저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
9월 마지막 주 시장은 상승 출발 후 하락 마감. 10월 방향의 핵심은 금요일 9월 비농업고용지표이며, 지표가 너무 강하면 금리 인상 우려, 너무 약하면 경기 침체 우려가 있어 '적당히 차갑게'가 이상적이라는 시나리오 제시. 금리 전망: 10월 말~11월 1일 FOMC에서 0.25%p 인상 후 모기지금리 상승 예상. 20년물 국채금리는 단기금리를 넘어 6% 근처까지 갈 수 있으나 이는 재앙이 아니라고 주장. 과거 80~90년대에도 금리 상승기에 주식이 오른 사례가 있다고 언급. 유가: 유가 상승이 증시를 억누르고 있으며 가격이 100달러를 돌파하면 멈출 수 있다고 봄. 다만 유가와 증시 관계에 대한 통념은 틀렸다고 예고. 정부 셧다운: 셧다운 가능성이 있으며, 그 경우 고용보고서 발표가 연기될 수 있음. 셧다운 영향은 비의무 연방지출의 약 25%에 그쳐 과장됐다고 평가. 자동차 파업: UAW 파업이 확대되며 경기 둔화 요인. 포드 CEO는 비교적 합리적이나 UAW 위원장 Sean Fain은 변덕스럽다고 평가. 주식은 합의를 전제로 거래 중. 기업/종목 이벤트: 켈로그 분사(켈라노바 스낵·WK켈로그 시리얼)로 가치 해제 기대하나 주가 부진. 맥코믹은 PER 28배로 과열, 하락 추세. 몰슨쿠어스는 맥주 판매 견조하며 긍정적. 컨스텔레이션 브랜즈(코로나·모델로)에 대해 실적 기대. 옥타(OKTA)·팔로알토 네트웍스 등 사이버보안 긍정적 언급. 코나그라는 배당수익률 5%로 매력적이나 식품주는 전반적으로 부진. 리바이스 CEO 교체. 델(Dell)은 호실적 기대. 항공주(유나이티드)는 연료비 부담으로 힘이 빠졌다고 평가. 맥도날드는 프랜차이즈 갈등과 멀티플 축소 우려. FIS 글로벌은 핀테크 혼잡으로 비추천. 리스크: 고용지표 발표 지연, 셧다운, 유가 급등, 파업 확대, 금리 인상. 종합적으로 10월 상승 가능성에 조건부 낙관, 실적 시즌 전후 긍정 전망.
다듬은 글
one of entertainment but the lemmer oh yeah we came in real hot after yesterday's strong showing it sure looked like we could continue the upside trajectory at the opening but then the rally fizzled down only 60 159 points s p did 0.27 and as I geeked out a 0.14 gain after trading sharply higher the opening the corporates behind the downturn well there was a laundry list of Hazards the heated better between the automakers management and the UAW something increasingly looks like it is going off the rails then there's that bizarre internet some Warfare in Congress where House Republicans can't even agree with themselves let alone the Democrats stuck out for more that was a sore spot plus just like everything else in September the fear of higher rates and higher oil sure did Bloom over the session even though they both eventually finished lower today the reasons the result well it was a perfectly good October like rally but it fell on the shoals of September and those who bought an up Market at the open couldn't lead today's session with anything other than the usual sense of despair just another good looking start that led to a nasty day new mall like we've gotten used to over the last 30 days happen with you and me the good news when we come in next week September will be over all right speaking of next week we want to be as relevant as possible with our game plan so let's not bury the lead on on because on Friday it's gonna go right to it on Friday we get the September non-farm payroll report and this is the single most important number we get from the government if we're going to have a strong October we need to see we got to start with this start with a softer unemployment number that shows some slack in the labor force otherwise we'll spend the whole month worrying that the fed's gonna lower them boom on us to cool things down now this is a tough call because we don't want to see any sort of wholesale economic collapse because then we worried about earnings earnings per share earnings cut forecast down but we also want to see consistently strong unemployment numbers because then fed Chief J Powell has no wiggle room and interest rates are going higher starting with the longer end now I continue to believe that come the end of October or to November 1 when the FED meets and then talks we'll get quarter point rate hike and mortgage and rates will follow I think the yield curve which has been inverted will finally switched back to normal and the yield of the 20-year treasury will likely pass short rates and go near six percent but that will not be a disaster people it will not see I know that that it'll be seen as negative for the stock market but if you hop in the Wayback machine with Mr Peabody you'll find out that we've had plenty of markets in the 80s and 90s when rates went higher and stocks rallied anyway rallied strong in some cases of course if the other if the employment data is on the subject side and it looks like we're at the beginning of sustained weakness then that that might be done tightening in that case longer term rates may start going down the market could be abused and that's why the Bulls are rooting for economic weakness it's the only thing that can make the FED stop it could be an explosion of stock prices if we get what I just mentioned at the same time our markets have been held hostage by oil so the lab report may be less expected less important than we typically expect if the price approved breaks through 100 I think it might stop there but I get the concern and by the way later in the show you can hear that all the stuff about oil that you have been related to in terms of the stock market is wrong so don't draw any nasty conclusions just yet it's also highly possible that we could have a government shutdown in that case we won't even see the labor report until Congress passes the budget wonderful situation where we can't even get get more time to agonize about the economy and the Fed so this does not come out on Friday if the government's shut down I want to be clear you know that so you don't think I've LED you strike so uh not too hot not too cold but closer to cold and we could be in great shape but anything else and yet we're gonna have problems and we're going to see a little September tinge October now back to Monday the first day of the fourth quarter and it starts with something that I've we've covered very well that I think is kind of exciting that's the breakup of Kellogg's into kelanova which is the snack food business and W.K Kellogg that's the North American cereal business I suspect that grow Authority investors will actually be attracted to snack spin-off which includes Cheez-Its Pringles and Pop-Tarts among other goodies that may not be all that good for you but sure do tastes good they're trying to unlock value here although Kellogg's stock hasn't been a winner since the breakup was announced people hate the food stocks I hope we'll get some news on both the government shutdown and the auto strikes either way I see both situations I mean these are agents of economic decline the government closing only impacts 25 of the non-mandatory federal spending so it's not as big a deal as it sounds but the auto stroke is truly a thorny issue that keeps expanding and if it keeps expanding next week it will not be all that good it will slow down the economy the stocks trade like there will be a deal though but when you listen to the head of the United Auto worker Sean Fain he seems like a bit of a capricious power are so who knows especially when he's got the president of the United States walking the pill line him he must feel completely emboldened right by the way I thought Ford Jim Farley laid out things pretty straight this afternoon about how generous Ford's office been but that just brought cat calls from Fame I got to it is getting really personal I don't like that Jay pal speaks Monday among other fed folks and it's not clear whether he'll say anything it moves the needle but remember his bias is to stop inflation not to boost growth even if it causes double you know gigantic job losses frankly I doubt he'll make us feel uh better about things now he obviously doesn't want gigantic losses he's a very good man but in order to see rates go down we're going to have much more unemployment we have to Tuesday we get results from McCormick okay the spice company and they also make seasonings and by the way they have a new CEO Brandon Foley the package food group has been out of favor as I mentioned before with kelanova that's important because there's a belief that we'll have to roll back the price increases from the last few years by the way didn't Costco really say that didn't didn't hear that from Craig jelenick I did McCormick currently sells for 28 times earnings which is most likely too high for its cohort and that's why the stock has been steadily declining now with that here's a good one we've got an announcement from Molson course that's the iconic Beer Company Liquor's only been okay of late this year's been actually a down for the what we call the Browns and the clears but beer sales are still strong and this company has been firing pretty much all cylinders I like the stock but not as much as I like constellation Brands the parent of Corona and Modelo which we own for the travel trust constellation reports on Thursday I expect a good number they might give us a hint of the major restructuring that could be an asset their analysts meeting in November lots of light there Wednesday at Kramer staple OCTA sounds like a food company well we got some OCTA some good Niagara no it's not it's cyber security silly it's going to hold its uh meeting the octave is going to call it's called the octane well like workday Rising I mean you get these things Salesforce dreamforce all right maybe it's just the guys out west they have a silly they have a strange sense of humor uh here I think CEO topekin and we'll talk about the difficulty of stopping the hackers because they prey on employees to try to be helpful when the bad guys pretend to be their co-workers the bad guys never stop which is terrific for OCTA but uh and for the security cohort yeah at Cyrus true to court in general but that's why we have such a big position for Palo Alto networks for the trust Thursday con Agra Branch reports this Talk's been a one-way ticket to the danger zone lately flying from the 40s probably from 40 at the beginning of the year down to 28 dollars today and that supports a five percent yield that's rather remarkable but then again if you can get five percent from Treasures you might think twice given how ConAgra stock has been acting these food stocks are just terrible you might be intrigued by Levi's which quite an upgrade this week chip Berg will be departing a CEO student replaced by Michelle Goss lately she's late of Kohl's apparel like food has been totally out of style on Wall Street except for Lululemon which can do no wrong now if there's an analyst being that can move a stock I think it's going to be Thursday's gathering for Dell I know per se but don't don't per sect makes you money here they reported to a stunning quarter and we're going to give a great forecast last time this is a totally unsung story with a stock that could have more room to run and then the book and the labor report will decide whether we can truly rally in October bottom line if you want to know where the Market's headed no numbers more important than the labor Department's non-farm payroll that we get on Friday but again we won't get it if the government shuts down it can thread the needle on the softer side we could come into real earnings season which starts the week after with a decent and positive head of Steve let's go to Greg in New York Greg Hi how are you Jim um I'm a big fan of your show oh thank you for everything what you're doing out there for us for investors thank you Greg I greatly appreciate that how can I help yes my question is about Airlines uh specifically about United Airlines what should I do all spell I'm not a big fan of the airlines here they finally have kind of run out of steam the uh what I would tell you is this this fuel cost is really kind of making so that they're really on their heels we have to see you all go down sustained fashion before people are going to come back to them true whether it's right or not let's go to Frank in Florida Frank hey Jim thanks for taking my call and I appreciate everything you do for us I know you're an Eagles fan all right all right now if we play the Dolphins it's gonna be Monday night maybe I'll take Tuesday off I don't know if we don't take Tuesday off if we lose maybe I'll take Tuesday off what's up what is it there you go buy or sell FIS Global oh man okay I mean I saved this because I've been looking at everything that's fintech everything's related to the banks everything that's anything involving with the banks are clients and I have to tell you another payment service provider even though it's one of the original ones I'm not going to endorse it crowded and the market doesn't like them hey how about we go to Marvin my home state New Jersey Marvin hey Jim listen I got two things for you number one you've got the best educational investing show ever on TV congratulations for that thank you thank you be careful going home because the weather is brutal yeah my wife told me it's very difficult to get from one area to another about three hours I I appreciate that I'm concerned myself be safe thank you just wanted to ask you about McDonald's why is it taking us 10 hit okay it's a great question and it's getting interesting but there's been some uh uh I I say some chatter between the franchisees and management that doesn't seem to be going that well I also think by the way it sells it 23 times earnings and we're paying less for every single stock some of them might just say listen I'm not going to pay that with interest rates of five I'm only gonna pay 20 times earnings and that's that multiple contraction that we see in all the great growth stocks next week it's all about the job support if we're going to have a strong October it has to start with a jobs report it shows some slack in the labor force I sure hope we get the number the garbage shutdown doesn't stop it oh man tonight September's been a tough part a month for the market as you know but that didn't stop OS of IPOs from making their debut on recapping all the deals we saw this month and where we stand out the fan first die down you maybe still holding back then it seems like every rally in oil is bad news with the stock market so how should you really interpret the relationship between the two it's gonna shock it I'm going off to charge for the help of the legendary Larry Williams who told you not to see you in September because it would be a bad month and you called in and you stopped me on primary services and motor motor care and so tonight I am turning in my homework and sharing where I come down on the two names one of them seems very attractive listen find out which one k
Comments 0