저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 테슬라의 향후 10년 매출 성장률을 연 50~60%로 전망하며, 배터리 원가 우위·자체 칩·옵티머스 로봇·소프트웨어 마진 등을 근거로 든다. 특히 로보택시가 2029년 테슬라 기업가치의 약 90%를 차지한다고 보고 2029년 목표주가 2,600달러(약세 2,000·강세 3,100달러)를 제시한다. 영상 후반 진행자는 최근 판매 감소, 마진의 자동차 기업 수준, 경쟁 심화 등을 들어 고평가 우려를 제기한다.
다듬은 글
uh we do believe it is that big uh so if you look at the revenue growth The Last 5 Years it's compounded at roughly 48% per year and that and that was H as you recall when Tesla was experiencing a quite a bit of controversy um our forecast for the next uh the next 10 years is uh in the 50 to 60% range depends if you take our bull or our bear case uh and there are a few reasons there there there are four barriers to entry that uh seem to have gotten higher uh in Tesla's favor the first is Battery Technology so Tesla is the only car manufacturer um with the exception of a just a couple in China uh the only car manufacturer that decided to ride down the cost curve of the consumer electronics Industry using batteries that we find in our laptops our cell phones and when Tesla decided to do that auto manufacturers actually laughed at it as did Auto analyst uh because there were well um advertised or publicized uh batteries battery blowups on on uh airplanes and so there was a Banning of that kind of uh battery so because of that it its costs are so much lower today the cost of its battery or its battery pack system uh is so much lower than other auto manufacturers that if they really want to compete with Tesla they're going to have to lose money in electric vehicles while they gas powerered vehicle sales are falling uh that the alternative will be less power or less range uh so that we're seeing a lot permutations around that so battery uh still three to four years ahead in terms of cost declines of other other auto manufacturers who decided to use lithium ion uh pouch technology as opposed to the cylindrical batteries that Tesla uses the second barrier to entry and this is this I think is the critical one from evaluation and a growth point of view Tesla is the only auto manufacturer to have designed its own chip Tesla is taking a leaf from Apple's book if you remember in the day Apple was the upstart Nokia Motorola and Erikson were the winners in the cell phone space Apple was this upstart that had the point of view Steve Jobs uh that that this was not just a phone it was going to become a computer in our pockets and he was right and I'll NE never forget the light I felt when I was able to access the internet on my phone I just thought this was revolutionary Tesla's stock moved lower once again Monday falling almost 5% in midday trading the continuation of a fairly steady decline since Donald Trump took office shares of the automaker trading at around $384 per share in midday trading are down more than $43 a share since their close on January 17th a dip of more than 10% that comes as CEO Elon Musk has been spending a large percentage of his time running the department of government efficiency in Washington DC and not focusing as heavily on Tesla the steady drop in Tesla's stock is likely due to a variety of factors Monday's decline follows news that Tesla has lost market share in Sweden and Norway despite a large increase in overall car demand in January Tesla sold 405 new vehicles in Sweden a 44% drop from the year prior Norway was down 38% with 689 vehicle sales also the looming enforcement of tariffs on China and Canada are scaring investors musk recently conceded on an earnings call with analysts that while Tesla has tried to localize its supply chain it's still very reliant on parts from across the world for all our businesses therefore the imposition of tariffs which is very likely will have an impact on our business and profitability Canada is a key supplier of Automotive Parts as is China and Canadian officials are specifically focusing some of their ire with Trump's tariffs on musk Premier Doug Ford announced Monday that Ontario would scrap a $100 million contact with Starling which is part of musk's SpaceX Tesla's stock moved lower once again Monday falling almost 5% in midday trading the continuation of a fairly steady decline since Donald Trump took office shares of the auto maker trading at around $384 per share in midday trading are down more than $43 a share since they're close on January 17th a dip of more than 10% that comes as CEO Elon Musk has been spending a large percentage of his time running the department of government efficiency in Washington DC and not focusing as heavily on Tesla the steady drop in Tesla's stock is likely due to a variety of factors Monday's decline follows news that Tesla has lost market share in Sweden and Norway despite a large increase in overall car demand in January Tesla sold 405 new vehicles in Sweden a 44% drop from the year prior Norway was down 38% with 689 vehicle sales also the looming enforcement of tariffs on China and Canada are scaring investors musk recently conceded on an earnings call with analysts that while Tesla has tried to localize its supply chain it it's still very reliant on parts from across the world for all our businesses therefore the imposition of tariffs which is very likely will have an impact on our business and profitability Canada is a key supplier of Automotive Parts as is China and Canadian officials are specifically focusing some of their ire with Trump's tariffs on musk Premier Doug Ford announced Monday that Ontario would scrap a $100 million contact with Starling which is part of musk's space XX Ai and Robotics the Optimus Factor Tesla's AI capabilities extend beyond self-driving cars wood is particularly excited about Optimus Tesla's humanoid robot which she sees as a potential GameChanger in Automation and labor markets if Optimus becomes commercially viable it could disrupt multiple Industries and significantly boost Tesla's revenue streams Tesla's margins and profitability Kathy would also highlights Tesla's strong margins compared to traditional automakers even with price Cuts in 2023 and 2024 Tesla maintains healthy margins due to its cost efficiency software revenue and scale advantages as FSD adoption grows Tesla's software-based Revenue could further increase profit margins making it more profitable than competitors despite Arc selling some shares would clarifies that it was part of a portfolio rebalancing strategy not a lack of confidence in Tesla R often takes profits from high- performing stocks to reallocate into other disruptive Technologies Tesla remains one of arc's largest Holdings reflecting continued confidence in its long-term potential over the past year Tesla has doubled in value but while that 100% growth is incredible has the tide turned Tesla stock has crashed 22% from where it stood barely a week before Christmas for a company with a market capitalized ation north of a trillion dollars still that is a big fall is this a buying opportunity for me or just the start of a rapid downhill Road for Tesla stock what to look at here I do not know where the share will go from here nobody does but quite a few things are making me nervous right now about whether the business merits that valuation first is the company's car business after years of strong growth sales volumes last year declined but the market overall is still growing Tesla is increasingly being outpaced by Rivals such as byd so while the company's total revenues grew last year and are substantial that growth was small at this point Tesla is trying really hard to get investors Focus away from its EV business mainly because of its mediocre performance the company has long portrayed itself as a tech company not in car maker but the numbers at this time say that is exactly what it is an automobile company Tesla had 16 .3% gross margins and 6.2% operating margins in Q4 which is much more akin to an auto company than a tech company by comparison General Motors GM minus 1.13% had 12% Auto gross margin and 6.8% operating margin in 2024 a hardware-based tech company like Nvidia meanwhile had about a 75% gross margin last quarter and a 62% operating margin musk continues to make big promises and even on Tesla's earnings call he made fun of the fact that he is basically the boy who called wolf however he said there really is a wolf this time with his self-driving car however even if the company is getting close to autonomous driving it is still behind alphabet's weo which already operates in a number of US Cities and the economic model is still unproven Kathy Wood and her Ark invest firm updated its Tesla stock price Target to 2,600 by 2029 on Wednesday the day before the EV company holds its annual shareholder meeting Arc invest now has a Tesla stock price Target of 2,600 per share in 2029 its bare and bull cases suggesting TSLA could be valued between 2,000 and 3,100 per share in that year according to the firm's Tesla stock report release Wednesday what has long been bullish on Tesla's autonomy push and Robo taxi aims Arc invest estimates that around 90% of Tesla's Enterprise Value and earnings will be attributed to the robot taxi business in 2029 meanwhile The Firm projects that electric vehicles could be about quarter of total sales and around 10% of Tesla's earnings potential we believe the robotaxi business will have much higher margins AR invest wrote Wednesday without a robotaxi network in business Ark invest says its Tesla price Target would be around $350 per share according to the report we remain confident that the service will launch within the next 5 years Arc invest said in April 2023 Ark invest projected a Tesla stock price of 2,000 by 2027 with Tesla's Robo taxi contributing 67% of expected Enterprise Value Kathy Wood is the founder and chief investment officer of Ark invest which operates a family of exchange traded in private funds
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