저자: ThePatientInvestor · 외국인
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워런 버핏이 Ulta Beauty(ULTA) 주식 69만 주를 매수한 13F 공시를 계기로, 해당 주식이 주가 하락 중이지만 펀더멘털상 저평가라는 주장. PER 약 12~14배(과거 평균 25배), 무부채, 잉여현금흐름수익률 약 6.5~7%, 매출 성장 지속(가이던스 2~3%), 멕시코 합작 확장과 충성 고객 기반이 근거. 경기침체 우려는 이미 주가에 반영됐다고 봄. 단, 버핏 추종이 아닌 자체 리서치 기반 매수를 권고하며 장기 보유 관점을 강조.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett bought Ulta beauty stock as of his latest 13 app filing he did buy 690,000 shares maybe it's not much for his hundreds of millions of dollar portfolio but it's very encouraging as this is a stock I talked about a lot on the channel and it's one of my worst calls ever like I talk about it and it keeps going down and it keeps going down I talked about it when it was like 430 or 420 and now it's tring at 330 the stock is up 12% in the after hours to 360 9 after Warren Buffett disclosed his position I'm not sure if this is going to be sustainable or not but I personally believe the stock is still cheap it's still undervalued I se the stock is still a buy so if you're thinking of maybe you know taking warm Buffett's idea and following him maybe I don't think it's late I don't think it's a bad idea at all I'm going to give you a quick update and tell you why I still believe in the company and what do I think about it in general all right now for Ulta beauty yes now it's up around 12% in the after hours but the stock is still down 32% on the year just m massive mind-blowing 38% return on vest Capital 12 times earnings and no debt and the stock keeps going down not because they reported bad earnings but because investors are expecting bad earnings because people believe we're going to have a recession the company has yet to decline in revenues they're still posting increase in guidance increase in revenues but the market doesn't like it and they believe the market believes it's going to report bad earnings and it hasn't even reported yet so a lot of that stuff in my opinion it's priced in as long as it doesn't disappoint in a major way I think is a lot of that stuff is priced in the stock or the company a lot of you are familiar with it they sell beauty products and stores online but they also have services like you know a lot of people go there get their hair done and other things a lot of Ulta beauty does have these stuff and this is mainly how they somehow compete with Amazon cuz I know you could buy a lot of the makeup stuff and Hair Care stuff on Amazon a lot of people still choose to go there maybe they have their hair stylist over there and they do both things you really can't do your hair online and a lot of people goes there and this is one of their advantage and they do have some kind of a cult following where a lot of the people that go there they just keep going there they love it over 95% of their purchases are from like you know loyalty or reward members and people love to collect points and then get gift cards or whatever they get and some I forget to mention on my YouTube videos is they have a fund it's like a venture capital fund around I believe 300 million and it's called Prisma Ventures you could look it up Prisma Ventures and they do invest in early stage companies that do a lot of innovation within Beauty mainly a lot of stuff in AI like they have this Precision lash it's like a robot that does lashes and other kind of AI stuff you know I always joke how the CEO pretty much never talks about it on the call and if he mentioned AI a little bit more especially a few months ago maybe the stock would be sitting at $600 but they do have a lot of different Investments and a lot of them could potentially play out again this is not a dying company if you look at the start you believe it's a dying company but it's not a dying company at all the company has been increasing revenue and steadily earnings per share more than double from 2019 and they've been increasing it except Co of course and things have been going very well for the company in terms of the last quarter the company is still growing again it's only 1.6% grow in terms of comparable sales although they're comparing to a peak period of 2023 and they're still growing it's not here the recession is not here yet maybe it's coming maybe things are slowing down yes but so far a lot of retailers have been declining in revenues and in comparable sales and Ulta is still putting up positive numbers yet the stock is going down and they did revise guidance a little bit lower but they're still expecting 2 to 3% grow again no declines is still growing earnings per share slightly lower and and things are still fine so flattish to positive and the stock is still going down because of recession fears and investors believe they're going to revise guidance down again and we're going to have a recession and maybe this is true but I highly doubt they're going to revise down the earnings per share estimate again because they likely been buying back so much stock at these prices the company has an amazing balance sheet they have $524 million of cash which which is high relative to the market cap and they have no debt no debt at all they can borrow even money and do a lot of buy bags or they have the free cash flow the free cash flow yeld right now is around 7% 7% free cash flow yield guys and they have no debts they have no dividend so I'm sure they bought back a lot of stock and I highly doubt they're going to revise the EPS estimate lower maybe comparable sales a little bit and even now I doubt it somehow you know I just doubt it I just don't saying it's going to happen but but it's possible if you look at everything else in terms of Gap earnings I did say the stock is trading at 12 times earnings and this is true but the stock is up 12% in after hours so adjusted to the 12% increase the stock right now is trading around 14.2 times earnings and 14.2 times earnings is not expensive at all on on historical average historical average was 25 times it traded as high as 42 times and now it's trading around 14.2 times so around here and if you look at it historically this has been an amazing time to be buying Ulta Bey stock and it's not expensive at all 14 times is not expensive around 6 and a half% free cash yield for a company with no debt that's still growing and maybe if they decline this year next year is going to be easier to beat on comparable sales and it's going to be much much better and War Buffett did open a position but in terms of how I think about the returns of the stock you know I'm looking at in terms of Revenue growth Revenue growth they used to grow revenues 20 21% before Co after Co they grew 40% 18% 10% now this is fiscal year 2025 so we're in 2025 even though it's in 2024 so you have to look at the 2025 year for 2025 expected around 3% based on their guidance and from there it's like 5 to 6% and it could be a little bit faster because now the company is expanding into Mexico through a joint venture partner so maybe Mexico is going to bring in a lot of Revenue grow as a lot of people in Mexico are likely familiar from Ulta Beauty in the United States that could be huge for them but even if that doesn't happen and it wasn't this successful I could easily see you know 6% Revenue grow so if we're getting 6% Revenue grow and 6 and a half% free Capal yield I would say this is around the 12% annual return on the stock and this is like the worst case scenario to me and the company still has no debt and this is excluding a multiple expansion as I said the PE right now is around 14 times earnings now I wouldn't be shocked after this whole recession drama is over if Ulta doesn't go back to you know 15 16 17 times earnings I wouldn't be shocked last year the same thing happened and I owned the stock I bought it at 14 times earnings the stock went to like 20 times 21 times earning within four months the stock was up like 40% in 4 months or something crazy and it came back down so after the recession fears are over and we stop talking about that stuff next year I wouldn't be surprised if the stock goes back to 17 times 18 times earnings that's what I personally think so for me personally the stock is a buy because the fundamentals are right not because waren Buffett bought it you know I just want to give a quick disclaimer that if Buffett buys a stock it doesn't mean it's going to go up I mean look at Paramount Paramount is down 31% he took a loss on Paramount you know he took a loss on airlines before so we all make mistakes and you shouldn't buy a stock because Buffet bought it you should buy a stock because you did your research and because you believe in a company and this is all I have to say you know it was a financial advice just my opinion thank you guys for watching I hope you enjoyed it if you did please press a like button and maybe consider subscribing so I'll talk to you in another video
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