저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏, 잭 보글, 릭 페리의 2펀드 포트폴리오(주식 90%+채권 10%)를 소개하고, 2009년 이후 백테스트에서 버핏안이 다른 안을 앞섰으며 1986년 이후 3펀드 포트폴리오보다도 높은 수익을 보였다고 설명. 과거 성과 기반 시연이며 투자 권유가 아니라고 명시. 저비용·장기 적립 투자에 적합하다는 설명.
다듬은 글
what if I told you that there is a way to build a solid Investment Portfolio by only investing in two assets that portfolio exists and it's called the two fund portfolio so in this video I'll teach you the different versions of this portfolio created by some of the best investors and money managers in history like Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle and I'm also going to show their respective performance over time versus other popular portfolios like the three fund portfolio Okay so before we get into this I am not a financial adviser and this is not Financial advice you need to do your own due Dil but I want to give you an idea of how to construct this two fund portfolio using existing asset classes such as mutual funds or ETFs so what is a tw- fund portfolio in general so a two fund portfolio is basically a portfolio that contains two funds uh some sort of a total stock market index fund and some sort of government bonds or treasury bills so I'm going to give you three examples and that's why I have three different um basically numbers right here these are just going to represent 90% And 10% of this Pi obviously this will change based on your age if you're 25 years old versus 75 years old you may want to adjust some of these accordingly and just a quick reminder that I'm not a NerdWallet Inc aren't financial advisors this is educational content provided by NerdWallet and we aren't providing investment advice so the first one I'm going to show you is Warren Buffett so Warren Buffett firmly believes that you should put 90% of your pie into some sort of S&P 500 fund this could be spy or vo here is a direct quote from his 2013 newsletter to all Berkshire pathway investors and I quote my advice to the trustee could not be more simple put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very lowcost S&P 500 Index Fund I suggest vanguards I believe the trust's long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors whether Pension funds institutions or individuals who employ High fee managers so you heard that straight from the horse's mouth straight from the Oracle of Omaha so what he wants you to do is put 90% of this portfolio into is some sort of equivalent of the S&P 500 again this could be ticker symbol spy or ticker symbol vo that is vanguards according to his direct quote and then the other one is going to be something similar to a 10% allocation to a vbx for example uh this is going to be short-term treasuries now if we look at Jack Bogle who's actually the founder of Vanguard he believes you should do this he believes in the 90% total us stock market fund in this case that would be a vti and then also 10% % of total us Bond index funds and the Vanguard equivalent to that would be B and D so for the last one this is actually a gentleman called Rick Fair uh he's a registered investment adviser he's an author he's a financial advisor uh he's a big boglehead and he just switches up Jack bogles a little bit so instead of total US Stock Market with vti what he wants you to do is go 90% Global stock market which in this case would be VT and then 10% us intermediate term bonds not just a 10% total us Bond or 10% short-term treasury uh like Jack Bogle or Warren Buffett you would get exposure to that in vbx uh and if you're looking for like ETF equivalence uh VSS bxs excuse me vs sbsx that's hard to say uh has vgsh uh and then also you have uh Biv for VB ILX so those are your two options if you're looking for an ETF equivalent remember these are just examples and that Vanguard is a monetizing partner with us here at NerdWallet however they did not have any input or review of this video video mention of Vanguard is strictly for educational purposes full disclosure I personally own shares of vti which is an ETF provided by Vanguard okay so now that you understand what's actually going into this TW fund portfolio based on this 9010 allocation and again you can change those weightings depending on your age or your risk tolerance uh who is this portfolio even for how do you know if you're even interested investing in something like this so one is that this is for people who can't or don't want to pick individual stocks which is in my opinion most people um a lot of us have daily lives outside of just building portfolios and analyzing stocks and doing security analysis uh so if you're someone who wants to set it and forget it which is the next point this is definitely for you so setting it and forgetting it comes through dollar cost averaging with a long-term Outlook uh say for example you know you take home $1,000 a week or $1,000 every pay period you can then uh figure out what your budget is and allocate a certain percentage to this portfolio because this is a long-term Outlook portfolio and then finally Point number three this is for people who are looking for lower fees so a typical uh financial advisor you're probably going to be somewhere around 1% uh in fees on total assets managed but if you go with like a vo for example this is going to be 0.3% so this is 97 basis points less than 1% with a typical financial advisor uh if you're looking at a VT for example that's 0.7% uh so just to give the give you some context on a $100,000 portfolio 1% in fees would be $11,000 per year with this it's only going to be 30 if you're looking at like a vo for example where the expense ratio is only 0.03% so how does this portfolio compare it to something more popular like a three fund portfolio or other portfolios out there uh what I want to do is I want to take you to my laptop share my screen and then we'll take a look at how this fares over time okay so now we're in the back testing portion of this video and before I show you this scenario of past performance this is strictly a hypothetical based on portfolio visualizers own numbers and back testing this is not an indicator of future performance what I want to do is I want to actually see these three different philosophies between Warren Buffett Jack Bogle and Rick Ferry and I'll show you real quick I'm going to zoom in and show you exactly what we're comparing all of these are 90% equities 10% of the second thing whether that's bonds or treasuries or whatever those asset classes are uh just know that they're all 9010 so for the first one I used vanguard's 500 Index investor this is vfinx I know I mentioned to use the S&P 500 uh spy or Vo this allows me to back test just a little bit further so that's the Warren Buffett one the second one is the jack Boggle one where I'm using vti and BND the third one is going to be VT and vbx again this is Rick feries this is the total World stock ETF and then the second one is the intermediate term bond index funds so uh what we did here is this testing starts back in December 31st 2009 um so you can see that these results are for the past 14 years or so so when we when we zoom in here you can see the performance summary it's actually pretty staggering so you have the Warren Buffett one actually ends up at $52,400 Jack Bogle ends up at $52,750 and Rick F's is actually underperforming pretty significantly at 32,825 this is if you invested $10,000 back in December 31st 2009 you can see the compound annual growth rate is significantly higher for the first two and you can see that the uh Warren buffets actually has almost the best best year that's actually Jack bogal has the best year at 29.9% but he also has the worst year attive 18.8% so uh this one actually the Warren buffer one actually ends up being the most um successful and relatively least volatile when you look at the sharp ratio so now that we know that the Warren Buffett one outperforms everything I wanted to go into uh the second part of this demo is actually back testing against the three fund portfolio so what I used for this was the total US Stock Market at 70% of the portfolio uh Global stock market outside excluding the us at 20% and total us Bond Market at 10% that's that adds up to be 100% for the second portfolio I just use us large cap uh AKA S&P 500 or similar and then also 10% short-term treasuries and we can see the two results here so again the first one is the three fund portfolio the second one is Warren Buffett's so let's take a look at the numbers so if I zoom in you can see portfolio one and let me actually show you where this starts uh very quickly so these start December 31st 1986 so if you're to put in $10,000 into these two portfolios and not touch anything and not reinvest anything um after the this number of years since 1986 with 10 grand you would end up with $278,400 and then the second one is the Warren Buffett portfolio the two fund portfolio that we're talking about in this video it's over $1 $100,000 more at $386,000 uh it has a higher compound annual growth rate and it also has a better best year and a better worst year if that makes sense uh you can see the Max draw Downs over here as well so at the end of this you can see these numbers it significantly outperforms so to me that says Warren Buffett is on to something right the one caveat I do want to say though is that say you were 20 20 years old and you in 1986 and you have $10,000 to put into both these portfolios right um You have to realize that your portfolio allocation is probably going to change over time so yes this is showing you the results that would be if you were to stay in this fund for roughly 40 years or so but you're your allocation is going to change over time which is obviously going to change these results this is assuming that you put in this 10 grand 40 years ago or so and didn't touch it the entire time these are the numbers you're going to end up with so I think this is a pretty compelling reason to actually take a harder look at the twof fund portfolio if you haven't already uh but again as you get older your risk tolerance is going to go down and you may change your allocation but these numbers don't lie and it's pretty compelling so if you got value out of this video uh take a look at our other videos um I'm making more videos for nerd wallet it's a pleasure to do so if you like my style uh click on the link down below to subscribe hit the Bell notification and like the video and also leave a comment what are your thoughts about the two fund portfolio in general
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