저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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Yardeni는 미국채 10년물 금리가 3.65%(2024.9)에서 약 4.75%까지 오른 점을 짚으며 물가 재가속 우려와 금리 인하 축소(none-and-done) 가능성을 경고했다. 그럼에도 경제 회복력과 생산성 호황을 근거로 S&P500 연말 7,000 목표와 2025 주당순이익 285달러 전망을 유지했다. 금리 5%는 주식과 비교해 매력적인 대안이라 리밸런싱(주식→채권) 가능성을 언급했지만, 주식 매도는 권하지 않고 조정 시 매수 기회를 보라고 했다. 섹터로는 은행·금융, 기술, 산업재를 유지하고 미국 비중 확대, 대형주(S&P500) 대 중소형주 선호를 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
stocks giving back gains after today's cooler than expected inflation data our next guest now cautions there could be more downside if tomorrow's CPI report comes in hot let's bring in Ed yard Denny of yard Deni research welcome it's good to see you again thank you Scott why do you have that view well look I I think the big issue for the stock market is the bond market and the bond market uh we argued back in August of last year I was discounting uh too many rate cuts by the FED we thought the that the economy was going to prove to be resilient in strong and that turned out to be the case and here we are up from 3.65% on September 16th of last year to 4 75% thereabouts uh now and so that uh a lot of that had to do with the better than expected growth of the economy with the FED probably going on pause and we also have some stickiness in the inflation numbers so I think uh the markets are going to be focusing on the areas of uh where inflation seems to be stuck above 2% and a lot of that is in the so-called super core uh which of course is uh Services excluding uh rent inflation uh and in addition to that we've got Energy prices going up here and it was Goods deflation over the past several months that helped to bring inflation down it wasn't services so now we we've got to be concerned that the next couple of months we may have an inflation scare I mean doesn't the PPI though tend to be a better read into the pce yeah which certainly is a more important gauge on on inflation at least according to what the FED watches oh you're absolutely right it's a very good point uh I I would say that the month over month number was better than expected but when you look at it year-over-year you're still seeing an upward Trend in the services area and uh so uh you know the best of the inflation news is behind us for the next few months uh but again that's not the only issue for the for the bond market or the stock market I think both of them have had to Discount the fact that the FED may very well be at at none and done outlook for um the federal funds rate for the rest of the year and I'm not sure everybody's uh understood that meanwhile as you said just a while ago a few minutes ago with one of your other guests uh we're pretty close to 5% I think there's something magical about that number I think you'll see as some rebalancing out of stocks and into bonds I think 5% is an awfully attractive rate may you changing your view on the equity Market you've been positive you've been bullish um are you are you moving that ball um in in the different in a different direction as a result of the backup in rates yeah no good question I'm no I'm still looking for 7,000 on the S&P 500 by the by year end I still think that the economy is going to be resilient I still expect that uh we're in a productivity growth boom and I think that S&P 500 earnings are going to be $285 a share this year uh which I think is probably one of the highest on on the street so I remain very positive on on the earning situation uh maybe it's wishful thinking but I'm hoping for a buying opportunity I'm I'm not uh recommending that anybody sell into this uh but if uh you've got some cash I I would look for an opportunity to buy but at the same time I would also recommend buying some bonds at 5% I mean cash is looking pretty good at 5% too uh so there is there's competition again I mean I guess that's the point that you're making for certain but what happens if the FED let's just I don't know if the the FED doesn't cut anymore this year however outlandish that that might be maybe once maybe none is that a problem or does it not matter as long as the economy remains strong I think it would happen because the economy remains strong you know for the past three years there's been a lot of talk about a recession I think that's uh largely behind us it may come back of course but I think uh interest rates have normalized I think 4 and a half% on the on the 10year bond yield maybe plus minus uh 20 or even 50 basis points is kind of the range we're going to see for the next few years and that's what we had before the great financial crisis so I think it just reflects the fact that the economy is resilient it's it's growing at a at a decent pace I think it's going to grow at a faster Pace because I'm very bullish on productivity and you put it all together and uh you get an economy that's uh strong with low in low moderate inflation uh and a stock market that moves higher on earnings not valuation what part of the market do you like the best right now I mean if we're talking about earnings we you know we start to get them tomorrow with the banks for example what do you like what don't you like I think you could start with the banks I think the banks will report uh solid earnings loan demand has been picking up uh the financial markets have had more volatility and their Traders are pretty good at making money in that kind of environment I think m&a is starting to to pick up uh so the banks the financials generally speaking look quite good we've got uh more deregulation coming a lot of that's going to benefit uh the banks uh fed regulator has left and will be replaced by somebody who's likely to be uh less stringent about the kind of regulations they want on banks so financials for sure uh I would say stick with technology I wouldn't be selling technology I'd be looking for opportunities maybe to to buy some more Industrials still look fine to me uh so really all the all the sectors that we've been uh pushing uh have done quite well and uh we're going to maybe overstay our welcome here but we're going to stay with them and we would uh overweight the US relative to foreign portfolios uh we would overweight the s&p500 relative to the smid caps and we think the S&P 493 outside the Magnificent 7 are all going to be viewed increasingly over the next few years as tech stocks uh these days you either make Tech or you use Tech to increase your your efficiency your productivity your relationship with customers and those companies are going to show good earnings I'm expecting profit margins to to go to a record high this year and next year
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