저자: ThomasJames—소속미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 Ken Griffin과 Citadel Securities가 자금난에 처해 있으며, 이로 인해 숏 포지션 청산(숏 스퀴즈)과 대형 시장 붕괴 가능성이 커진다고 주장한다. 정치 자금 측면: Griffin이 DeSantis 지지를 중단했다는 Daily Mail 보도를 근거로, 과거 공화당 연방 캠페인에 7,100만 달러를 기부했던 그가 자금을 철회한 것은 현금 부족 때문이거나 DeSantis가 그의 요구를 더 이상 따르지 않기 때문이라고 해석한다. 파생상품 부채 측면: Citadel의 Security Sold Not Yet Purchased는 2022년 감소했으나, 파생상품 부채(주식 풋옵션·토털리턴스왑)는 2018년 2,390억 달러에서 2019년 동일, 2020년 3,450억, 2021년 4,700억, 2022년 5,650억 달러로 증가했다고 주장한다. 이는 현재 약 5,000억 달러 규모이며, Goldman(3,850억 달러)보다 크다는 주장이다. 청산 구조 측면: Bank of America가 Citadel 순파생자산·부채의 87.2%에 대한 청산·프라임 브로커 역할을 하므로, 한쪽이 무너지면 다른 쪽도 위험하다는 연쇄 리스크를 언급한다. 시장 전망 측면: BofA의 Michael Hartnett이 금리 6%, 실업률 4% 상회 시 주가 하락을 전망했다고 인용한다. 발언자는 이를 대형 붕괴 신호로 해석하며, 밈주식 재부상과 S&P 500 약세 신호를 함께 제시한다. 헤지펀드 동향 측면: JP Morgan과 Goldman이 글로벌 헤지펀드들이 미국 상장주 하락 베팅을 청산 중이라고 고객에게 알렸다고 언급한다. 현재는 빅테크·고위험 성장주 숏 청산이 중심이며, 이후 소형주, Bed Bath & Beyond, Nokia, AMC, GameStop 순으로 확대될 것이라고 주장한다. 파산 지표 측면: 미국 기업 파산 신청 건수가 2020년 팬데믹 정점 및 2009년 수준까지 증가했다는 차트를 근거로 들며, 헤지펀드 파산이 늘면 스퀴즈가 본격화된다고 전망한다. 리스크 측면: 주가 대폭락에는 마켓메이커 파산 같은 트리거 이벤트가 필요하다고 보며, 현재는 근거가 불충분한 추측성 주장이 많다. 영상 내 MooMoo 유료 광고 언급이 포함되어 있다. 출연자 전망 측면: 발언자는 Citadel·Griffin의 재무 압박이 커지고 있으며 시장 붕괴와 숏 스퀴즈가 임박했다고 본다. 구체적 가격 목표나 기간은 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
today I want to talk about how Ken Griffin insipido Securities are running out of cash I want to explain why Ken has withdrawn his funding of political campaigns and why Citadel Securities is in big trouble and how they're hiding the truth ey information so Frank tweeted saying I bet Ken is running tight on funds and references this article from The Daily Mail so this article says the billionaire hedge fund manager who is Akita Santa's backer has paused his support for the Florida Governor's ailing 2024 campaign it says the Chicago base hedge funder had been expected to be a major descent it's backer but now billionaire Ken Griffin is reportedly reconsidering support for the santis now this article says his excuse is that he's frustrated with desantis's lack of progress in the GOP Primary race and as a result has hit the pause button Ken Griffin was previously a mega donor giving 71 million dollars to Republican Federal campaigns in the 20 2022 midterms and has donated hundreds of millions of dollars over kids previously Ken Griffin previously said that santis has a tremendous record as governor of Florida and our country would be well served by him as president but now for some reason has withdrawn all the funding either Ken Griffin is running out of cash and is struggling more and more or the santis has decided not to do Ken Griffin's bidding any longer so this post really explains why Citadel Securities and Ken Griffin are so financially strained at the moment and also explains how they tried to hide that in their security sold not yet purchased figure now security sold not yet purchased is something that's been covered to death over the last six months to a year their figure for security sold not yet purchased had increased in 2017 18 19 20 and 2021 but somehow decreased in 2022 now it was confusing for a long time as to why sadel's security sold not yet purchased position had decreased but this post really explains exactly what's going on so with Citadel and with a lot of other hedge funds market makers and major Banks you have two things you have the Securities themselves like shares and you have the derivatives like put and call options and Total return swaps obviously you can short the shares directly or you can take out put options or Total return swaps and take indirect short positions now while the figure for security sold not yet purchased had decreased let's check out what happened to citadel's derivative figures now these figures are all stated in millions of dollars so where it says 239 000 that's actually 239 billion so back in 2018 Citadel had 239 billion dollars of total derivative liabilities just looking specifically at the equity liabilities AK put options and Total return swaps it was 219 billion now in 2019 that figure actually stayed exactly where it was at 239 billion dollars of derivative liabilities but in 2020 that figure increased from 239 billion to 345 billion in 2021 it increased from 345 billion up to 470 billion and in 2022 it actually increased once again from 470 billion all the way to 565 billion Citadel currently has half a trillion dollars in total derivative liabilities and these derivative liabilities didn't decrease in 2022 like their security sold but not yet purchased they actually increased significantly by nearly a hundred billion dollars obviously this isn't half a trillion dollars in AMC liabilities specifically it's half a trillion dollars in liabilities on the entire Market but I wonder just how much of this half a trillion dollars in liabilities that they're actually stuck in and cannot close out of and he said in conclusion Citadel now has over 500 billion dollars in equity derivatives while Goldman flipping sacks only has 385 billion and Citadel also has more in equity derivatives than every Commercial Bank that isn't JP Morgan Goldman Sachs Citibank or Bank of America combined and what's also really interesting is that Bank of America also serves as the clearing and Prime broker for 87.2 percent of citadel's net derivative assets and liabilities so basically saying if Citadel dies then Bank of America dies just like arcados did to Credit Suisse or if Bank of America goes under then Citadel disappears too also guys and a cash reward when you sign up to MooMoo and make the required qualifying deposit signing up to minimum is free it just requires a temporary deposit and it's a really great way to support me and to help support the channel and MooMoo is also very easy to use they've got tons of technical indicators and they've even got options trading as well which is also really interestingly timed as Bank of America have just released a new article saying that stocks are headed for a big collapse Michael Hartnett Chief investment strategist for Bank of America said in a note today that rather than seeing a long lasting bull market the recent jump represents a big rally before a big collapse and he said once the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates to six percent and unemployment tops four percent which would indicate a recession stocks will fall and that's why Robert tweet is saying Apes we are so close come on now look at all the fud and the panic in their voices this really reminds me of all of those videos and photos of Ken Griffin looking progressively worse as the last couple of years have gone by and where his voice has been sounding more and more stressed and all of these institutions are getting more and more panicked calling for a massive collapse in the stock market but obviously stocks don't usually just collapse out of nowhere especially not giant collapses like 50 plus there needs to be some kind of trigger event for such a massive collapse a trigger event like a market maker going bankrupt and Bloomberg has also posted saying investors are piling into meme stocks once again which could be dangerous for the broader Market they've said investors are fascinated with meme stocks again as they hunt through lower quality names searching for turns and in a process they're raising a red flag for the S P 500 Index saying when some of the most heavily shorted stocks in the market rally like meme stocks are doing right now and safe havens like consumer staple slump investors should prepare for a few days of weakness in the broader market and interestingly JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have been telling clients that Global hedge funds have rushed to unwind bets that U.S listed stocks will fall this is basically saying JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have been warning clients that Global hedge funds have been unwinding their short positions and this is due to the recent persistent rally that is threatening their performance now so far I think it's only their short positions in big tech stocks and in Risky growth stocks that have been Unwound so far but obviously if this current rally does continue and shorts end up continuing to be squeezed they'll be forced to close out of more of their short positions obviously next up on the chopping block is those smaller main stocks like Bed Bath and Beyond black brain Nokia and others until finally last of all AMC GameStop you will know that I've explained before the order of risk that these hedge funds have which shorts get closed first and which shorts get close last but obviously as the shorts continue to be squeezed more and more they can't just close out of one small short position they have to close out of more and more of their short positions until finally either a all of their short positions are closed or B the fund goes bankrupt finally Carlos has tweeted just another indicator to add to your long list of why markets will soon crash hard this chart shows the increase in bankruptcy filings that have been moving up in the recent few weeks you can see bankruptcy filings right now are currently even to where they were back in 2020 in Peak pandemic times and back in 2009 before that so far this is only bankruptcy filings for U.S companies but it wouldn't surprise me if the number of hedge fund bankruptcies start skyrocketing as well and I think when we start seeing more and more hedge funds going bankrupt that's when the squeeze will really be upon us but
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