저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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2025년 증시는 나스닥 +20.4%, S&P500 +16.4%, 다우 +13%로 마감했으며 AI가 주도했다. 금은 약 64% 상승해 4,300달러 이상, 은은 140% 이상 상승해 71달러 이상으로 마감했다. 은은 12월 26일 79달러 이상 급등 후 약 84달러까지 찍고 증거금 인상과 함께 조정받았다. Schiff는 은이 10년 이상 쌓인 50달러 저항을 돌파했으므로 이번 조정은 단순 조정이며 지지선은 70달러라고 주장한다. 은광주가 은 가격 상승을 따라가지 못하는 괴리와 회의론을 강세 신호로 본다. 연내 100달러 은을 목표로 제시한다.
다듬은 글
So, silver went up more than 10x before it had that big surge. Also, the significance of that surge was that encountered resistance at $50. So, it didn't break through the prior high. That's why it pulled back, but it also had a t-fold gain. Now, the most recent rally, if you really want to trace where the rally began, I think it began when silver broke above 30.
And so the move from 30 to 80 was not even quite a triple. But more significant, the move didn't stop at the $50 resistance. It paused there, but then it blew through 50 and went all the way up to 84. That is a massive breakout. Silver stole the spotlight in 2025, delivering tripledigit gains despite extreme volatility.
Peter Schiff noted that while US stock indexes ended the year strong with the Dow up 13%, the S&P 500 gaining 16.4% and the Nasdaq rising 20.4%. Equities were ultimately overshadowed by an historic rally in precious metals. Gold surged roughly 64% to finish above $4,300 after hitting record highs, while silver far outperformed, rising over 140% and closing above $71 per ounce.
Shift pointed to silver's sharp post Christmas spike near $84 and subsequent correction, partly driven by higher futures margin requirements. Even so, silver ended the year well above $70, confirming the strength of a powerful broad-based metals bull market that also lifted platinum, palladium, and copper.
If you found this helpful, like, subscribe, and share with investors who are paying attention. 25 the markets closed a little over an hour ago, and that's it for the year. And I want to update everybody on what's kind of happened so far in the markets in 2025. It was another positive year for stocks.
Although interesting tidbit, all the indexes closed in the red today. And this is actually the fifth year in a row where the final trading day was down. And that's actually a record that hasn't happened before. Uh but that hasn't stopped the bull market because stocks have been moving higher despite the fact that they end the year on a a sour note.
But anyway, the Dow Jones was bringing up the rear of the three major indexes. It rose 13% on the year. S&P 500 up 16.4% and the Nasdaq uh as the top gainer up 20.4. 4% and that is because again of the AI uh trade uh leading the markets you obviously have a bigger impact from tech on the NASDAQ and a bigger impact on the S&P than in the Dow.
So it was technology that was the story for the stock market. Although the stock market was overshadowed by the precious metals market. Gold rose by 64% on the year. It settled the year just above 4,300. It hit a record high earlier this week. I think it was about $4,550. A little bit higher than that was the record before we had a pretty sharp $200 selloff uh earlier this week.
I think it was on Monday. Uh, silver, the star performer of the year, up just over 140%. Silver closed around $71 and an ounce last I I looked at it. That's about where it was. I'll double check it again. It's been It's been very volatile. In fact, silver got clobbered today. It was down over five dollars I think today for silver.
Gold only down about 20 bucks. So about a half a percent. Silver down $4.60. So it closed over 7150. So it snapped back a little bit uh in the last hour or so of trade down 6% on the day. But closing the year above 71 a half. I think that probably means that the year-to- date gain uh was above 140% for silver.
The high that silver hit this year was Sunday night just after well it had a big rally on Friday, the day after Christmas, Boxing Day. That's when silver soared, closing above $79 on Friday. And then on Sunday night, it almost traded as high as $84. got to 83 above 8350 before it had a violent correction.
Part of that was I think caused by the futures exchanges I think twice they raised the margin requirements on silver because of these outside uh you know swings that were you know not normal to see silver moving by so much in in in in just a trading day. You know, if you throw all that out and look at where silver ended up, it closed the year again above $70.
Silver is still several dollars higher than it was when I did my last podcast before I left Puerto Rico for Christmas. But I did record XSpace on Boxing Day on that Friday when silver closed above 79. And we had a big rise too. Record high in platinum. Palladium was up like 13 or 14%. Then I mean it was a huge precious metals rally.
In fact, it was a metals rally. Copper also rose to an all-time record high. So it was metals just going up. Peter Schiff highlighted a bullish divergence in silver, noting that its strong price gains have not been matched by silver mining stocks. Even with silver up roughly 15% for the month, mining shares rose only about 2%, reflecting widespread skepticism.
He compared this to gold's earlier rallies when prices climbed steadily while equity investors repeatedly doubted the move. Schiff argued that fears of another blowoff top like 1980 or 2011 are misplaced. Those rallies followed decadel long multiffold advances that failed near $50. The current move began near $30 and decisively broke above the long-standing $50 resistance pushing into the 80s.
The pullback towards 70, he said, confirms new support rather than a failed breakout. With silver ending the year above 70, Shiff maintains the trend remains intact and continues to target much higher prices, including $100 silver. Let's get back to the interview. Now, I was looking at the market yesterday and silver was up 15% on the month.
Now, it's given up some of those gains today, but as of yesterday, when silver was up 15% on the month, silver stocks were not even up 2% on the month. So, silver stock investors have not been that enthusiastic about the recent rally, which to me is again bullish because we had the same uh situation happen with gold stocks in gold the whole way up, right?
The gold stock investors were very skeptical of the gold rally. They kept expecting gold to collapse. Meanwhile, it just kept climbing that wall of worry. Well, most of the stories, the financial stories I've seen about silver are about, uh-oh, another blowoff top, just like 1980, just like 2011. Silver had a big spike and now it's dropped.
And so, this is the end of the bull market. And again, I think this skepticism is very bullish for silver. I don't think the action over the past week looks anything like what we saw in 1980 or 2011. Now, if you go back to the 1980 blowoff, that was a 50x move. Silver went from a dollar an ounce to basically $50 an ounce in one decade.
what we've seen uh in the last week doesn't look anything like 1980. So you can't go back and say, "Yeah, this is another blowoff top just like then and now silver is going to be in a bare market for 20 years." It's not going to happen. Number one, now looking at a more recent example of silver having a big move up was 2011 when it almost got to 50.
It didn't quite get there. It got up to at 47ish 48. But that rally also started in the year 2000 1990. It was another 10-year move. Silver started around four bucks. So silver went up more than 10x before it had that big surge. Also, the significance of that surge was that it encountered resistance at $50.
So, it didn't break through the prior high. That's why it pulled back, but it also had a tenfold gain. Now, the most recent rally, if you really want to trace where the rally began, I think it began when silver broke above 30. And so the move from 30 to 80 was not even quite a triple. But more significant, the move didn't stop at the $50 resistance.
It paused there, but then it blew through 50 and went all the way up to 84. That is a massive breakout. This is not a blowoff top. This is a breakout of huge resistance that goes back to 1980. This is very significant technical action. The fact that we've pulled back to 70 doesn't negate the significance of the breakout above 50.
And what I think is even better for people buying silver right now. Because if you were looking at $70 silver a couple of weeks ago, people might have been afraid to buy the top. Oh, I don't want to buy 70 because it's going to could go back down to 50. Well, now if you're buying $70 silver, $71 silver, you're not buying the top.
The top was 84. We've had a significant correction in the silver market and it's still above 70. So, the correction is already out of the way. It's not like there's a correction coming. It already came. And in fact, I think now the support for silver is around 70. It's not 50. It's 70. 50 is gone. The opportunity to buy $50 silver doesn't exist anymore.
And that is the reason that I was pounding the table to buy silver way before it got to 50. I was telling everybody on my podcast that once we went through 50, we were going to make a quick move up to 100. and my forecast was $100 silver by next year and we're certainly on track to get there finishing this year above seven.
These developments point to a powerful bull market in silver that is still unfolding, not one that is exhausted. Strong price gains have occurred alongside deep skepticism, weak participation in silver equities, and constant comparisons to past blowoff tops, conditions that typically signal a rally with more room to run.
The decisive breakout above the decadesl long $50 resistance marked a structural shift in the market. The pullback toward the low70s looks more like consolidation than failure. With silver closing well above former ceilings and holding levels once thought unreachable, the market appears to have reset at a higher base, keeping the long-term upside intact despite short-term volatility.
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