저자: TomLee · 외국인
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시장 조정은 4분기 쿼드와이칭과 FOMC 등 단기 노이즈 때문이며, 중장기적으로는 상승 흐름이 유지된다는 결론. 주요 주장: 지난주 하락은 쿼드와이칭 물량과 FOMC 경계감이 겹친 일시적 현상이라고 봄. 과거 5번의 쿼드와이칭에서도 시장은 3~5% 조정을 보였음. 섹터 전망: 에너지와 금융(특히 에너지)을 비중확대 대상으로 제시. 에너지는 최근 2년간 설비투자가 약 3000억 달러 감소해 공급이 타이트하며, 수요 회복과 맞물려 상승 여력이 가장 크다고 주장. 금융주는 금리에 민감해 2주 전 하향했지만 장기적으로는 선호한다고 함. 경기 국면: 현재를 경기 후기가 아닌 초·중기 사이로 보며, 보복소비·소비자 유동성·기업 설비투자·자사주 매입 확대를 근거로 듦. 금리와 목표: 금리 하락은 자본비용을 낮춰 주식에 매우 우호적이라고 봄. 지난주 손실이 향후 5일 내 회복될 수 있으며, S&P500은 6월 말 이전 4400까지 갈 수 있다고 전망. 패널 코멘트(General/Jeff Mills 등): 순환적 가치주 선호 입장에 동의하며, 성장·기술주 중에서도 합리적 밸류 영역을 선호. 단기 변동성은 이 사이클에서 흔한 조정으로 보며, 과거 2년차 강세장 사례(76, 04, 10)를 근거로 장기 강세 가능성을 언급. 리스크: 단기 횡보 또는 조정 가능성, 금융주는 금리 기대 하회 시 민감하게 반응할 수 있음. 에너지 투자 논리: 선물 가격 약 64달러로 유가 전망 상향. 기업들의 자본지출·재무구조 개선으로 밸류에이션 매력이 크며, 단순 투기가 아닌 투자 대상이라고 주장.
다듬은 글
well our next guest says the market is doing exactly what it should be doing rallying so let's bring in cnbc contributor tom lee fundstrats head of research tom then does that mean what happened on friday didn't make any sense to you it was the wrong way for stocks to go uh i mean i think all of last week was a lot of noise because you had two things that were going to have markets pretty nervous you know one was fomc uh but the second was quad witching and you know as you guys reported uh it was the second largest ever in history and you know if you look at the last five quad witchings the market has always had big chop i mean three to five percent downside so last week was just a week where there's a lot of noise and so we've been talking a lot about energy and financials when we're talking about you know sectors that we should be focused on in this environment what do you make of those plays right now um for investors to to put capital work in those groups i think they have to be convinced that we're not late cycle you know early or mid-cycle in terms of the expansion and um you know monetary policy matters but i think from when you look at things like pent-up demand or consumer liquidity or the potential for corporate capex to really surge this year or buybacks to surge i mean these are things that are pro-cyclical dynamics and i mean this week we're gonna get a lot of data that is supportive of that and so yeah i think being overweight energy and epicenter stocks makes a ton of sense financials we downgraded a couple weeks ago but not because we don't like the group long term it's just they're the most sensitive to rates and i think you know interest rates are under shooting expectations right now hey tom it's karen thanks for coming on i always love to hear what you have to say and uh usually you're spot on the question about a commodity so you you like energy is that different than commodities because of this push toward renewables and maybe phasing out oil or is it all part of a growing economy uh yeah it's a it is a little nuanced karen because i i think some of the commodities like lumber and corn were getting hoarded because of all the things happening the supply chain effect i'm sure a lot of purchasing managers were double ordering just in case but oil i think is different because of the tightening of supply because capital spending has dropped so much brystad data shows it's almost 300 billion dollars just over the past two years at a time when demand could be surprising so even though esg and other things have kept equity managers away from the energy stocks i think the supply demand dynamics for oil are so good that the energy stocks have have the most upside of any sector so tom in general if we see a day like friday where we see a sell-off that's fairly broad what would you be doing there are you still going to be stock picking in the certain sectors that you like the most or is that a time where you could play more broadly um i mean i think friday was uh noisy because of quad witching and if someone was more had a longer time horizon let's just say one month to three months i mean it's kind of a gift uh because you know when stocks get sold for no reason and there's no bad news and and we have to keep mine lower falling interest rates is actually very bullish because it's lowering cost of capital it's lowering cost of borrowing and it's actually helping equity risk premia too so it's quite bullish your stocks and i wouldn't be surprised if that all the losses from last week are erased over the next five days and we still think s p can get to 4 400 before the end of the before the end of this month tom lee thank you very much for joining us i want to go to the general and get your thoughts on what mr lee had to say nice strong yeah now i tend to agree with tom look i mean we've been in the cyclical value cam for a while i know tom talks about also liking fang right now so if you want to be in growth or tech we like sort of the more reasonably valued areas of those sectors and markets as well so i think that that makes a lot of sense i mean in terms of kind of what we're seeing with the volatility uh in the near term i think we've been seeing this stealth correction in the market for some time now if you just look at the percentage of stocks trading above their short-term averages it was extremely high over 95 percent a couple of months ago that's incrementally come down over the past few months but that's not unusual for this phase of the cycle sort of the second year of a new bull market usually you see this big thrust off the bottom and then year two can be a little bit choppy and i i think this year has been very strong so far but i wouldn't necessarily be surprised if we saw some chop here over the next couple of months but that wouldn't worry me so to tom's point about being a little bit earlier on in the cycle i think that that makes sense you know look to 76 04 83 2010 those were year two off the bottom you saw some volatility but also very early in in multi-year bull markets got it thank you very much thoughts from the general i want to sing that commercial though 1 800.
to please there's a lot of generals out there but i mean you know of the generals no he's he's the one no he's our guy jeff mills is there are a lot of generals he is the j he is the patent he's of financial television you see what i did there really quickly you know speaking of the strength i mean they're like and general mills the energy trade that we were just talking about the keys here to me are first of all if you look at that futures strip you have a case where it's now up around 64.
so you know 64. longer term tells you uh you've got you've you've changed the price outlook for oil significantly but the most important thing investing in energy is that these companies are saying all the right things on spending on capex and on balance sheet improvement and it's a very different sector than investing in five years ago so not only are valuations strong not only is the demand side of it picked up dramatically but these companies are run differently and these valuations i i think are even more attractive because you're not just this is not just a speculation this is not just a trade it's an investment now
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