저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
전쟁으로 인한 하락장은 바닥을 형성했다고 판단. 전쟁 격화에도 주가가 버텼고 현재 전쟁이 완화되는 흐름이라 S&P500은 신고가 복귀 후 올해 7,300 도달을 기대. 올해 S&P500의 약 70%가 이미 순환 약세장을 겪었고(에너지·금융 작년, Mag7·소프트웨어 올해), 여름 조정이 과거보다 얕을 수 있음. 최근 6주 주도 자산은 이더리움·에너지·Mag7·소프트웨어·금융이며, 유가 안정 시 Mag7·이더리움·소프트웨어 반등 기대. 다만 인플레이션 충격이 아직 올 수 있고 연준은 당분간 동결 가능성, 시장은 인하로 기울고 있다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Now let's bring in Fundstrat's head of research, Tom Lee, also a CNBC contributor and as you see here with us at Post 9. It's good to have you back. Great to see you. Uh now what for these markets? Uh I think the bottom's in, Scott, because last week was a period where the war was getting worse and oil was going up, but stocks weren't going down.
So that's a good precondition. And today now we have the rate of change that the war is de-escalating. So I I think stocks are now in the process to go back to their all-time highs and I think maybe get to that 7,300 that we're expecting this year. Wow. So let's just remind and refresh people's memories a bit.
You You were looking for a strong start to the year, stocks falling into potentially a bear market. Most of that you pegged to a new Fed chair coming in and some of the issues that might revolve around monetary policy. Couldn't foresee the outbreak of this war and the conflict, uh etc. Does it matter what caused the the bear market for how you project your outlook for the year?
Or are you confident that we had this event, an existential event for the market, it reacted negatively, and now we're going to rebuild our way back? Um yeah, I think things have possibly changed, Scott, because uh this war pulled for a for a lot of repositioning. You know, we know people have gone flat or raised cash, uh and they were ready to own defensive positioning.
And we also had a rolling bear market last year in energy and financials and this year in Mag 7 and software. So something like 70% of the S&P has already been through a rolling bear market. So I I think the possibility is that the summer lull that could happen won't be as deep because we've already fallen 8%.
What's the the makeup of the move back towards record highs like you just said you thought we would do? What is the What does the makeup of the market look like in that scenario? I think the leadership has been revealed in the last 6 weeks because since the war started, the number one performing asset class has been crypto, Ethereum, and then um energy stocks, Mag 7 software, financials.
Um so to me that's the group that's leading us up. You know, energy uh went up for obvious reasons. Sure. Isn't it going to go down now for obvious reasons? Yes. And And then the negative correlation to oil was the highest in almost a decade for the Mag 7, Ethereum, and software. So I think that as oil flattens or cools or the curve flattens, those names are going to get a bid and they've gotten already cheap.
We know the Mag 7's trading almost at a market multiple. When When, you know, that we sort of banked on the broadening trade, you know, there was a bent towards value which it had outperformed growth. Is that mostly over now because even with oil elevated, we're still going to ask ourselves questions about a a slowdown in in the economy, right?
Or or no? and there's still a shock rippling through the economy. Which we maybe haven't felt quite yet? Correct. Yeah, I think there's an inflation shock still coming. Um I think that the broadening is taking place. The narrowing is I think more investors are going to buy US because the US has proven its resilience in this wartime period.
Plus the US makes more money in a war. And but the broadening is that more US stocks rise. Yeah, but but if you're telling me the inflation shock is coming, isn't that going to negatively impact the broadening trade? Yeah, I think it I think it is out there. We just don't know amplitude cuz you know, it's like a wave.
Like when it hits shore, is it going to be diminished? Are people bracing for it? But there should be some inflation shock coming. It sounds like the Fed is already thinking about, you know, still leaning towards cuts, which is good. We'll get some signal right now they feel like they're leaning towards doing nothing for the foreseeable future.
And if they believe what you just said and and believe, then you must believe that they're going to remain on hold for potentially even longer. Yeah, and it really depends on if consumers and corporates view this as temporary or a change in inflation. So the surveys will matter a lot, um as well the incoming reports. But the Fed fund futures show the market's shifting back towards cuts. So
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