저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 쉬프는 트럼프 예산안이 현실성이 없고 미국 경기 확장이 곧 끝나 경기침체가 올 것이며, 금 수요 약세 속에서도 결국 금이 유력한 안전자산이라고 주장한다. 예산안 평가: 예산안이 제시한 복지 삭감 1.74조 달러는 적자 감축에 비해 너무 작아 적자는 줄지 않고 늘어날 것이라고 본다. 또한 경기가 10년간 중단 없이 확장된다는 가정은 말이 안 된다고 주장한다. 경기 전망: 현재 확장은 미국 역사상 가장 긴 편에 속하며, 이미 다음 경기침체에 들어섰을 수도 있다고 말한다. 침체가 오면 세수가 줄고, 금리가 오를 경우 막대한 국가부채 이자 부담이 급증한다고 경고한다. 복지 정책: 정부 복지 프로그램은 빈곤을 해결하기보다 의존성을 키운다고 보며, 이를 줄이는 방향에는 동의한다. 다만 정부 규모가 계속 커지는 한 민간 일자리 창출이 어렵다고 본다. 금 및 투자 심리: 미국인들의 금 구매는 역대 최저 수준이며, 자신의 금 회사도 사상 최저 판매 분기를 기록했다고 말한다. 그러나 올해 금 가격은 S&P500보다 약간 높게 상승했고, 전 세계적으로는 여전히 금이 매수되고 있다고 언급한다. 미국인들이 주식을 사고 금을 외면하는 이유는 트럼프 당선으로 경제 우려가 사라졌다고 믿기 때문이며, 이를 어리석은 가정이라고 본다. 트럼프 행정부 전망: 트럼프가 물려받은 경제는 재앙 수준이라 해결이 어렵고, 기대가 무너지면 결국 연준의 양적완화와 더 큰 정부라는 실패한 정책으로 회귀할 것이라고 주장한다. 다음 통화부양은 치명적일 것이라고 경고한다. 투자 전망: 금 가격에 대해 '앞으로 1~3개월' 명시적 방향 예측은 없고, 장기적으로 금이 안전자산으로서 중요하다는 취지이다. 주식 시장 낙관론은 근거가 없으며 안전자산으로 옮겨가야 한다고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
please welcome Peter Chevy CEO of euro pacific capital joining us now look we got we got to first talk about the the new foundation for American greatness as the budgets being called it proposes balancing the budget by cutting one point seven four trillion from social safety net programs Medicaid overhauling the tax code regulatory framework and set an economic growth target of three percent what's your take on the spending involved in this well first of all the cuts are too trivial to actually make a dent in the budget deficits the budget deficits are going to rise they're not going to fall no unfortunately Donald Trump is living up to some of his campaign promises of not to make any cuts to entitlements like Social Security and Medicare or to continue to increase spending on national defense but we actually need to make cuts in those areas if we want to have any hope of balancing the budget but of course the biggest farce in this budget is that the president assumes that the economic recovery and I and I put that in quotes but this expansion which is already one of the longest in American history the president assumes that it will continue uninterrupted for another ten years and if that were to happen this would not only be the longest economic expansion in the history of this country but it would be twice as long as the second largest expansion I think that adds of this happening are zero in fact we may already be in the next economic recession and the ink isn't even dry on that budget and so you can throw all these assumptions out the window because recession is going to deplete the government of revenue and eventually when interest rates do start to rise and the Fed can't suppress them indefinitely when interest rates go up the cost of servicing the enormous national debt will skyrocket and so you could just you know forget about this entire budget it's all a bunch of fantasy well you heard what the White House budget director said he said that we're going to judge compassion not on how many people are on these programs but how well these programs get people off the government dole so to speak do you believe that I mean I know you're a man who believes in getting people off the dependency of the government do you believe that that is part of at least ramping up these efforts which we've seen so many times the tax-and-spend crowd handing out American dollars to people keeping them in these programs what do you think about that statement well I would certainly look I would certainly support that aspect of the budget I do think that we need to cut back on these government programs which basically breed dependency these agencies exist to cultivate poverty poverty to perpetuate it these are their constituents they don't want to solve poverty they don't want to eliminate it they want more of it because that way they can grow their departments and they have more a captive voters but part of the problem is the large government it gets even bigger under this budget is going to make it that much harder for people to climb up the you know the the job ladder I mean the economy is not growing we're not creating the type of jobs that would lift people out of poverty because of government because of artificially low interest rates because of all the regulations that are not being repealed as part of this budget process we need to free up resources back to the private sector and under this budget the government is going to continue to get larger and larger and larger so if we want to have a vibrant economy for the people who are no longer going to be dependent on government then we need to make some substantive changes to allow the free market to provide those opportunities that the government is preventing from coming into existence right I'm just wondering if these are not baby steps it sounds like something that only the the freedom caucus within Congress is something is an entity that's going to support this but it does seem sort of as if they're trying to make some sort of baby steps here I'm a bit confused at this point you need to look deeper into this but you say the market optimism optimism is unfounded more Americans should be moving to safety investments I've heard a lot of analysts say that that is happening but you say not enough and you point to gold as something and not necessarily you know these Bitcoin investments because what you put in you don't know if you can get out be appointed gold is the way forward well if you want to look at people buying gold as a measure of confidence or you know complacency if you look at sales you know I one of the businesses I have is a gold company I mean also an investment manager and a broker dealer but I also have a gold company shift gold and this last quarter was our weakest sale of gold in the history of the company and it's not just my company and I've been told that we're actually doing better than our competitors this is industry-wide and if you look at the statistics from the US Mint Americans have never bought as little gold as they are buying now now this is not a worldwide phenomenon gold was still being purchased around the world in fact year-to-date the price of gold is up slightly more than the S&P 500 yet Americans are buying stocks and shunning gold and I think the reason for that is Donald Trump I think that a lot of people who were rightly worried about the US economy Curly Republicans who were worried about the direction the country was headed in under Obama who were worried about the monetary policies of burn a key and now Yellen they were buying gold to hedge against those problems who as a safe-haven against inflation or ultimately decline the dollar but now that Donald Trump is president a lot of these people are no longer worried they're optimistic they actually believe that Trump can make America great again and that whatever problems they were worried about are just going to vanish because we now have a different president I think this is a very foolish assumption to make and I think people who are expecting so much for the Trump administration are going to be disappointed and it's not because I'm a bat anti-trump the problem is he has inherited such a disaster right there's nothing he can do to defuse this bomb but instead he should be preparing Americans for the tough times ahead and letting us know that there is a real solution not a repeat of the failed policies that we had under Bush and under Obama but a better way led by the free market but I unfortunately since Trump has raised a level of expectation so high when everything comes crashing down around him I think we may go back to the same old failed policies of federal reserve stimulus and more government and I think the next time the the dose of monetary stimulus will be lethal to bring you on another time soon here to talk about some of the products we're seeing from this budget how it goes through Congress and the effect it has on people's investments I always like to listen to your your point of view thank you very much Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital thank you
Comments 0