저자: Dr.Stock · 외국인
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S&P500(SPY), 나스닥100(QQQ), 러셀2000(IWM) 기술적 지지·저항 분석 및 지지선 이탈 시 하락 시나리오 제시. 엔비디아는 실적(8/28) 전 주가 125~133 구간 박스권 가능성, 마진 압박 시 하락(88~90 이하 가능성)을 언급. 장기적으로 엔비디아 강세 견해 유지. 자체 구독·교육 상품 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
if you're looking for NVIDIA technicals you've come to the right place I have Nvidia stock price predictions with price targets I actually have six of them for you three to the upside three to the downside for where we could possibly go leading up to earnings and maybe even post earnings for Nvidia stock it's going to be absolutely incredible I'll put that up on the screen for you I do just briefly want to go over spy QQQ and iwm if you haven't seen my previous two videos launching my new technical analyses that are out there you should it's highly worthwhile if you guys want to see what I'm buying and selling and also see these technicals before they hit YouTube you can do that by find that link down description for the patreon click that sign up head over to the Discord that's also where I post my buys and sells as well as those technicals I was talking about talk with me and my community members we'd love to have you over there and then if you guys want to learn this technical analysis for yourself there's a link for that too we'll talk more about that later in the meantime spy watch today for this support at 550 to 551 we could most definitely find that right now we're at 5516 in the premarket hours we found out where a ceiling was now today it's likely going to be looking for a floor we got that rejection off of 553 yesterday so if we find a floor at this level we could come back and retest resistance if we're able to penetrate into that and there's a lot of resistance that's up here but if we're able to make into that then we're heading off towards price Target to that rejection if that sends us back down through this 551 then we're starting to look down here at this 618 down here at about 546 so these price targets you see to the bottom of this this is when we were on either side of this resistance yesterday that turned into support when we went up above it support that's why it's in green I'm going to leave these on here because if we sell down back below this then these start to be activated for right now we're up in this price Target area that's up here for one two three and uh if you want to see those time breakdowns you can watch my last two videos I talk more about that so go ahead check those things out QQ Q watch this line right here for support and that happens to be right at about 46 8470 uh right in there so we'll call it 469 if you will so watch that for support today we found resistance at the top of this we're most likely going to see that rejection find out where the floor is and uh if we find out that the floor holds then we're probably going to be back up here in this territory if that floor falls through well then we have down here at about 464 up above that 474 if we can break that we have a free float area up in there pretty darn clear way up to 487 so be on the lookout for that for the cues I WM got a rejection off its bullish Channel again go back and watch my video it says I just wow on the uh on the thumbnail for that one and it even says skip to the 14-minute part for the commentary on iwm you can check that out and uh and see exactly what I have to say there because I speak about it in full detail I did update given yesterday's jump I updated these lower price targets so make sure that you when you watch this video that you pay attention that these are different price targets than what I had in the video that I put out it was two videos ago it was yesterday morning today is the 16th of August so was the 15th of August and like I said it was the am video that I put out there and the thumbnail says I just wow says to skip to 14 minutes fr the I iwm commentary but these white trend lines that you see diagonaling across the screen here they are absolutely the bulk of the price action we get for this bullish Channel we just hit the top of that yesterday we're retracing down a little bit today I said in my video last night that would probably happen and so what we're doing now is we're looking for that floor comes in watch for about 210 that's going to be about that number all the way down to 209 for that critical support so if we find it at 210 if we find it at 209 that's going to be significant we're probably going to retest to find out okay that floor held where's the ceiling at if that floor gives way then we're down below that that 206 starts to be activated so that's what you want to watch for for that now for the the meet and taters of this Nvidia so for NVIDIA I don't know that it takes on its previous two peaks that we saw prior to earnings I'm going to put that right out there and up front I think it's going to be something that's flirted with and it's going to toss us out with a fair amount of uncertainty as we get there it's going to be that knife's edge that coin flip scenario that we have are we going to hear that demand persists are we going to hear that their profit margins are continuing to be robust we either need the same profit margin especially in a forward guidance perspective any sign of compression there better be balanced by Massive Revenue if it is not balanced by Massive revenue and they get margin compression Nvidia is going to tank it's probably going to take the market with it and it's probably going to Signal Market top for us however if Nvidia shows that they can contain consistent margins and that they're can continue the revenue growth right along with it which means same margin more Revenue growth means more money for them means continued growth same trajectory I think that we're going to be in good shape accelerating would be in great shape accelerating for margin and also for Revenue which I think is going to be a pretty tough thing to do I think that would put us up to 150 easy in that case which I think is going to be a slim case I think it's going to be more of a a very positive status quo I think is going to be our best case scenario that we have I don't think that we see an acceleration but if we do what good I'm a long-term investor on Nvidia very bullish on Nvidia so the positions I have haven't sold them as it dipped I just added on to it and um use some options along the way to uh to get some more cash in order to keep on dumping into more Nvidia stock along with some other ones I like I like Tesla I like some of the longer shop plays out there I like Sofi uh just some examples of some of those things but sticking with Nvidia for right now let's say that there's um Revenue starting to contract that's not great even if the margins do hold out but likely if there's a contraction in Revenue there's also going to be some sort of contraction of margin margin's probably going to take that hit first before revenue does like we saw with smci uh and that was a very Troublesome thing for all the semiconductor plays that were out there before we had the the carry trade with Japan and all that that really tanked the markets and then we saw things rip back up so let me put up the chart with the technicals for NVIDIA just with some of that commentary in mind so for NVIDIA where do we find ourselves here well yesterday we actually broke through a critical support and it was selling down a little bit we're going to probably retest that support today maybe you're watching this while the Market's open maybe you get to see it before the Market opens I'll get this out as soon as I can hopefully it's prior to 9:30 it's 827 right now as I'm recording this video so up above that we have a price target of 125 to 130 I think that up to 133 is going to be our absolute maximum that we get prior to earnings I think that the market Market would just between the now and about two weeks from now it's actually 12 days because their earnings are on Wednesday the 28th in the after hours the market would have to seriously push up and raise that floor in order to keep Nvidia going up to that 133 you can see the previous Peaks that we had on here one of which was uh I can tell you exactly what it was that Peak during regular trading hours 136 and then this peak Here regular trading hours was 140 almost 141 so I think that 133 is going to be a very good maximum uh following a descending trajectory on this one so where do we find ourselves prior earnings I'm going to say 125 to 133 these three price targets I think are going to be very solid for us uh with a high amount of resistance especially up here at that 133 and I think it's going to be very very difficult to break through that I think it's more likely that we find ourselves if the Market's about where it is right now if it kind of settles and doesn't really continue to Rally up from where it's at right now over the next 12 days I think we'll find ourselves near this critical support down here right around 120 but I think that before that in between now and then in between now and then I think we're going to test the ceiling up here between 125 and 130 so I think there's some bullishness still ahead of us still for Nvidia stock I think there's going to be some caution that comes into it leading us up to earnings it's going to leave us the price action will be at a place that it's going to make it really nervous for us to go long and it's also going to make it kind of nail biting to go short and it's going to be probably one of the biggest coin flips and I think that there's going to be some significant profit taking most likely so if we come in high the days leading up to it maybe we sell down like the day of or the day before that earnings comes in as people start to take that money off the table from the significant ramp that we've seen in Nvidia over time let me go out to the monthly chart and it's going to be messy by the way look at that monthly chart there we go that significant rise that we have uh that's going to be just kind of disgusting for us there we go leading up to uh earnings potentially I think that we have that price rally and then maybe a little bit of softness leaving us in sort of a limbo space if you will so we have I think maybe this coming up for us that we have a nice little Rainbow coming up where we find a ceiling and then we start coming in low as earnings comes along and it's going to Big give us a big old question so that can come in anywhere in between 120 133 uh so I think that really the the prime place to find ourselves is right around 125 I was going to put a single price to it I'd say that 12 25 is going to leave us in a decent amount of limbo for Nvidia stock leading up to those earnings and I think like I said I think we have this this sort of shape happening for us a nice little Arc coming in where we travel up a little bit longer if the market continues to go that way if we stay bullish for a little bit longer I think that that could happen so uh a little bit more of a rally then some hesitance especially given the resistance to the upside of that and then as earnings comes along I think people are going to take money off the table I think that's going to pull the price back down leave it us at a critical line of support that we're going to have that coin flip scenario waiting for us so just uh to pop this up here just one more time to talk about the price targets that I have on here for you to the downside of this if we have any sort of slowing coming for us it's probably going to be pretty drastic and wow I just realized these all say price Target one uh let me hit cancel on that one let's make this say price Target two to the downside there we go perfect and uh you know sometimes copy and paste gets me down this is one of those times I changed the uh the prices themselves but not the numbers there we go so if there was a price Target four on here by the way it would be where you find this previous low uh that is going to be something I would say 88 to 90 would be where we'd find that ultimate low if uh if we had some sort of like amazing uh contraction in Revenue uh margin compression going along with it but like I said I think the most likely thing that we're going to get for NVIDIA if we hear any sign of slowdown at all I think it's going to hit the margin first uh and then it's going to hit the revenue uh and that would not necessarily set up a very pretty picture for AI that would be that' be a pretty a pretty disgusting thing to see so I I think the most likely scenario and I will put out my uh stock price prediction and earnings projection specifically prior to those earnings it's something that I have very close on the plate to put out here I wanted to ramp up my updated technicals and get those out to you guys they seem to be working very well and keep on putting those out so keep on watching we'll see just how dialed in they are and really uh help to to build more of that credibility in the skills that I have in that technical analysis so uh when I'm right then we know that that's a point in my favor and when I'm drastically wrong we know that's a point against me and I'll let you guys keep that scorecard on that one so uh for NVIDIA like I said I'll put out that stock price prediction and earnings projection prior to that earnings coming out it's something that I'm very excited to get out there if you guys want to learn to do technical analysis the way that do there is a link for that down in the description make sure that when you sign up use the code word doctor doct t o r it's down in the description as well so you can see it to as the reminder for that coupon code and uh that I'll tell you what it's got the uh it's got a trading strategy in there that stocko refers to as the bread recipe and I stand by it it's absolutely wonderful simple easy to set up easy to follow and um and I I got to tell you I wouldn't endorse it if I didn't believe in it myself if I didn't use it myself and then I also have a chapter in there on options as well if you're kind of interested in finding out what options are all about that's a nice little introduction uh to options and I hear that there's a lot more courses on the horizon that's stock M's uh deal uh if you are a fan of his or if you haven't checked him out you absolutely should and uh guys as always if you want to see my buys and sells you want be part of my community want these technicals before they hit YouTube they're available at the Discord through the patreon that Link's down in the description uh thank you guys very much for watching let me know what you think about any of these prices whether it's the indices uh the ETFs that track them that I talked about spy QQQ or iwm let me know your predictions that are out there and then also or just you know maybe thank you for the technicals you know I I always love to hear the positive words of encouragement uh that's always great to hear and if there's other things you want feel free to talk about that as well stop and say hi uh and then also for NVIDIA if you're a huge fan of Nvidia and you're really curious about Nvidia there's more that you want to know more that you want to see absolutely let me know about Nvidia in the comments as well thanks guys for watching and remember those links down in the description I am Dr stock dror of Education remember my friends at learning it's earning and we'll see you in the next video
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