저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 금리 인상은 거의 끝났을 가능성이 높지만 은행 신용 축소로 경기침체가 수개월 내 올 것이라는 견해. 금리 전망: 연준의 금리 인상(0.25%p)은 거의 마무리 단계일 가능성이 50% 이상이라고 봄. 2년물 국채 금리가 최근 한 달 평균 약 4.4%로 현 연준 입장과 일치하며, 기본 시나리오는 추가 인상 없음을 시사한다고 해석. 은행 및 신용 위축: 은행 예금 이탈과 지역은행의 중소기업 대출 축소로 신용 공급이 줄어들 것으로 전망. 예금자들이 단기 국채(6개월물 5%→4.5~4.75%)로 이동하면서 예금이 GDP 대비 크게 감소할 수 있다고 봄. 경기 전망: 경제적 어려움이 누적되고 있으며 경기침체는 수개월 내 도래할 것으로 판단. 실업률 상승이 침체 확인 신호가 될 것이라고 함. 연준 정책 딜레마: 인플레이션 억제와 금융안정을 동시에 달성할 수 없다고 반박(라가르드의 양립 가능 주장에 반대). 연준이 인플레이션과 싸우면 경제에 어려움이 올 수밖에 없다고 봄. 유럽 은행 취약성: 크레딧스위스는 글로벌 금융위기 이후 회복하지 못했고 현재 사실상 고점 대비 약 -100% 수준, 도이치은행 약 -90%, 소시에테제네랄 약 -85%로 금융 취약성이 뚜렷하다고 지적. 미국 은행: JP모건, 웰스파고 등은 금융위기 이전 고점을 상회하거나 회복했다고 언급. 과거 판단 회고: 연준이 인플레이션에 대응하는 속도가 늦었고, SVB 장기채 손실은 금리 인상이 아니라 인상 지연 때문에 발생했다고 주장. 연준이 뒤늦게 긴축을 하며 고통을 예언하고 있다고 평가.
다듬은 글
And that brings us to our main topic, and also to our main guest, Jeffrey Handlak from DoubleLine. In an exclusive broadcast of Closing Bell, he gives his first television interview since the Fed's decision on interest rates, which, of course, were raised by a quarter point. Welcome back. Nice to see you again.
Hello, Scott. It's nice to be with you again. Yes, we just talked about you predicting 25 points, and that's it . You got your 25. Do you think that's all? I think there's a more than 50/50 chance that we're done with raising rates. We'll have to watch the short-term part of the Treasury curve move because it's been behaving so erratically in response to all these problems in the banking system and the outflow of deposits.
So, basically, two-year Treasury bonds averaged about 4.4% over the last month. This is quite consistent with the Fed's current position, but to me it's a hint that the base case scenario is that the Fed won't raise rates any more. I believe that concerns about the reduction in lending will be at the heart of their pause, as we have seen financial and credit institutions tighten lending conditions for a year , and in recent weeks it is clear that they have tightened them even further and may continue to do so.
I mean, what Dominic was talking about at the end of the last show is pretty real. I think a lot of people fell asleep with their checking accounts, not realizing they were getting such low interest rates, when 6-month Treasury bills used to yield 5%, and now they're yielding 4.5% or 4.75%. And since this is being written about in all the newspapers and talked about in the news, I wouldn't be surprised if deposits as a percentage of GDP drop significantly when people realize they are losing basis points by keeping their money in banks.
So, it will be a liquidity problem. In addition, regional banks provide a significant portion of small business lending, a large share of it. And it is quite clear that this lending will be reduced. So, I think, overall, economic hardships are accumulating. We've been talking about this for a long time , and I believe that the recession will come in a few months.
All that is needed for this is a rise in the unemployment rate. You seem to be assuming, I think, and please correct me if I'm wrong, that for the Fed it's either one or the other. Either you fight inflation or you will have problems with financial stability. Whereas , say, Christine Lagarde, for example, the president of the ECB, suggested that it is possible to do both.
One does not exclude the other. You have enough tools to continue to fight inflation, and if credit issues arise with financial stability, you can fight them at the same time. Do you disagree with this? I strongly, strongly disagree. You can't sit on two chairs. It is impossible to get everything at once .
So we hear a lot about the soundness of the financial system, but you know, in the United States, we've seen a very different movement in the banking sector over the last, let's say, 20 years, or at least since 2005, when American banks, like Bank of America, got back to their highs or close to them, like in 2005-2006 .
JP Morgan is well above its pre- global financial crisis highs. Wells Fargo is the same. But look at Credit Suisse —they never recovered from the global financial crisis. They have remained at minus 90% all this time for the past few years. And this is the same graph that we see at Deutsche Bank, and the same graph at Societe Generale.
They all fell from their highs. Credit Suisse is now effectively at 100%, Deutsche Bank at 90%, SG at 85%, and now they are raising interest rates. So, it seems that there is obvious financial fragility in Europe, and the United States is also trying to provoke a recession . And we saw what happened to the financial system because the Fed acted too slowly.
We talked about this a year ago. Remember, " artist, get off the stairs, judge." The Fed should have raised rates much faster. Instead, inflation came, and it wasn't so much the Fed raising rates that caused the huge losses on long-term Treasury bonds in SVB. This was because they didn't raise rates.
I think if they had raised rates faster, the losses on long-term bonds would have been smaller because those bonds were forced to factor in inflation since the Fed wasn't fighting it. But if the Fed is going to fight inflation, then the economy will face difficulties. And in fact, this is their stated goal .
I remember it was, I think, Clubber Lang. I think in our last interview I said it was Apollo Creed. It was Clubber Lang from the Rocky film series, prophesying pain. And that's exactly what Jay Powell did last fall. And he continues to fulfill this, this prophecy.
댓글 0