저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
요약 보기
이란 전쟁 등 지정학 리스크는 대부분 단기 충격에 그칠 가능성이 크나, 장기화 시 유가 급등 등 변수가 커진다고 봄. 인플레이션(약 3%에서 정체)이 가장 큰 'skunk at the party'로 지목됨. 자산가격은 높고 신용스프레드는 낮아 시장 낙관이 과도하며, 감세·규제완화가 2026년 성장을 지지. 중동은 장기적으로 평화·현대화 방향이라 낙관적.
다듬은 글
I am here with somebody who does not need an introduction... 이 부분은 영어 원문이므로 영어로 정리하면 다음과 같다.
Jamie Dimon, CEO and Chairman of JP Morgan, is here with us. It's a really interesting day to have this conversation. First of all, the turnout is huge, but in the news world the focus is very much on geopolitics. From your perspective, you've talked about geopolitics for a long time. Are you surprised that the market has been so sanguine about any kind of geopolitical disruption?
Hi Lisa, hi Bloomberg. Not really. One of our brilliant people, Mike Semble, wrote a report years ago showing that if you look at all the wars around the world since World War II, the market reacts, but it never had a real long-term effect, except for the Israeli conflict in 1973, when oil prices tripled and stayed high for an extended period. So the world kind of takes it in stride. But geopolitics is a major issue. It's much more complex today than it has been since World War II. I'm talking about Ukraine, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and their links with China. That could have an effect, but it may not. These things may diminish over time.
With this war with Iran, if it is short and oil goes to 80, 90, or 100 for a short time rather than a prolonged period, it probably won't have a major effect. If it becomes prolonged, then all bets are off the table.
Well, how offsides would this market be if there were truly a deflationary shock, given that there seems to be comfort with the idea of disinflation right now?
Well, I think that's true, but it was true before this war too. My view is that asset prices are kind of high and credit spreads are kind of low. There's a lot of complacency in the market. We look at risk, we look at the broad range of outcomes, and there are negative outcomes. One of them is inflation. I call it the skunk at the party. It has been coming down, but it seems to have leveled off around 3%. If things push it up, and oil is only one thing, you can look at medical prices, construction prices, insurance prices, and wages for certain things. Inflation is a big thing, not just oil. Right now, this will add a little bit, literally a teeny bit, to inflation, not a lot.
I was surprised, because things were kind of gloomy coming into today, and the mood here is not that. Actually, there's a lot of optimism. There are a lot of different companies building things and investing.
How vulnerable really is the US economy right now to some sort of geopolitical shock?
Well, it may not be geopolitical. Companies may start to lay people off. But the most important thing in the world today is geopolitical: what happens to the free, Western, democratic world, which has been under attack by Russia and Ukraine, by Iran and the Middle East, and a little bit by China, which wants to divide and conquer the Western world both militarily and economically. All their neighbors are rearming because of their actions, not because of anyone else. Those are the most important things. I'd add that global deficits are very large, but I call those large, moving tectonic plates that may or may not affect the economy in the short run. They may be determinative in the longer run. When you talk about war, look at Vietnam. Did it affect the economy in the very short run? No. It had a 20-year effect afterward. So you've got to look at these things as moving plates that can take five years to have an effect, but a real one.
Right now the economy is doing fine. Asset prices are high, and people are assuming things will go on. No one you talk to has any idea that credit spreads could gap out a lot, just because of sentiment. So yes, I think there's a bit more exuberance than there should be. But we've had years of it. The One Big Beautiful Bill adds to growth this year, along with bank deregulation, other deregulation, faster growth, and animal spirits. We'll see. But I think the skunk would be inflation, so we've got to keep a closer eye on it.
Well, this speaks to something people are wondering about, which is what will potentially crash the party. Before we get into credit more significantly, I know JP Morgan has been expanding significantly in the Middle East, particularly in Riyadh and Dubai. If you take a longer-term view, does anything we're seeing now have the potential to shape that expansion in a positive direction, or potentially to withdraw from it?
The way I look at it, this creates more risk, but it also creates more chance of a positive outcome. All those nations have been modernizing and educating their people, adopting more and more Western methods, wanting to open their markets, bring in foreign direct investment, and invest overseas. That won't change. In fact, Tom Freeman wrote about this in his paper today: this creates a bigger opportunity for lasting peace in the Middle East, not just with Iran and this war, but with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and a path to statehood for the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. That's going to be up to them. There are reasons to be optimistic. This opens the door. There are a lot of naysayers, and I understand that. If things go south, they can say "I told you so," but this does open the door. Hopefully we're wise enough to help move in that direction. If you watch closely, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait all want peace, and they all know that growing a really great economy depends on it. If you want more foreign direct investment, you need peace. War reduces the chance that people will put real investment on the ground.
They've even set up a shadow government for the Palestinian Authority, with Palestinians who are professionals, lawyers, doctors, and businesspeople, to create a governing structure that can govern Palestinians without corruption and create peace on the ground, with Israel and Palestine working toward a long-term course of peace side by side with statehood. We'll see. On that one, I want to be optimistic, even though it's been terrible for a long time.
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