저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 1월 CPI 발표 전후 단기 변동성을 인정하면서도 시장이 저점 근처라고 보고, S&P500 실적 성장과 주식 대비 채권의 상대 가치를 근거로 주식 보유를 강조한다. 연준 금리 인하는 1회 정도 기대하며, 비트코인은 단기 조정(70,000 지지 가능성)을 언급하면서도 장기적으로 200~250까지 상승할 수 있다고 본다. 현재 90,000 부근은 좋은 진입점이라고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 700 points. A strong labor market report has bolstered the case for the Fed to pause rate cuts in January. We're connected with Tom Lee, Chief Investment Officer and Head of Research at Fundstrat Capital. He's a commentator on CNBC, and I mentioned you earlier because I remember you being generally positive about the market this year, but with some concern in the short term.
Most of your recent predictions were based less on the strength of the economy than on inflation data, like when you predicted the S&P would rise 8% due to inflation or something like that. So, this week we are expecting inflation data. There are concerns, and I attribute much of the market weakness to that.
Are these numbers important? This is important because, as you know, we have been in a correction for almost a month, 23 trading sessions. This Wednesday is an important day as it is a possible turning point for the markets and I would like to see the CPI below 0.25%, that would add confidence to the markets.
In addition, I think corporate reports will be a positive catalyst. But investors will have to weather the volatility in the short term as bond yields have made people nervous, although that doesn't necessarily worsen the long-term outlook. Are profitability indicators accurate or do they give a false signal?
You sound like you're not sure about this week's inflation data. I will have a better understanding of the situation over the coming days as we finalize our expectations. But the only thing holding us back is that last year's hurricanes distorted the quality of inflation data, because, for example, the number of hotel bookings increased due to these natural disasters.
The same thing is going to happen now with the fires in Los Angeles, and I think that will also distort used car prices because a lot of cars have to be replaced. Do you think that if it weren't for these distortions, inflation wouldn't be such a big problem? And when you talk about a turning point in the markets after a monthly decline, that doesn't mean a further decline, right?
Do you think we might hit bottom this week? Yes, our technical analyst Mark Newton believes that the 5700 level could be a turning point. This could happen on Wednesday, perhaps 2% below current levels, but that's where the market could hold out. I think if we could clear this fog of uncertainty—by the way, Waller even said last week that most of the inflation last year was related to notional prices, meaning real inflation was much lower.
I think this is still relevant. Inflation is weaker if you look at housing and so on. So once we get over this noise, investors shouldn't get too upset. I believe that the reporting season will be the factor that will solidify everything. Look, if S&P earnings growth is 10%, excluding energy, and revenue growth is 5%, that's a really good reason to own the stock.
Has the Fed become less significant now with its rates? I do n't care where they are... you know, that's not what I base my market predictions on. Are people still so eager for a few more rate cuts? I think we're lucky to have what we already have. We have to live with this and just hope that inflation doesn't return.
I agree with you. I think the best scenario this year is one cut from the Fed, because the economy is strong enough, and they are still "dovey," meaning they are moving towards neutral. But if they delay rate cuts until 2026-2027, it will go a long way in supporting markets. I think part of the hesitation about the shares now is due to the fact that a new administration is starting work .
What? Oh, exactly. Yes. And you know , we actually retraced that growth since November, rising 7% in 23 trading days. And now we gave 5%, and another 2% would simply return us to the starting point in the same 23 trading days. Do you think stocks are expensive or not right now? We've rolled back, as you mentioned, but people keep talking about the P/E ratio and how it's historically at the upper end.
Do you think it's expensive, or do we have enough profitability to support all of this? To me, a 10-year bond, even if it yields 5%, is worth 20 P/E. The median P/E for the S&P is 17. So I think stocks offer much better value than bonds right now. And 5% is probably not the level at which rates will remain.
This is most likely a point of deviation. Tom, what does the Bitcoin movement tell you ? So, we're at 91,000. What is that ? Is this a signal or a sign of something in such an analysis? Stupid Fed. Yes. She is not lowering the rates . Yes, Bitcoin has fallen by about 15% from its highs, which is a completely normal correction for a hypervolatile asset .
It follows global liquidity a bit, but we are still early in the halving cycle. So, I think Bitcoin in the near term…our technical analyst thinks that the 70,000 level is where we can hold, and that presents a big opportunity because I think Bitcoin is going to be one of the most performant assets. So you're holding it, but you still think it's going to fall to 70,000, or do you think that's the bottom, in which case you'd still buy at the price?
Yes. There are Fibonacci levels there . One of the levels is 70. Say it again. There are levels of correction. You are rolling back from where there was growth. So 70 is one of the levels. It can drop to 50 with something. But again, this is not a new level. This is just a touch point before growth begins.
OK. Let me ask you another question. For those watching us who don't have Bitcoin or are thinking about buying it at these prices, are you saying this is a fair and good price to enter, or are you advising us to wait because you think the price will go lower? You know, Bitcoin is something to focus on in the long term.
I don't think anyone is going to lose money buying here at 90. If they're trying to time it, maybe they'll get lucky and it'll drop to 70. But I think Bitcoin could become significantly more expensive this year. You know, maybe 200, 250. So I think 90 is still a good entry point.
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