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Dear viewers, investor Jim Rogers sees a breakout in the gold price on the market, but first a dip to the range of approximately $60. Since the beginning of the year, almost everyone had become accustomed to a relatively narrow trading range; no crisis could change that. But now, are US yields getting in the way?
Let's ask Michael Blumenroth from Deutsche Bank, Schirm & Tucker, a blogger under the username Roy. From January until the beginning of May, gold traded in the range of approximately $60. There wasn't much there; no impulse, no issue, no conflict could change much. Now, US yields and a new currency problem are coming.
Is that undermining the gold price? Yes, definitely. The US missiles are currently a big issue for the gold price because, of course, it 's obvious, but gold doesn't yield interest. Can I get dividends? Right now, I get 2.6 percent interest in the US for two years, and about 311 percent for 10 years.
If I were to... Firstly, I'm the best, and I know that I would now buy government bonds this year, so I would get approximately 3.1 to 3.2 percent per year. With gold, you don't get any compound interest at first, so the gold price has to rise. It seems that rising interest rates, rising yields, or the market are the natural enemy of gold, which doesn't make sense.
And this jump above the three percent mark in the US over the decades has now also pushed the gold price below $13,000 this week, which has always protected us. What triggered the sudden rise in US providers? Well, there were two things: firstly, of course, the good economic data in the US. The US is currently doing well; it can do what it wants, its tax front is also showing signs of weakness.
The debt problem is currently being pushed aside by market participants. Will it come around again and trade? That's not quite right. The company entrance is ahead, and in the second when... The 10.3 percent mark was also sustainably exceeded in March, the index practically jumped from 3.01 to 3.06 seconds.
I doubt that many were initially responsible for this; it was simply follow-up purchases. It currently looks as if the market is establishing itself in the three percent range. When yields rise, it 's a textbook effect that the corresponding domestic currency also rises. The dollar has also become significantly stronger.
Yes, we've seen that for about three weeks now, suddenly stronger US dollars and weaker euros here. How much does this affect the gold price? Is that an issue? Yes, in my opinion, an even bigger issue is the yields. One can say that the US dollar does n't get more for buying a five-year US dollar bond than for a ten-year bond from any other source.
But from Australia, or whatever, the US dollar is currently the currency that offers the best interest rates to large industrialized nations, and that naturally means... The dollar is strong, money is flowing back into the USA, which is excluded from the last year, and this is negative for gold for two reasons.
If you go to the restaurants here and buy gold, it will become more expensive because gold, when viewed in euros, is more expensive when a group in Germany pays for it when the dollar strengthens against the euro. On the other hand, if I'm a producer in Australia and see my currency depreciating, and I sell it today, but on the world market, I get more US dollars for my home currency when I exchange them back than before.
So, God is suffering a lot. And you can't even buy as much gold as you might like because it has simply become even more expensive. As a producer, you have an incentive not to sell gold right now. Okay, so as a gold-producing emerging country, I can understand this. But there is also demand for gold from another source, namely central banks in Russia and Turkey, which are suddenly buying more gold again.
They are already active gold traders. Why is this suddenly the problem? With their own currency, which is especially true for Turkey, or what effect does buying so much gold have on their own currency? It tends to have a positive impact, so all these mentioned countries naturally wanted to move away from the US dollar because the exchange rate isn't currently ideal, and they perhaps also suspect that the service will eventually collapse.
On the one hand, it's certainly true that central banks in emerging markets, which have problems with their own currencies, can buy gold in this situation. They can potentially benefit from supporting their own currency if necessary. On the other hand, it's also important for many private investors in countries whose currencies are currently experiencing a bit of a collapse, like the Turkish lira, or even more drastically in Venezuela.
Anyone buying gold there is essentially buying something that is actually traded globally against the US dollar. They can thus mitigate the effects on their own currency or even hedge against them. But the question is how much access one has to the gold market. Central banks, of course, have easy access to gold, and that's why we're currently seeing this from the...
The countries you mentioned are very, very strongly caught in the gold trap. In 200, your bank, Deutsche Bank, expects a further weakening of the dollar over the course of the year, which we have n't seen yet. Why is that, and how much gold's fate depends on it? The word "fate" is still attached to it by 60, 70, or 80 percent, and the colleagues are working on this because they believe that these effects will become less pronounced over the course of the year.
Someone is getting used to it. The USA will now, I believe, earn an additional million dollars on top of its debt. This year will eventually mean that the debt issue will resurface. Then we'll have congressional elections next to the USA, and it's possible that anyone could lose the majority. So the situation could become a bit more critical later on if the USA and colleagues still think that the dollar has absolutely proven itself against the euro over the course of the year, even reaching the correct 128.
Let's see, and that will, of course, help the gold price tremendously. Currently, it's at 1.42 US dollars. We have to admit, it's winning, but Surprisingly, compared to the beginning of the year, it's gained a little value against the euro. So you can see the gold price in dollars is suffering; it has a strong currency to move.
Okay, Jim Rogers just said this week that gold will skyrocket in the next crisis. Which crisis? Yes, that's splendid. So, which crisis? Wasn't it expected that maybe something like a war would erupt in the Middle East, or something like that? But at the moment, I don't see one. He doesn't just imagine things like that; he 's someone who knows the markets very well, so he must have had something in mind.
But he's already said it. Jan says that as long as commodity prices skyrocket, we do n't have to give it to him, especially oil or something like that. But not necessarily a quick crisis that will make the gold price skyrocket. But could it really be true? Looking at the year's progress, the outlook for gold isn't so bad because of the US dollar rally.
The World Cup is unbeaten. Then let's look at the prices. Wave Unlimited Call, but the strike price has to pass the 1944 IBM research base. We have to correct that. In any case, a Wave Unlimited Call on gold, a call on Gold, while actually moving sideways or downwards at most, is a bold move. Yes, it 's for investors to think that we're already seeing a small, temporary dip, that buying prices are coming in.
Currently, of course, sellers are more likely to change. If one expects the Omnia Sol to weaken, the gold price in US dollars will also change. Again, I don't know exactly when the volatility will occur; normally it happens in the fall, but now it's happening in the summer months. So, for investors who have a little patience, it has quite high leverage.
One has to be careful, so for someone who is optimistic in the long term, okay, a factor certificate, so 4x leverage, short, and also relatively bold because one would need a clear direction, a clear trend. Actually, not even that. This is for now for the investors' income. We now have image damage; the $1300 mark has been broken to the downside.
It's not that far from $10 or $11. Now they're talking, meaning that it will continue, and that it will go down. Perhaps this dollar rally will last a few more weeks. Months continue, so for investors who are short-term, the factor certificate here has a leverage of 4, moving further in that direction.
One must have a clear outlook that the gold price will only be printed in the short term. Thank you very much, dear viewers. Tension on the foreign exchange markets and thus tension on the commodity markets. Many commodities are skyrocketing. God is not among them. We are moving in a narrow range from the beginning of the year until the beginning of May, around 60 dollars.
Now the 1300 dollar mark has been broken to the downside. This is partly due to the rising US yields, but also partly due to the strong euro, the end of which is not yet in sight. However, Deutsche Bank assumes that it will weaken again over the course of the year. But then new developments on the gold price, of course, also daily on the stock exchange here with us.
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