저자: JimRickards · 외국인
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금 가격은 연준의 고금리 유지로 단기적으로 억눌려 있으며, 시스템이 깨질 때까지 금리가 오를 것이라는 전제에서 결국 연준 피벗과 통화 증발로 금이 급등할 것이라는 주장. 금 가격 억제 배경: 금 가격을 움직이는 주체는 헤지펀드이며, 이들은 달러 대비 금의 상대 수익률을 보고 매매하므로 금리가 오를수록 금 롱이 불리해진다. 과거 사례: 리먼 사태 당시 금은 1,000달러 부근에서 약 680달러로 하락했다가, 이후 인플레 우려로 반등했다. 2006~2007년 리처즈 측은 이를 예측해 고객 포지션을 잡아 2008년에 수익을 냈다고 주장. 현재 전망: 연준이 시스템이 깨질 때까지 금리를 올릴 것이며, 그 과정에서 주식·부동산 등 자산이 20~40% 이상 폭락할 가능성이 있다고 봄. 그때 금은 200~400% 상승할 수 있으며 온스당 7만7천 달러 이상, 나아가 1만 달러 이상도 거론. 투자 조언: 포트폴리오의 약 10% 금 배분 권장(기관 평균 1~2%보다 높음). 금은 변동성이 크지만 장기 우상향 기대. 1998년 이후 600% 이상 상승. 실물 확보 리스크: 급등 시 일반 투자자는 실물 금을 구하기 어려워질 수 있으므로 지금 미리 포지션을 잡을 것을 권고. 리스크·조건: 금리 인상 지속 시 금 가격 하락 요인. 연준 피벗과 대규모 통화 증발이 상승의 전제 조건. 홍보성 요소: 영상 설명란에 금 IRA 및 귀금속 투자 업체 링크와 웨비나(Austa Precious Metals) 홍보가 포함되어 있음. 출연자 전망: 리처즈는 금 상승을 강하게 주장. 레이 달리오, 지정학 분석가 알러 맥클라우드 등도 출연.
다듬은 글
is the price of gold being manipulated this has long been a subject of debate among economists and gold investors to better understand the benefits of gold and dispel the many myths surrounding this precious metal we will hear from Jim Rickards Ray Delio and geopolitical analyst aler McLoud the uncertainty ahead of the event is obviously suppressing the price of gold and silver well the FED has no alterntive but to raise rates until the system breaks as to um the effect on gold and silver the reason it has an effect is because the people who are driving the price are basically hedge funds and what they're looking at is a trade which is very very simple you buy gold sell dollar or you sell dollar buy gold never take delivery y that is what they do so what they're looking at if you like is the relative return on the dollar versus gold I mean gold does pay an interest but you know you got to actually have it in order to pay the interest so the further that interest interest rates rise the more disadvantage dis disadvantageous it is for a hedge fund to go long of gold contracts we are rapidly approaching a situation as I said earlier whereby the FED will raise interest rates until the system breaks the last time the system broke it broke in a relatively minor way and that was when Leman failed now I know you might think my use of the word minor is perhaps not justified but compared with what I see coming I think it is Justified what happened then was that the price of gold from just under $1,000 I think down to around about 680 why because all the Keynesian boys were running out of what they perceived as risk into what they perceived as safety which was the dollar and it was only later that um you had the sort of the if you like the double think and they thought well hold on a minute um this is actually really very inflationary and um perhaps we ought to have gold and silver instead so you got you know you had the sort of backwash as it were we anticipated and profited by it in 2006 and 7 we could see that it was coming because it's another one of those and as it was happening there was a lack of understanding of it is first of all it was controversial so it seemed improbable cuz it never happened before in their lifetimes we knew and we then were positioned so that our clients uh did well in 2008 when most people uh did terribly and yet there was no excuses to do terribly really other than they didn't experience a for and that you need to understand how the machine works and you need to look at those probabilities and that these things have happened for deficits government debt printing of money most of the people who have opinions about those subjects are not actually studying how the Machine Works going back in history and saying what do those cause effect relationships but they have opinions so many of the critics they're I mean they're Eggheads they're uh you know they got some academic training they sit in front of their screens all day uh they repeat the same regurgitate the same can s and false statements about about gold and they think they know it all you know the the phds and the central Bankers they would like a Fiat money standard because they control it you can't control gold I mean you've got to go dig it up and mine it and it's a costly process and I don't think it's any secret that if you control money you control Behavior you control politics you control economics so what I recommend to investors you want about 10% gold you know maybe a little more if you want to lean into it if you have a higher risk appetite but not much less than that but the thing is if you have 10% in gold and it goes down 10% you you only lost 1% on your portfolio you lost 10% of 10% which is 1% chances are the other things you've got maybe land or real estate or art or maybe you're in stocks or bonds or traditional maybe you're in Alternatives Venture whatever else you're in probably doing fine you're doing fine but if this meltdown comes that I'm describing and all these other things start crashing 20 30 40% or more gold is likely to be the thing that's going up 200 300 400% I would expect it to get to $77,000 an ounce or more I again some anoun is 10,000 or higher some even higher than that that's where I think gold is going to end up again not all at once well if that happens you may be losing over here but you're making a lot of money over here so it's a little bit like fire Insurance on your house you don't want your house to burn down but heaven forbid if it does you're sure glad you have the insurance and when you write that premium check to the insurance company every month you don't think you're throwing your money away you think you're doing a smart thing so get some gold it's valal don't get too upset with the day-to-day price action but institutional allocations are about 1 and 1 12% so I'm recommending 10 there's a long way to go there people need to get a lot more gold it has gone up uh about uh 600% or more since 1998 but I would see it sort of chugging along with a lot of volatility and then I think we're getting close to the stage where it's just going to Gap up meaning you know one day it'll go up $100 an ounce and that'll make a lot of headlines and the next day it'll go up another $100 an ounce and that'll make headlines and all the Talking Heads on TV will go oh it's a bubble don't be a fool Etc but then you know the next day boom it keeps going then what happens is then people wake up and say oh gee better get some gold what they'll find is they can't get it you know they'll call the dealer sorry sold out they'll go to a coin shop sorry we're backordered they'll call the mint uh we're not taking new orders the big guys will get it you know the Sovereign wealth funds the central banks the hedge funds but everyday investors you you'll actually find that you won't be able to get it at any price so the first piece of advice I would give is position now don't wait till this happens because when it happens it a it could happen very quickly and B you may find that the things you want to go into are not available at any price as the Federal Reserve props up the strength of the US dollar with high interest rates this lowers the price of gold this is the opportunity with the inevitable fed pivot and more money printing gold will rise to paraphrase the famous hockey player Wayne Gretzky I go where to the puck is going to be not to where it was for additional resources and how to protect your wealth see the links in the video description from some of the best gold IRA and precious Ms investment companies that we have personally researched and vetted to attend an educational webinar on gold invest in held by austa precious metals see the link in the video description thank you for watching
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