Top market researcher Ed Yardeni says the market bottom is in

요약 보기

결론: 에드 야데니는 시장 저점이 이미 나왔다고 보며 연말 S&P500 7,700 목표를 유지한다. 시장 전망: 기존에 10~15% 조정을 예상했으나 S&P500은 약 9% 하락했다. 전쟁의 출구 전략(대통령의 승리 선언)이 나오면서 월요일이 저점이라고 본다. 유가: 유가가 현 수준에 머물러도 미국 경제는 버틸 수 있으며, 미국은 석유·가스 수출국이라 오히려 에너지 업계에 긍정적이라고 본다. 호르무즈 해협 물량 차질은 파이프라인 대체와 기타 원유 공급으로 상쇄 가능하다고 평가했다. 이란·오만의 해협 교통 조율 논의도 긍정적으로 봤다. 정책 리스크: 대통령의 발표로 최악의 시나리오(발전소 공격 등)가 연기된 것만으로도 시장에 강세 요인이라고 평가했다. 기술주: 12월 7일 매그니피선트 7을 비중축소했으나, 최근 PER가 31에서 25(일시 22)로 낮아져 시장 비중으로 되돌렸다. 기술주 전반도 상대적으로 싸졌다고 보며 기술주 반등이 지속될 수 있다는 입장이다. 출연자 관점: 시장 저점 확인 후 기술주 재진입 관점을 유지하는 강세 쪽 견해다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Our next guest thinks the bottom's actually in. Ed Yardeni is the president of Yardeni Research. He joins us now. Welcome back. That That was your big call this week, right? And And you feel like you're going to stick by that? Yeah, I think I am going to stick by it. I've been whipped around quite a bit along with the various comments being made by the president.

02. But basically, I've stuck with my 7,700 S&P 500 by the end of the year. And I had been thinking that we could get a 10 to 15% correction. And the S&P 500 dropped 9%. But there's an exit ramp. That's what the markets were looking for. They They At first were very concerned that this could be an endless war.

03. There's There's no obvious way out. And the president The obvious way out was the president to declare that we won and and and get out. And that's effectively what he did in his speech last night. And that's what all the reports were coming out on Tuesday. So I think Monday was the bottom. Yes. What if oil prices remain elevated even if it's not a a long conflict?

04. Well, I I think the price of oil if it's if it elevate remains elevated around these levels, I think the US economy can withstand it. As a matter of fact, there's a positive impact on the US oil industry because we are exporters of oil oil and gas. So it'd be tougher for some of countries overseas. But I think one way or another the oil is going to come out of the the Persian Gulf.

05. You know, at first the first reaction was 20 20 million barrels a day aren't going to come out. And then it was recognized that there's some pipelines that could make it make a difference and that there's a lots of other oil that's still floating around. So suddenly instead of 20 million were 10 million barrels short.

06. But now there's news that Iran and Oman are discussing sort of just coordinating traffic going through the strait and kind of scheduling things. They They seem to be backing off the idea that they're going to be toll takers. I mean, there's going to be a tremendous amount of pressure on Iran to just behave.

07. And by the way, we got another two to three weeks of pounding them. Sky, I remember I was sitting with you on Liberation Day a few days after Liberation Day in April 9th. And it was 3:00 in the afternoon and the market just went up 10% when Trump postponed Liberation Day. I think we got the same phenomenon going on right now.

08. He basically has postponed Obliteration Day. He's still threatening to take out their power plants. But just postponing worst-case scenarios have been very bullish for the market. You You feel like this tech comeback has legs now? Absolutely. I think tech got that cheap and relatively cheap again. And I thought on December 7th it was time to underweight the Magnificent Seven.

09. A few days ago I I said, "Hey, look. This PE has gone down from like 31 down to 25." It actually got down to 22 over the past couple of days. But I went back to a market market weight on the Magnificent Seven. And tech I think also got relatively cheap. So the short answer is yes.