저자: ThePatientInvestor · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 베리가 포트폴리오의 43%를 몰리나헬스케어(MOH)에 담았고 주가는 연초 대비 47% 하락. 보험사 전반(센텐, 유나이티드헬스, 휴매나)이 2008년식 저점일 수 있다고 봄. 메디케이드 의료비율(MLR) 상승이 문제지만 회사가 보험료를 평균 30% 인상하고 지역을 축소 중. 2026 EPS 가이던스 약 14달러 기준 PER 약 11배로 저평가, 자사주 매입 확대와 84억 달러 현금이 근거. ACA 보조금 연장과 주정부 요율 인상이 추가 상승 요인이라 주장. PER 15~16배 회복 시 30~35% 수익 가능성 제시.
다듬은 글
Michael Burry has 43% of his portfolio in Molina Healthcare stock, ticker symbol MOH. He even stated that long MOH stock and long Palantir puts like peanut butter and bananas, and to me it was very funny. But he seems to have a lot of conviction in Molina Healthcare, and the stock is down 47% year-to-date.
So I'm going to talk about the stock, let you know if if it's presenting some kind of a generational buying opportunity as it's not alone. Centene is down a lot, United Health is down a lot, Humana is down a lot. A lot of those insurance stocks are having their 2008 moment, and I think that could be offering an amazing amazing opportunity.
Now, Molina Healthcare is an insurance company in the United States. 88% of their business comes from Medicaid, 7% from Medicare, and 5% from the healthcare marketplace or healthcare.gov is the website here in the US. The premium revenue for them grown really well over the last 5 years from 18.2 billion to 38.6 billion, pretty amazing.
Same thing with earnings per share from 11.23 to 20.42, and that's really really good. But very recently they're facing the same challenges that United Health and Centene and a lot of those companies are facing, which is a higher medical care ratio. The medical care ratio in the third quarter for their Medicaid business had jumped to 92%.
The average was 87, 88, maybe 89% at the most. It jumped to 92% due to higher levels of utilization. The Medicare MCR for the third quarter jumped to 93.6%, really high. And that's also because of higher utilization. For the marketplace, it jumped to 95.6%. This is really really bad. But the company is doing something about it.
They said, "We are repricing the marketplace book of business to reduce exposure and restore margins. Our 2026 rate increases average 30% ranging from 15% to 45%. So they are raising prices in a major way for them to make up for the higher medical loss ratio. And they also have reduced their county footprint by about 20%, and they have exited a lot of markets that are unprofitable for them.
United Health is doing the same thing, and a lot of those insurance companies have not priced their plans well enough to cover the losses. So they're increasing the price of their plans for them to make it up back in 2026. So the issue is mostly within Molina Healthcare's control, and the management is trying to do something about it.
Now, for their guidance, they're expecting $14 in earnings per share for 2025, and they said for the 2026 outlook, they expect it to be the same of 2025. So for 2026, we can expect about $14 on a worst-case scenario, very conservative in my opinion, in earnings per share, which would equate to about 11 times earnings.
The chart here says 12 times earnings, but the actual one is about 11 times with an average PE ratio of 15 times earnings. So you're buying it well below the average PE. But I believe the $14 in earnings per share is very conservative. And the reason why I believe that is from the management team themselves.
And this is mainly because of the states raising their rates. So they have not raised their rates at an appropriate level in a while. They're going to raise their rates again in 2026. If they do raise them a little bit better than they did before due to all those companies facing a higher medical loss ratio, it could cause a massive tailwind, unexpected tailwind for Molina Healthcare.
And they said, "Rate increases beyond our initial assumptions create significant earnings upside as each 100 basis points of MLR yields $4.50 of earnings per share." Their earnings per share target of $14 on 11 times earnings is pretty much on the worst-case scenario. It expects that their Medicare business and marketplace will be break even.
They may not be break even. Maybe the states will raise their rate a little bit more, and it could cause a massive jump in earnings per share for Molina Healthcare. So you're pretty much paying 10 times earnings on the worst-case scenario. And the best part about it is Molina Healthcare is actually buying back a lot of stock in the sell-off.
My stock, which is United Health, is not doing that. The company is trying to reduce their debt, and they're not in a good position to buy back stock. Molina Healthcare is buying stock like never before, and they plan to do much more of that. And they said, "In this quarter, we have repurchased approximately 2.8 million shares.
We see real value in our shares at the current market price, which we believe at this low point in the rate cycle under appreciates the long-term margin target of our business." So they believe the stock is cheap, and they're buying back stock at 11 times earnings, and I love it, and I again I love it very much, and I believe they are in a good position to continue doing that as the company has 8.4 billion dollars in cash and cash equivalent, and not much in debt relative to that.
So if I look at the company in general, I'm paying around 11 times earnings on the worst-case scenario. With call options on many different things, including the states potentially raising their prices a little bit more, including the ACA subsidies potentially being extended. I believe they will be extended going into the mid-term.
I don't think they're going to just let them expire. So those are two tailwinds that are not priced in the stock. At 11 times earnings, I think the stock is cheap. I see a potential multiple expansion back to 15, 16 times. This is a low like a 30, 35% return, but you also get earnings per share which the company has grown 18, 20, 22% in earnings per share over the last 5 years.
And combined with the bad sentiment and everything around Molina and what the management is doing with buybacks, to me it looks like a good bet. So I kind of agree with Michael Burry on this one. I believe Molina is undervalued. I like Molina much more than Lululemon and a few of his other picks. It's my best one for him so far.
And that was just my opinion on Molina Healthcare. It was not financial advice. So I hope you enjoyed it. If you did enjoy it, please press the like button, and maybe consider subscribing. So I'll talk to you in another video.
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