저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 크레디트스위스는 구조조정 이후 상황이 나아졌으나 시장의 신뢰 위기가 핵심이며, 정부와 규제당국의 일관된 메시지가 필요하다는 입장. 크레디트스위스 주가는 개장 전 급락했고, 전날 밤 CDS 급등이 원인으로 지목됨. 크레디트스위스는 과거 실적이 부진했던 은행이라 도산 우려가 제기되었으나 현재는 이익 창출력이 남아 있다고 봄. 독일 도이체방크는 실제로 크레디트스위스보다 나은 상태라고 평가하며, 도이체방크 주식 공매도 및 CDS 매수 전략을 언급하며 신용위험 확대에 베팅하는 방식을 설명함. 스위스 정부가 크레디트스위스를 구제할 때 AT1 채권이 전액 상각된 것이 시장에 큰 충격을 줌. 약 170억 달러 규모로 언급되며 채권시장 신뢰를 흔든 사건으로 평가됨. 미국 은행들의 대출 여력 축소로 은행 이익 전망이 불투명해졌으며, 이것이 은행주 전반에 영향을 준다고 봄. 옐런 재무장관의 발언이 예금 보호 조치 확대 여부에 대해 모호하여 혼란을 줬다고 비판하며, 파월 연준의장과 같이 명확히 '좋은 은행은 보호된다'는 메시지를 내야 한다고 주장함. 출연자 전망: 시장 우려는 대부분 신뢰 문제이며, 당국이 명확히 소통하면 공포가 완화될 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
you've seen it of course on Squawk Box the stock is down sharply in the pre-market this follows a spike in credit default swaps that occurred last night takes you back of course to the 0708 period credit default swaps and how closely we watch them um this is a bank that's in actually a lot better shape than it was certainly coming out of the crisis gym but it's not a name that's unfamiliar to many I mentioned it earlier this week is sort of well will they try and come after it when I say will they try to come after it I'm referring to things like even that tweet yesterday from Boaz Weinstein it's Saba a guy who used to actually trade and really created the CVS Market in some way when he was at Deutsche Bank years ago um getting people worried okay I think that's great we're going to put oh by the way I'm going long Yeti here okay yeah that voice is still coming around but it's better okay you were there when it went okay see David first of all the real problem with Credit Suisse which is the analog because they never made any money Deutsche Bank is actually very practice so let's just let's start there buy bail out a bank that it's just a chronic loser versus a bank that's doing well second if you wanted to um be aggressive on Deutsche Bank versus what you just what I I propose what you said you short the Deutsche Bank Common and you buy these you buy the CDs and blow them to go up as the uh essentially as the credit risk uh uh is seen increase right and we saw that but perhaps the most easily uh misinterpreted is is what happened to the Credit Suisse fixed income when the government took it up you had a Swiss you had the country of Switzerland of course willing to bail out its finest name Merchant with UPS but what happened to fixed income so devastating that I think people are saying you know what if Germany does that God I don't want to be in this right well it's the one class of bonds are referring to a Credit Suisse the Swiss regulator so come out and explain their reasoning of course this was a very risky class it was related in some way there were Provisions that said hey if you do if you rescue them these things get zeroed but it did take as a surprise it was taken as a surprise by a number of people in the market it was 17 billion so I know you know multiples of the market value that was left at Credit Suisse which they actually retained a bit of yeah surprisingly perhaps isn't it interesting if you buy the stock of credits fees and by no means recommending uh there's Ernie's power and you may have to deal with the fact that they actually have Firepower buying back when one of their their buying back some bonds but I just think people say wait a second if Germany wants to seize the terminal sees it and yeah in trouble but David they're not gonna I mean first of all again and if they're not near this listen any number of Market participants I've spoken to this morning and people that say that we're not overly concerned about Deutsche Bank they will admit to being over or concerned about the earnings power of banks across the board yes the funds has increased their willingness to make loans has decreased and so there is a question as to what earnings are going to look like for any number of Banks and you can see that reflected perhaps in the equity but are there many who believe somehow that this this large institution is is in real dire uh Straits no no but David a lot of things are coming from the governments themselves so Christine lugard this morning reassures Banks okay and I'm sure by the way Sarah will re-up that when she's the one there today uh but here's the issue we're still going back to when the Fed about race rates and we had that split decision between Yellen who gave a populist Biden view on bailouts and pal who acknowledged there are no payoffs it's just credit if all these Regulators were to speak as one saying listen good banks are going to be protected which then might you know good bank means positive Equity yep then this goes away if they just use the term protected because I'm speaking with some criticism I keep hearing it every time you know yelling again just this morning we saw a very senior member of the financial world let's call it yelling a little all over the place she is because she's political uh something I thought went a little all over the place but that's not been helpful is is that was a sort of a quote I wrote down I can't tell you who said it but no she played to the crowd it was disappointing she's usually above that I think she should have been aware that her words let's listen to the latest things she had to say this was I believe yesterday on on Capital it's three o'clock take a listen a bit different than Wednesday we have used important tools to act quickly to prevent contagion and they are tools we could use again the strong actions we've taken ensure that Americans deposits are safe certainly we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted which he's been saying essentially the same thing but obviously doesn't want to get into the to the territory said yes all uninsured deposits are now but they too have a facility that they put in place which basically says if you have bonds valued at 80.
you could you can put them to us at par and she seemed to not acknowledge that that is enough if you have all she had to do was say listen we have facilities in place of course we'll do more right it's her language she needs to speak with the same language as another person who's in the government which is pal but I thought she played on Wednesday and lost her credibility because Biden's against bailouts so if you're going to give me a democratic line as treasury secretary then how about say we're fine because when you disagree with that chair you make the situation where people short everything and so much of this is just related to confidence Jim uh that's all we're really talking about
댓글 0