저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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2019년 초 시장 전망: 제레미 시겔 교수는 S&P500이 2019년 5~15% 상승할 것으로 봤다. 밸류에이션 근거: S&P500은 지난해 이익의 약 16배에 거래되어 역사적으로 싼 편이며, 65년 평균(17배 이상)보다 낮다. 이익 성장이 없어도 싸다고 주장. 금리 근거: 10년물 국채 금리가 약 2.65% 수준으로 낮아 주식에 대한 채권 경쟁이 없다고 봄. 연준 전망: 10년물이 3% 아래면 금리 인상은 없을 것으로 보며, 12월 인상은 실수였다고 평가. 경기가 강해지면 1~2회 인상 가능하나 그때는 이익 전망도 좋아진다고 봄. 경기침체 우려: 작년 2019년 이익 전망이 너무 높았지만 침체 공포도 과도하다고 봄. 실제는 그 중간일 것이며 주식은 매력적이라고 평가. 수익률곡선: 10년물과 3개월 T-bill 스프레드가 약 20~25bp로 역전 직전이지만 아직 임계점은 아니라고 설명. 연준도 이를 심각하게 인식한다고 봄. 하락장 여부: S&P500은 약세장 기준에 도달하지 않았고, 크리스마스이브 저점이 유지될 가능성이 있다고 봄. 일시적 재테스트 가능성은 언급. 고용 및 연준 대차대조표: 실업률이 3.6%로 50년래 최저 수준이며, 월 15~20만 고용 증가는 노동공급 부족으로 지속이 어렵다고 봄. 연준 대차축소(QT)는 초과지급준비금이 약 1조 달러 있어 아직 문제가 아니며, 연준 기준금리가 지준부리율(2.40%)을 넘으면 긴축 신호라고 설명. 무역 갈등: 중국과 25% 관세 등 무역전쟁은 트럼프가 주식시장을 의식해 전면전까지는 가지 않을 것이며, 결국 합의에 이를 것이라고 봄. 중국도 경기둔화 부담으로 합의 동기가 있다고 평가. 결론: 경기침체 없이 완만한 둔화가 이어지면 주식시장에 좋은 한 해가 될 것이라는 낙관적 입장.
다듬은 글
let's get another viewpoint on this joining us now from the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel it's good to talk to you professor when we're talking about your view of 2019 you think that the market should return between 5% and 15% how do we get there amid all of this fear and uncertainty that is currently plaguing the market well I just look at at valuation levels we're we are selling SP at 16 times last year's earnings so that is a cheap level historically in fact over the last 65 years it's sold it on average over 17 so even if we don't have any earnings growth this year this is a cheap market especially look at the interest rates oh my god I hardly believe the ten-year a to 65 no competition from fixed income I think we can really have quite a good year in the stock market all right so when we're taking a look at some of the warning signs that investors are paying attention to the risk of recession a flattening yield curve whether we're going to see consumer confidence falling off of these incredibly good levels from 2018 what are you concerned about well first of all I'm not concerned about the Fed I with with the 10-year at it it's level that we see now we're not gonna see any increases if it's below 3% I think the Fed is really gonna defer I actually think it was a mistake I don't think they should have raised in December but nonetheless I think that we don't have to worry about Fed rate hikes as long as the economy is weak now if the economy picks up we might get one or two but then the earnings outlook is gonna look a lot better than what we have today so you know you know overall what happened is that we went from a pretty rosy view way too rosy I had said last year the 2019 earnings were way too high to now oh my god there's gonna be a recession I mean the truth is going to be somewhere in between and that leaves the stock market I think very attractive now do you think it's significant Jeremy that for all the hand wringing all year long about the inverted yield curve it actually never inverted if you look at the main choose tens and for all the hand wringing about a bear market the SMP actually never reached a bear market it got a few points away from that or just does that stuff not matter right no I mean that does matter and it did the ten year what I look at is a 90 day Treasury bill in the ten year and it did not vote inverse it's about 20 25 basis points so we're not quite at that critical level and that's why the Fed cannot afford to go you know any higher with the ten year as it is now they do take that seriously we didn't hit a bear market will that Christmas Eve low hold my feeling is it very well might we might get a little bit of a test on it the first few days of this month but you know Christmas Eve I think was was it was a pretty gloomy look at what the world outlook is even a slowing outlook I don't think really justifies how how low stock prices are Jeremy you've typically been bullish I can go back a long time and it's been the right call by the way but I you know I wonder in this environment or when you could imagine is there anything that would turn your view to one that would be perhaps a bit less sanguine yeah well I mean clearly a recession is gonna bring the market down more I don't I don't see it in the cards but let's face it it's a delicate matter for the Federal Reserve we're gonna get the employment report on Friday some say it's gonna go down to three point six percent that's a 50-year low we can't have 150 to 200 thousand increase every month unless we get more people feeding into the workforce which doesn't look likely so the bottom line is the Fed had it squeezed enough to get us down to around 120,000 now you know do we have that precision as a Fed ever engineered a soft landing not exactly there's always been a wobble here and I think that's exactly what the market feels we're gonna be a wobbling to a a slowdown but not a recession and until we see that clear people say I'm going to be cautious but if there isn't a recession I think you've got really great values of course obviously a trade war but Trump can't afford that now because he knows that stock markets and so it's early we'll look at that favorably and he does care about the stock market so some deal is gonna be reached on China we avoid a recession yeah we're gonna have a really good market Jeremy you I mean the Fed rate hikes get all the attention in the headlines do you think the fact that they are trimming their balance sheet unwinding years of stimulus through QE one two and three is having any impact on the markets either psychologically or mechanically well the the thing is there are still excess reserves there that can be absorbed what if what we will see if if the Fed gets too tight in its quantitative tightening in other words getting rid of reserves we will see the Fed Funds rate rise above the level that they pay on reserves which is now 2.40 but that's exactly where the Fed Funds rate is now which means there's all these excess reserves that the banks are putting on deposit at the Fed if it ever rises above 240 Wow look out that means they are getting too tight but I think the Fed is aware of that they still think there's somewhere around a trillion dollars of excess reserves that they could absorb but they know they can't go beyond that because then they lift it up from the reserve level and that's tantamount to another tightening of of the race so they're watching that but I don't think right now that that is a problem for the markets and you were talking a little bit about trade there how big a deal is the trade tension at this point the standoff with China because when the terrorists first were talked about and implemented there were a lot of experts who who pood the big impact on the American economy and now in note after note that you see from investment banks and from in in articles in the journal and CNBC comm you see trade mentioned as a very important factor in what happens in 2019 well certainly I mean if we go to 25% on all their products that is a big thing you know clearly with the weakening of of sentiment and the stock market you know those are those are factors that could precipitate a real slow down but you know I mean you know Trump's advisors are gonna tell them that I mean maybe Peter Navarro is not gonna tell him that but certainly Cavallo is gonna is gonna tell him that and knows that and so he knows that he's got a really tread very very carefully on this he can't afford given the markets to go full scale on that on that trade war I just don't think it's possible and you have to wonder how much pressure the Chinese leadership is under at the same time - with the economy as long as they try to get a deal you know really in some ways the weak data out of China plays more into the Trump scheme of things they can't afford a big slowdown either so I think they're both motivated to come to an agreement Jeremy Siegel professor at Wharton thank you sir appreciate your insight thank you very much in the happy new year happy new year
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