저자: LarryFink · 외국인
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BlackRock 실적은 역대 최고 수준이며 2026년 출발이 '차별화된 모멘텀'이라는 주장. 실적: 최근 5년간 2.5조 달러 유입, 연간 순유입 7000억 달러, 직전 분기 3420억 달러. 아시아·중남미·중동 성장이 두드러짐. 사업 전략: 공개시장·사모시장·투자기술을 결합한 포트폴리오 제공이 핵심. 401k에 사모시장 편입이 논의되는데 BlackRock이 이미 최대 사업자라고 주장. 투자기술 ACV는 분기 16% 성장. 합병: 2009년 BGI 인수 때 '수동·능동 결합 불가'라는 비판이 틀렸다고 주장. 현재 3개 회사 통합은 계획대로 또는 계획 이상으로 진행 중. 금리: 2026년 스티프닝(장단기 금리차 확대) 가능성을 언급. AI와 중국발 디플레이션 압력으로 장기적으로 금리 인하 여지가 있다고 봄. 소득 투자가 향후 몇 년의 큰 테마라고 제시. 장기투자: 2000년 초 투자 후 25년간 연 8% 복리 수익을 예로 들어 장기 투자 유지를 강조. 미국 예외주의를 믿으며 미국 성장률이 추세를 웃돌 것으로 전망. 정책 리스크: 백악관의 방산업체 자사주 매입 제한, 기관의 주택 매입 제한 등 정부 개입을 우려하면서도 과도한 논란에는 집중하지 않겠다는 입장. 가자 휴전과 우크라이나 협상(재건기금 참여 가능성)으로 2026년이 2025년보다 투자하기 안전하다고 평가. 재정: 국가부채 38조 달러 이상이며 재정 규율 부족을 지적. 외국인의 미 국채 수요가 약해지면 낮은 인플레이션 속 고금리 상황이 올 수 있다고 경고. 다만 3% 성장이 유지되면 부채/GDP 비율은 감소 가능하다고 봄. 관련 자산 전망: 특정 개별 종목 매매 추천은 없음. 미국 주식시장 강세 스토리는 유지되나 정책 노이즈로 일부 산업·종목은 영향받을 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
You know what? We've got a great treat because we've got someone who kind of understands and spans all the gap like everything. And that's why we like to speak to Larry Mink at Black Rockck and their shares are ticking up to every other bank when they because it's not a bank. That's what's important.
Uh I'm going to go right to you, Larry. Happy New Year, guys. Oh yeah, absolutely. That too. By the way, Larry David says you can't do that fast. How did you do it? How did you take in? So, you're talking about a step function that you took in this time since we seen you last. How did you I'm not sure if it's a step function.
Over the last 5 years, we raised $2.5 trillion. Uh so, it's not much of a step, but it's we had our best year ever. 700 billion in net flows, 342 billion in the last quarter. I think it's um I think what you're seeing in in every every industry in every economy we're starting to see more and more K economies.
I think the scale operator is winning more share of wallet in our case um uh the growth that we saw in in Latin America in Asia in the Middle East um was extensive. Um, no firm has a combination of public markets now private markets, investment technology. So, we're able to provide a whole portfolio, a complete relationship when you think about, you know, everyone's speculating what's going to happen in 401ks and the introduction of private markets.
Well, we're the largest player in that already. Um, and and and so we have those type of relationships already. It is not just about inserting private markets. It's about a portfolio. It's about, you know, trying to create the most unique portfolio to meet the the beneficiaries long-term needs. And we've organized the firm to provide both public and private markets.
And then you intersect what we were doing in investment technology, which we had 16% ACV growth in the quarter. um if you are going to provide private markets uh into 401ks and all that, you're going to need to justify it. And the only way we're going to be able to justify it is through investment technology.
They're they're coming to Black Rockck to set that up as we develop frequent as a part of El the words you use in the call differentiated momentum. Is that what I'm hearing you talk about? Is that the differentiation? I I I don't think I said that, but I like that term. Oh, all right. Well, somebody said we enter 2026 with differentiated momentum.
We have. Yeah. But it's still look there was a negative thesis going around which was that this is commoditized. I think that this was the quarter where it just says no there's black rock and then there the companies that aren't commoditized. Well, we saw over the last 10 years 15 years as we've done mergers.
Every time you do mergers there's there's questions on are you integrating? How you know can you achieve what you expected? So there's always that uncertainty post mergers. We saw that certainly in 2009 when we did BGI when everyone said you could not marry public markets uh and you know passive and active.
I guess they were wrong on that when IShares had 300 billion and now 5.5 trillion um and now we're we're we're merging both public markets and private markets and there uncertainty. I think what the fourth quarter showed maybe that uncertainty was not unjustified. We are executing um the integration of all three firms is going as planned if not far beyond planned.
Is this year going to be the year of the steeper curve? I think so. I mean, look at I think um there there's good justification of lowering rates if you believe the power of AI. If you see the deflationary impact of China with a trillion dollar trade surplus, the these are all very deflationary trends and the AI AI is deflationary.
And so I'm not it may not show up as much in 2026, but out 27 you could see real impact on that. And so, you know, I do believe that's going to lead to a a steeper yield curve, but and that that is why we think income is going to be a big theme over the next few years. Let's talk about something that you've come on many times and and we mentioned that there really wasn't a new generation of savers.
You were concerned. I see the possibility here of a new generation and and by the way the Trump accounts are make it fantastic Jim over the last um 10 years we did more to democratize investing we lowered our fees by over 600 million dollars you know so here we are the scale operator with rising margins and lowering fees and so what we have done is purposeful But it is also meaningful.
I mean, we believe there's a greater need for those for Americans and everybody to be investing with a growth of America. And I've talked about it in the past. We're we're telling people in India, you want to invest with a growth of India. And and as a capital markets grow and one of the big one of the big things our our year and our quarter really suggests, the growth of the global capital markets is accelerating.
The role of the capital markets in each society is retire you know more and more countries are focusing on pillar two pillar three retirement so it's all intersected with retirement that so with the growth of the capital markets black rockck is growing alongside the world's growth and the world's capital markets and as we democratize investing as we get more and more people saying keeping your money in a bank account is safe but if if it's over a 20 or 30 year horizon reason it's wrong.
You want to be investing with your country and we don't we we don't talk about that. And if you think about the investors in January 1st, 2000 and the next year, we had a 40% draw down in the stock market. But if you just invested January 1st, 2000, over the last 25 years, you had an 8% compounded return.
Okay? And this is why I don't get caught up in the noise and what and the ups and downs in markets because over time if you believe that your country can grow and differentiate us and I do believe in American exceptionalism and I do believe that America is going to grow above trend over the next few years and so we should have more Americans investing with the growth of America.
Right. So you're a believer in capitalism. We know that. Absolutely. Are you concerned at all about what we've seen from the White House of late that would seem to be things that are not necessarily in keeping with that? Whether it's telling defense companies you can't return capital to shareholders, as well as telling institutions you can't buy private homes, whether it's what am I forgetting, Carl?
There's any number of other ones, pricing, capex, comp, and return capital returns. Those are the the controls. And not to mention, of course, the Federal Reserve. I I just wonder whether this government control thing is concerning to you. Um, let's see what happens without I'm not focusing on all the noise.
I'm more more focused on what ultimately happens there. But I but I do believe uh investing today is safer today than it was a year ago. Why? We have a ceasefire uh in Gaza. We are probably going to have some form of settlement in Ukraine that Black Rockck is involved in in terms of the reconstruction fund.
Um, I think there's so much noise and and obviously it's going to affect some trades. It's going to affect some companies, some industry, but overall I think the bull story is more alive than some of this noise. Right. I I I think again I've always felt we are too preoccupied on monetary policy and not enough conversation about fiscal discipline, fiscal policy.
Well, we haven't had fiscal discipline. I mean, one of the longer Well, we don't talk about it, but you talk about it occasionally. Where's the national debt now? Over 38 trillion, right? 38 trillion. You're growing it. It grew last year and it's going to grow this year. Uh at some I mean but we sit here and talk about one day it's going to matter and I don't know when that day comes.
L it it will show up when and this is one of the big issues affecting us. If I mean we have the finest capital markets in the world. The US Treasury market is the benchmark worldwide. If there's any hesitation or lack of confidence related to the quality of our markets, then we are going to see that in foreign ownership in US treasuries.
And that's when we may have low inflation but elevated interest rates because our deficits are so high and we don't have enough ability to finance it, right? And so we have not seen that yet and that's why we could talk about it. But at that moment if that happens if we just see interest rates higher than the the the quality of the u of the economy that will show up but I believe that we are actually beginning a new growth agenda.
I mean you know we're going to grow maybe 5% in the fourth quarter. If we could just grow at 3% for the next 1015 years, our despite how large our deficit seems, our debt to GDP actually shrinks.
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