저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
모멘텀 주식(엔비디아 등)은 추세추종 투자자 유입으로 상승 중이며, 1일 반전 신고가-저가 패턴은 보통 최종 고점이 아니라 조정 후 상승 재개 신호로 본다. 아직 과열 후기 국면이 아니라 초기 단계로 판단. 2월 CPI 등 물가 둔화 여부가 중요하며, 금리 인하는 있겠으나 경기가 강해 연준이 서두르지 않을 가능성이 크고 3월 CPI·FOMC를 주목. 금리 인하가 너무 많으면 경기 침체 신호라 우려.
다듬은 글
we got a lot to talk about professor and it's great to have you on this Friday so you're going to walk away on to the weekend thinking what now about this rally well well Scott uh when you have trending stocks when you have momentum stocks there's a very old saying in Wall Street and it is up the staircase down the elevator and if you take a look at Nvidia uh and other trending stocks that's what happens momentum players move on they have very tight uh stops on it as long as it's going up there there and as soon as it breaks their trend line boy they're out um we have what's called a one-day reversal new high then low my experience is that's rarely the final high for the stock usually you have a couple days uh you know uh uh mixing on the on the price uh and and and then uh it will resume its uh upward course so this is this is something I've seen many many times before and does not scare me okay so we the elevator goes down another floor or two but then you get back on the escalator and you start going up yeah yeah to consolidate yeah that's exactly right um it's kind of like a head fake I mean you know playing the momentum play requires a steal because you know when it goes down it's so sharp you say oh I'm going to get out and then what happens it goes back up to new highs and you're so angry at yourself for getting out you get on again uh and it goes up another group and and then what happens at the very end and I don't think we're at that very end is you're saying hey you know Diamond hands I'm not selling this it doesn't matter what unfortunately that's usually the very top Professor now you're now you're using some of the lingo from the mean stock Mania yeah well you know I'm not saying they're meme stocks at all because these are real companies but uh you know me take you know take a look at what happened to Cisco in 1999 and 2000 I mean uh you this was a great company got overv value um but we're you know could we talked about this last time could Nidia get there yeah but it would have be at a much higher price to get to what Cisco's evaluation was in 2000 compared to what nid is now does it does it tell you though when you watch a stock like this go up seemingly every day and it it it just reaches these Heights that make you sit back and say I just can't believe what this stock is doing does it does it tell you that there's just too much froth in certain parts of the market but not the whole thing it it it tells me that we're beginning to get the trend followers and the momentum players and they and they don't care what the valuation is they don't care what the stock does they don't care what the company does they got their charts they say wow with this trend over there you know make the trend your friend and I'm making it my my friend and I got my stop there I'm riding it up um you know everyone's convinced that they can jump off the train before it goes off the cliff uh and I'm not saying Nvidia is at all ready to do that but these are the games that speculators play and I I'm beginning to see more of those sort of players move into the market um and uh uh but it's extremely early stage uh not late stage because uh you know when know 25 years ago um you know it had been gone on for many years before finally it cracked but you're you're painting a scenario though in which exuberance starts to get a little bit irrational and then turns into pure Euphoria and that's when you have to worry but you don't think we're anywhere near that stage yet yeah exactly exactly what did you make a pow on the hill this week who came off to many maybe a little more doub than expected yeah a little bit doish I mean he said and we're close I I didn't expect that I mean he could have shaded it to uh you know I was you know we we saw that January port a little worried means we don't a lot more work to go but I think you know maybe maybe got some inkling of you know a rather softish good wage number that we're having now uh and uh and you know seeing some slowdown saying you know you know we we we we are very very close I think next Tuesday's number uh CPI and which is of course going to be the last one before the March 20th fomc is going to be quite important um I I would really like to see a reversal of that from the uptick that we had in January and I think that that that is definitely possible how many rate cuts are we getting this year Professor well you know we talked about that um if we get too many I'd worry because that means the economy is crashing so you know you know you just say oh I just want as many as possible no you don't want as you don't want as many as possible and in fact uh you know as as as Mike said earlier it's it's much it's much more important for the economy to stay strong uh than for us to have you know a rate cut in May or maybe June or early or later however I mean I think you know my my feeling is is that we're going to have Cuts however let me warn you in how many days is it going to be March 20th 12 days I think we're going to have less rate cuts on the dock plot than we did in December uh because I think honestly fed officials are are surprised and pleased the strength of the economy and they say you know we don't have to cut that soon you know and I can afford to wait a little longer before I can squel to inflation so that that might rattle the market a little bit but uh you know it's only because of the strength of the economy not because they're you know stubborn and won't do it beforehand in fact JP says I'm not waiting until all the inflation is rung out before you know I'm going to start cutting which would obviously be too late at that point
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