Ken Fisher Says Energy Prices Have Less Impact on Markets Than You Might Think

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결론: 에너지 가격 상승은 과거보다 경제·증시에 미치는 영향이 작으며, 경기침체를 유발할 정도는 아니다. 에너지의 GDP 비중이 수십 년간 하락해 영향력이 줄었고, 1970년대 OPEC 충격과 달리 지금은 여러 요인이 겹친 일시적 현상이라는 주장. 현재 가격 상승 배경: 코로나 봉쇄 중 에너지 설비 폐쇄 후 급격한 정상화, 유럽의 역대 최저 풍속으로 인한 풍력 부족, 러시아 가스 흐름 등 지정학적 요인. 미국 화석연료 생산은 증가 중. 그린뉴딜식 규제가 단기~중기 화석연료에 큰 영향을 주지 않을 것으로 봄. 이유는 조정법안(reconciliation bill)이 석탄 주 출신인 조 맨친 상원 에너지위원장에 의해 희석될 것이기 때문. 에너지 가격 상승은 가치주에 더 부정적이며 성장주는 에너지 민감도가 낮음. 높은 에너지 가격은 가치주 대비 성장주에 유리한 환경이라는 해석. 증시는 그런 환경에서도 대체로 양호할 것으로 봄. 경제는 코로나 이전 정상 성장률로 점차 둔화되는 흐름. 시장은 보통 약 3~30개월 뒤의 상황을 선반영하므로, 현재 이슈는 그 시점엔 오래된 뉴스가 될 것이라는 견해. 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 방향 예측은 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. energy prices have been going up oil prices natural gas prices i think you know that uh there's a natural tendency for people to over emphasize the impact of energy on the economy and capital markets the fact is that in my lifetime energy as a percentage of gdp domestically in the united states of america in western europe and around the world has been falling as we have become ever more energy efficient in our production of goods and services and as that's continued to become the case energy which had a big impact once upon a time on things has had ever less of an impact it has less of an impact now than it did 10 years ago less of an impact 10 years ago than 20 years before that most uh people of my age or older remember very well uh the energy lines during the opec oil cartel of the 1970s and how devastating that was to the economy it wasn't the singular thing that did that then it worked in conjunction with some other negative forces that were going on in parallel at the same time but it was a negative force of significance but as energy has become a smaller and smaller component we've seen not only that energy has less impact but also we see more diverse streams of energy now in this particular time period some of what's gone on is the aftermath reaction to the come back from the coveted lockdowns and during the code lockdowns lots of energy capacity was shut down not expecting to have to come back so fast secondarily in europe uh this year we've had the lowest winds on record in europe set up over the last couple of decades to be ever more wind dependent which has left them in a shortage position demanding energy that comes from elsewhere and uh then finally you've got some geopolitical factors going on uh in terms of features like the flow of gas from russia into europe that uh are of some import and probably take some time to wind their way through but the turbines in europe will blow from wind again uh american uh fossil fuel producers are increasing production uh there's a lot of fear that um and i don't mean this to potentially fly in the face of anything you may believe or disbelieve but there's a lot of concerns about how green new deal type forces might impact fossil fuels in the short to intermediate term and yet i'm going to tell you that that'll happen not pretty much not at all and and to understand why that will happen pretty much not at all all you have to do is look at the reconciliation bill and then remember that the chairman of the senate energy committee is one uh joe manchin from west virginia coal state to see that the things that so many people hope and other people fear just probably get watered down hugely because it's pretty obvious joe manchin's got a fair amount of determination to do what he thinks is right for his state but all of these features say to me that the energy price spike is to be less than people have thought it would be over sooner and in that regard because energy's less important that used to be less impact on the economy and is it a negative when energy prices go up yeah a little bit uh is it catastrophic enough to cause recession or a bad economy no and then remember finally uh as one last point that so many people right now are of the view that value stock should be better than growth but in reality rising energy prices impact negatively the value stocks more than the growth stocks growth stocks are not ones that are typically energy sensitive much at all so to the extent that you do see high energy prices it's an argument against the value stocks for the growth stocks the market should do okay in that environment the economy should do okay might subdue a little bit but we're moving into slower growth in the economy anyway we're moving back to the norms that existed before covet and by the time you've gotten to 12 months from now that'll be pretty assured and remember finally that which i always say which is markets are always pre-pricing the next approximate three to thirty months and the things that have been going on right here and now that's not what the market's focused on really people talk about things but that's what's being pre-priced what the market's focused on is what'll be out there three to thirty months from now and all of this will be old news by then thank you