저자: RayDalio—출연자/채널정보미상 · 외국인
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레이 달리오의 경기 침체·스태그플레이션 경고를 다룬 영상으로, 과거 인플레이션과 부채 사이클을 근거로 경기 수축을 예측한다. 핵심 결론: 현재 스태그플레이션 국면이며 다음 단계는 경기 수축(침체 또는 공황)이라는 주장. 스태그플레이션 정의: 경기 침체와 고물가가 동시에 나타나는 상태이며, 소비자물가 상승률은 8% 이상, 최근 분기 GDP는 감소로 제시됨. 부채 사이클 논리: 정부 부채 증가는 단기적으로 경기에 좋지만 채무자가 상환하지 못하면 자산 매각이 일어나고 경제가 취약해짐. 중앙은행의 돈 찍기는 장기적으로 인플레이션을 유발. 1970년대 사례: 베트남전과 사회 프로그램 재원 마련을 위한 부채·화폐 발행이 1971년 금태환 중단으로 이어졌고, 1970년대에 두 차례 침체와 볼커의 금리 인상이 있었음. 통화정책 평가: 2021년 연 1.5조 달러 발행으로 기업 세전 이익이 25% 급증했으나, 현재 연 1.1조 달러 긴축 중이며 자동차 비유로 연준의 급가속·급제동을 비판. 버블 게이지 분석: 주식 버블 게이지는 85백분위에서 40백분위로 하락했지만, 과거 1920년대·1990년대 사례를 근거로 성장주 버블은 추가 하락할 것으로 전망. 레버리지 게이지는 50백분위로 평균 수준이나, 버블은 종종 과도하게 조정된다고 경고. 달리오 포지션: 유럽 주요 50개 주식 지수 대상 약 100억 달러 규모 숏 포지션 보유로 언급. 미국 시장 숏 여부는 공시 부재로 확인 불가하나 추정 가능하다고 함. 리스크: 미국 내전 발발 가능성을 40%로 제시. 연준의 인플레이션 억제 방식에 대한 시청자 의견 요청으로 마무리. 전반적으로 달리오는 단기 조정을 넘어선 장기 경기 수축과 자산 가격 조정을 경고하는 비관적 전망을 제시함.
다듬은 글
skyrocketing inflation has recently sent prices to unprecedented levels the inflation issue needs to be addressed as it has affected millions worldwide ray dalio has studied the factors that have contributed to inflation and we will hear from him in this video stick around to understand how we got to the deadly situation we are in now the majority of the time economists are mistaken but ray dalio is not one he manages billions of dollars for thousands of people as a fund manager dalio has already amassed billions of dollars thanks to the dot-com bubble and the collapse of 2008 nevertheless he is currently working on the most ambitious short position possible he is in no position to take a financial hit therefore it is imperative that we take dalio seriously dalio just recently revealed that he had a short position in europe worth 10 billion dollars and it's probable that he's amassing a much larger short position on the us markets stag flation is one of the toughest problems we've ever faced the term stagflation refers to a situation in which the economy is in a state of weakness while also experiencing high levels of inflation the inflation rate is now higher than 8 percent and the most recent quarter's gross domestic product reading shows a decrease this is particularly worrisome astagflation often happens just prior to a recession according to ray dalio who has been studying the economy for the last several centuries a trend has emerged a common beginning point for the cycle is an increase in government debt which in the short term is great for the economy this may seem reasonable on the surface but borrowing is a transaction between creditors and borrowers the person who lends out the amount is known as the creditor and the one who receives the loan is known as the borrower it is impossible for both parties to remain viable in a transaction when there is an excessive amount of debt in the system this is due to the fact that one person's debt is another person's resource when a creditor extends credit in the form of loans they are effectively lending out their resources if the borrower is carrying an excessive amount of debt the creditor is likely to be strapped for cash and will therefore want to increase his revenue the main issue is whenever debt levels are severe borrowers lack the funds to repay creditors because of this the borrower will be required to sell assets in order to satisfy their financial obligations to the creditor evergrond a chinese real estate development company is a good illustration of this phenomenon in order to pay off its liabilities evergrand was forced to sell some of its buildings when anything like this takes place the economy will be in a very precarious position when the central bank realizes how by the economy is doing it will start printing money in an effort to save it from collapsing although it could be effective in the short term printing more money leads to issues in the long term money is nothing more than a piece of paper with a printed value on it if the worth of that piece of paper is disregarded then it will ultimately decrease in value therefore as a direct consequence of the federal reserve reducing interest rates prices will start to go up thus debt levels get excessively high and then borrowers fail on their payments thereby weakening the economy in response the central bank produces money to stimulate economic growth while all this occurs we have been dealing with the same fundamental issue which is a poor economy the only significant distinction is that creating money introduces an entirely new challenge namely inflation we are currently experiencing stagflation since printing money does not stimulate economic growth in the long term we are suffering from both a sluggish economy and soaring inflation at the same time the central bank's next move will be to raise interest rates which will serve to slow the economy even further dalio has observed that in history such events nearly always result in a recession or depression and there is no way to prevent this inflation will get worse if the government keeps creating more money stopping inflation requires destroying demand which can only be accomplished by removing money from the economy in other words stagflation is a state that occurs between a debt cycles height and a significant economic slump value of things were in a stagflationary period right now therefore the following stage in the pattern is a period of economic contraction such as a recession or depression are we close to having circulation yeah we are insane we are stagflation is simply where you know you have inflation and yet at the same time uh you have high unemployment yep you have economic weakness right in other words you you have a stagnant economy stagnant essentially means growth is reduced growth right low growth and with high inflation and that happens through this monetary situation that i'm describing in which the central bank tries to deal with a middle course in other words what does the central bank want not too high inflation and not too low growth and so when there's a lot of debt because one man's debts are another man's assets it becomes very difficult a balancing act and that is when you have stagflation when you produce it so just like in the 1960s late 60s we spent a lot of money on guns and butter we called it the vietnam war and social programs and so on we wrote too many checks relative to the money we had in the bank which was gold at the time 1971 the devaluation then they print a lot of money into that stagnation a stagflationary economy leads to a recession but the interviewer interrupted dalio before he could conclude the 1960s were the most recent decade in which we were affected by stagflation the united states government went into debt in order to finance the vietnam war and several social initiatives this that allowed the government to buy weapons and food the united states government on the other hand did not have the funds necessary to pay down this loan so it produced money instead consequently the united states experienced stagflation generally described as a poor economy and high inflation because of these unheard of financial conditions the united states ran out of money in 1971.
dalio clarified via twitter at that time the united states was spending a lot more money than it was earning by writing a lot more of these paper money checks and had gold in the bank to exchange for them as people turned these checks into the bank for gold money the amount of gold in the u.s startled to dwindle it soon became obvious that the u.s couldn't keep his promises for all the existing paper money so people holding dollars rushed to exchange them before the gold went out in a roundabout way dalio differentiated between commodity money and fiat money the two distinct varieties of money a gold coin for example is a type of commodity money because its value was derived solely from its physical composition for financial dealings people have traditionally used gold and this practice dates back several centuries this is due to the fact that gold is a relatively scarce metal that possesses exceptional chemical characteristics both of which contribute to its enormous worth government issued money on the other hand is backed and produced by the state the united states dollar is a good illustration of fiat money because the united states government is the sole arbiter of the dollar's worth 1971 was a pivotal year for the widespread adoption of commodity money as an alternative to fiat currency by printing more money governments run the risk of creating stagflation which might lead to the demise of all fiat currency an excellent illustration of this was zimbabwe's hyperinflation in 2008 when inflation on a daily basis was 98 percent the only reason that fiat currency has any value at all is that people continue to trust in it despite the fact that the government committed the error of producing more and more dollars if people ceased trusting in the worth of the united states dollar that currency's value would plummet further skepticism is generated as the dollar plummets which further devalues the currency the federal reserve is quite worried about this positive feedback loop so how severe is the current economic downturn the response can be expressed in the form of an automobile metaphor consider the characteristics of a good and poor driver of a motor vehicle a good driver would apply a light touch to the gas and brake pedals leaving the vehicle to go forward in a steady and somewhat consistent manner traffic lights and pedestrians are examples of external occurrences over which the driver has no influence the journey on the other hand will be uneventful for the passengers so long as the competent driver takes the necessary precautions in advance and gradually gets on the brake pedal the majority of you should drive in this manner a poor driver would constantly pound on the gas in the brake which would result in significant variations in speed a journey like that in which the vehicle repeatedly lurches backwards and forwards would be quite unpleasant for the passengers the federal reserve was performed poorly behind the wheel in the year 2021 they stepped on the gas pedal sending the vehicle careening forward right now they're stomping on the brakes which is causing the automobile to jolt reward in 2021 the federal reserve printed an average of 1.5 trillion dollars annually in the new currency as a result the pre-tax earnings of corporations shot up by a whopping 25 percent marking the highest gain in that metric since 1976.
even after accounting for taxes the post-tax profits of corporations climbed by 37 percent marking the largest gain since 1948 at this time the fed is decreasing the amount of money in circulation at a rate of 1.1 trillion dollars annually it should not come as a surprise that we are about to face a catastrophe of that proportion but one with negative consequences the united states experienced not one but two recessions throughout the decade of the 1970s the first of which began in 1974 and the second of which began in 1979 it was only because of fed chair paul volcker that the united states was able to withstand this financial catastrophe volcker increased interest rates in 1979 in an effort to halt inflation because of this the economy was subject to erratic shifts with the gross domestic product primarily contradicting during volcker's term as federal reserve chairman it's also vital to note that foreign countries were in far greater suffering than the united states the debtor nations of other countries were made to suffer through a decade-long downturn according to dalio the only way to lower inflation is for individuals and businesses to cut back on their spending this has been the situation in the past and it will be the situation again this time as was discussed before the printing of more money cost the financial markets to become overstretched and this continued until 2021 this is something that dalio is aware of thanks to his bubble gauge which he employs to determine whether or not certain stock prices are exaggerated this graph demonstrates that dalio possesses his own bubble gauge which divides bubbles into various percentiles according to their size the 1920s were a time when the bubble gauge was at its most extreme the same thing happened throughout the 1990s with a decade's average remaining inside the 99th percentile for several years before plummeting before the most recent fall the 2020s were performing at a level that was in the 85th percentile of all bubbles this level has since dropped to the 40th percentile therefore if we are to believe what dalio has to say gauge stocks are substantially undervalued in accordance with dalio's gauge the once promising businesses have now fallen below the average despite this dalio believes that the bubble stocks will continue to fall dalio basis is forecast on historical precedents such as the 1920s and the 1990s which were in many ways comparable to the 2020s due to loose monetary policy the market value of growth stocks increased dramatically over all three time periods because of this they were able to analyze the trends that had occurred in the past and make a prognosis based on those findings nasdaq two-year government bond yields were mapped out and studied by dalio in all three time frames the current bubbles compared to those of the 1920s and 1990s have a greater negative impact on us dalio also employs a gauge known as the leverage gauge the market's options holdings and margin debt are all factored into his leverage gauge based on the leverage gauge's most recent reading we are presently located in the middle of the data set at the 50th percentile therefore it is fairly comparable to the average this can lead many investors to believe that there is no risk but dalio isn't so sure it has come to his attention that bubbles frequently overcorrect thus bringing us back to the automobile example while economies fluctuate back and forth bubbles often go even further than what the fundamentals indicate the leverage in the market is approximately average right now which may seem acceptable nevertheless bubbles often overcracked to the 10th or 20th percentile dalio stands to profit greatly from the upcoming correction an estimated 10 billion dollars of his assets are said to be short positions in a number of european stock exchanges euro stocks 50 is a european index that measures europe's 50 largest stocks his shorting stocks identical to those in this index due to the sec's lack of disclosure requirements for short positions we have no idea if dalio is shorting the us market in spite of this we wouldn't be shocked if he did it particularly considering the short position he holds in europe in addition to this dalio believes that there is a possibility of a civil war breaking out in the united states which has a probability of 40 percent what do you guys think of ray dalio's analysis how should the federal reserve act to tone down inflation in the proper way share your thoughts in the comments section down below if you enjoyed this video please like and subscribe and we'll see you on the next one
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