your child's ability to use AI.
It is a major major major problem. I I just saw a friend of mine who uh I hadn't seen for a decade and we were talking. This person went back to law school and they're near 40 and I was asking questions very philosophical person. I said, "So, how is it to be back?" went, "Well, the really weird thing is when you go, you can't have any technology in the classroom." And I said, "What do you mean?
No laptops?" No laptops, no phones. Now, when a school restricts, this is a bigname college in the US in New York, too. This is this is a law school, a big one, not allowing, this is the decision they came up with. And I said to the person, this is the most ridiculous thing I've heard. Now I understand why because you can record everything and then AI can basically transcribe everything for you and you don't really need the professor and it's this whole weird thing but that seems more to justify the business side of things than it does actually helping the student which is which for Visser is the whole point of school and that is a fair challenge for any college to answer.
A ban may protect exams. It may protect lecture halls. But graduates will walk into a job market where the Microsoft math is already running. The person who never touched the tools in class will compete with the person who used them every day. Now, let's come back to Bitcoin because Visser's story has one big weak spot and it isn't price.
It's a word that keeps showing up in every comment section. Chapter 5, 5 years out. Visser has a very clear view on which Bitcoin story does the most damage and it comes with real frustration. Uh it's definitely going to be the the the Bitcoin um quantum story and I I'll say it from both places. Number one, it's very frustrating that the community that someone hasn't been a leader in this and kind of taken the front hasn't taken the wheel and actually been the spokesperson for it.
Um, there's more smart people that are quantum focused and cryptographers. I'm assuming you've had Adam back on before. I I mean, someone, and maybe it's because that's not their natural side to be a, let's say, a strong leader in this, but the space needs one in the community to basically help fight off all this BS that happens in there.
on on the other side, it's just very frustrating to um to talk to people in this bizarro way where they don't believe in Bitcoin, but they do believe that the S&P 500 will continue to make money forever. Like there there's this thing about, okay, this has outperformed it, but you give it no chance to outperform going forward.
And at the same time, you think all of your investments in the S&P 500 will forever work. and my world of the private tokenization world disrupting public companies and that we're at a capital structure change which again is what Michael Sailor is talking about. That's the reason why I really like what Michael's doing.
He's just not believed by anyone outside the space and then he got the community mad at him too. So is quantum nonsense. Not entirely. And that is why this matters. A Google quantum AI paper in March reportedly cut the estimated resources needed to break Bitcoin signatures by about 20 times to around 500,000 physical cubits.
It also estimated that about 6.9 million bitcoins sit in wallets with exposed public keys. No machine close to that exists today and Adam back has argued the real threat is 20 to 40 years away. A proposal called BIP 360 was merged in February as a draft of one possible fix, not a live change to the network.
So Visser is right about the double standard and right that the space needs a clear voice, but the fix still has to be done. Bitcoin gets to set the deadline only if it starts early and that leaves the biggest prediction of all. Forget the price of anything for a moment. Visser wants to talk about who does the work and how fast all of this will
accelerate in the next 5 years because of AI and I don't think enough people have realized that we are going to have servants for us in the form of digital employees that work 24/7. So part of the reason that we've had kind of these inflationary pressures is the burden that we have for older people that comes through entitlements that comes through pension funds that comes through all we have to support those people.
So when people go, we're killing the younger generation. No, the younger generation is going to be just fine. They're going to be fine because they're not going to need to work and not needing to work except for identity, except for ego, except for all these things which psychologically you're going to change.
There's agents to do the working so that older people don't need to do this. And with humanoids, you get into the healthcare side and everything. So that's what's coming. And whether people believe it or not, I don't see enough people that think 5 years ahead. Okay, I want to unpack. So let's unpack it.
Viser is describing a world where digital workers carry the load that younger taxpayers carry today. Pensions, entitlements, care for older people. That is a huge claim and there is no data that can prove a claim about 5 years from now. A viewer should treat it as a forecast from one researcher, not a promise.
The Microsoft offer does not prove it either. It only shows that one of the richest companies on Earth is showing people the door while it spends heavily on AI. Here is what to take from all of this. Visser's case is not that the S&P 500 collapses. It's that the next wave of wealth may not pass through it.
Labor is getting squeezed. Capital is moving to AI and tokenization is still tiny next to the promise. You don't have to believe all of it, but you should know what your money is betting on and what it isn't. If this made you think, subscribe because the next interview goes just as deep.
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