Jeremy Siegel on Fed: Put rate cuts on hold and will be neutral for a while 'at best'

요약 보기

이란 전쟁 관련 협상 시나리오별 시장 영향을 제시: 최선(합의 시 대폭 상승·연중 신고가 가능), 차선(협상 지연 시 완만한 랠리), 최악(UAE 등 석유 인프라 피격 시 추가 하락). 10년물 금리는 4% 아래로 내려가기 어렵고, 국방 지출 확대로 재정 팽창 우려. 인플레이션·은행 신용 증가로 연준의 금리 인하는 보류되며 당분간 중립이 최선이라고 봄.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Brent is now negative. Let's now bring in the professor at the Wharton School. He's Jeremy Siegel, also WisdomTree's chief economist. Welcome back. It's nice to have you. Good to see you, Scott. This this is everything, obviously, right? Yeah, I mean the war is it, and that that news about the Pakistani deal came out about 20 minutes ago.

02. We had a 250-point rally on the Dow. I see four scenarios. I'll give them to you from best to worst. The best, of course, is in like 3 and 1/2 hours, Trump tweets, "We got a deal." You got a 1,000-point rally, and then by the way, if it's a good deal, you're going to get all-time highs in this market through spring and summer.

03. Second scenario is just what we've heard. Comes 8:00, we got good negotiations, promisingly enough that I'm going to delay. Then you get what's called the relief rally, and in fact, we could have just had a little bit of that now, a couple hundred points, and you know, hope springs eternal. If that negotiating negotiations are going well.

04. Third and fourth, uh the bombing starts. Um and you're going to see a big drop, I think, on that bombing if it does start at 8:00. But the response of Iran is going to be very important about where the market goes. If it's a weak military response, that anti-ballistic missiles are able to take down most of them, and it is not very, you know, effective at hitting its targets, I think the market's going to creep back pretty strongly because that really shows that the US has the upper hand.

05. If, and this is the worst scenario, if they have rockets that does damage significantly the oil infrastructure of the UAE and you know, other Arab countries, then we got a lot more downside in the market. So, think I don't think anybody It could be anywhere in between and you know, all those scenarios you know, probably going to be playing out in the next few hours.

06. Yeah, that I mean I I don't think anything anybody would would disagree with your sort of worst case scenarios should they come to pass. The hope of course is that they won't. Are you trying to allow yourself more and more that to hang on to the idea one maybe a stretch, right? A firm deal and then we race to these new highs immediately, but at least to point number two.

07. A a deal to delay or do whatever to avoid the worst case scenarios that you laid forward and that in and of itself is going to be good enough for the time being. Yeah, I mean it you know, you could call it taco. It's It's not really chicken. If there really is progress, I mean it did seem that there was some slight alteration of Iran's original demands and you know, Pakistan saying open that to being a neutral position in between saying to Iran that was hopeful.

08. I mean it was 250 points hopeful for the market. So, you know, if that seems to be moving the chess pieces forward, you're going to get a relief rally and then and and see you know, what happens. So, I mean right now you know, if I were to ask what is the most likely it's probably that that second scenario to to play out, but we have we have to be prepared for for for for anything.

09. I mean this is this is a very important geopolitical moment coming up. Now, in any case even in the let's talk about in the best case scenario. We do get a deal. You know, it was not going to come down all the way back to 60 right away. There was damage. There is going to be still some risk premium and in the market, but I think more importantly is we're going to have to build up our defense forces.

10. I mean, I think Trump already has a $200 billion request in. It's going to go higher. Fiscal expansion. I don't think we're going to see the 10-year drop below four. And in that case, I don't I don't see the Fed dropping rates. As you know, you know, I was I was quite forward in advocating that early on, but given these developments and also given developments where I see credit, bank credit increasing and inflationary pressures increasing, I think we have to put on hold any cuts. I think it's going to be neutral for a while at best.