저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 연준의 저금리 정책이 거대한 버블을 만들었고, 금리 정상화 과정에서 2008년보다 더 큰 금융위기가 불가피하다고 주장한다. 연준의 정책 실패 주장: 옐런은 금리 인상이 늦어진 것이 문제라고 말했지만, 쉬프는 이미 너무 늦었다고 본다. 제로금리에 진입한 순간이 실수였고, 이후 실수가 누적되며 피해가 커졌다는 논리다. 버블 누적 경로: 2001~2002년 금리 인하가 닷컴 버블을 키웠고, 이후 주택 버블, 2008년 위기, 그리고 현재 연준이 만든 더 큰 버블로 이어졌다고 설명한다. 이 버블이 터지면 2008년보다 파급이 클 것이라고 예상한다. 경기 판단: 회복은 실제 회복이 아니라 GDP 디플레이터를 낮게 잡은 통계 착시이며, 평균 미국인에게는 이전 침체보다 회복이 더 나빴다고 주장한다. 트럼프 당선도 이 약한 경기에 대한 반발로 해석한다. 고용 지표: 실업률 하락은 구직을 포기한 사람과 시간제 불완전고용을 제외한 착시라고 본다. 경제활동 재진입이 늘면 공식 실업률이 상승할 것이라고 예측한다. 정책 처방: 연준이 금리를 시장에 맡기고 양적완화를 중단해 금리를 크게 올려야 하며, 그 과정에서 은행 파산과 실직이 생기더라도 구조조정을 감수해야 한다고 주장한다. 정부 지출 삭감과 자유시장 회복도 함께 강조한다. 금 가격: 청문회 전 금 가격이 상승했다가 옐런 발언 이후 하락했다고 언급하며, 시장이 새로운 정보가 없는 발언에 과잉 반응한다고 비판한다. 출연자 전망: 쉬프는 금리 상승과 이후 금융위기 및 실업 증가를 경고하는 방향으로 일관되게 비관적이다.
다듬은 글
what analysts say about the efficiency of the Fed Senate hearings and what the Fed is doing for Americans in the immediate and distant future well let's bring in Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital thanks for joining me on this listen you know you say Yellen said nothing of real value to the American people you're not impressions missing the point of what Americans really want to hear and what is that in your opinion well Americans aren't really even paying attention to what she's saying it's more of the financial markets that are sitting on pins and needles parsing over every word that she says but you know she talked about the fact that it would be a problem that the Fed waited too long to raise rates to remove the accommodation well duh I mean she's already waited too long I mean the time to nip that in the bud has long since passed in fact the minute that fed lowered interest rates to zero that was the mistake right the minute they checked us in to this monetary roach motel there was no way to check us out that is why the fed has already acted so slowly in their in their increasing rates because I think they know that another crisis is coming there you know just hoping that they don't get blamed for it so do you think then that the Fed is essentially postponing the pain of its prior mistakes in Congress for that matter well that's going to hurt well that's all it that's all it does and it makes mistakes and then it takes action to try to mitigate the short-term pain but only at the expense of making the mistakes even larger so that the future pain is even worse I mean that's what happened when the Fed slashed interest rates in 01 02 to mitigate the mistakes that inflated the stock market bubble the tech bubble and then those larger mistakes inflated a bigger bubble in the housing market and then when that bubble burst in 2008 they made even larger mistakes and that level which was inflated by burn a key and Yellen has yet to pop but when it does the fallout is going to be much bigger than the 2008 financial crisis and so that is a reason that Yellen is dragging her feet on these rate hikes because the higher rates go the sooner that crisis is going to arrive what and it this rate how long can we go without the economy heading straight back into a recession we watch your prescription for keeping us out of it or if it's you know if we've hit terminal velocity you're pulling a sabot it sounds to me like you're saying it's going to feel like a big piece of duct tape ripped off your arm well I don't think we ever really came out of recession I mean everybody says that this is the weakest recovery in history in fact the recovery is so weak that for the average American the recovery was actually worse than the recession that we supposedly recovered from and I think the reason the recovery is so weak is because it isn't the recovery it's actually a recession camouflaged as am occur as a recovery behind phony GDP numbers you know because the government is under estimating inflation we have a deflator that is too low and so we've been able to manufacture out of thin air economic growth when there is none see that's why Donald Trump is the president of the United States if we had real economic growth he wouldn't have even been the Republican nominee let alone the president but it's because the economy is so weak he was able to exploit that weakness and the fact that the public realizes doctor being lied to their being lied to by the government are being lied to by the media by Wall Street they're all trying to shove this phony recovery down their throats and they threw up all over it and elected Donald Trump well that's a graphic way of putting it but you know what a lot of people probably totally agree with you let's talk about what we heard Janet Yellen say earlier about the labor markets labor market unemployment is down jobless rates for certain minorities though it's very high in those areas she seems to be parroting what a lot of pundits were talking about when they said no the job market growth the recovery people don't seem to be feeling that do you think that these remarks sort of lend itself to the argument that you're making there well they may be feeling it but not where Janet Yellen and and everybody likes who likes to pretend I mean these are these are phony numbers again yes we have a low unemployment rate because millions and millions of people who are not working are not counted as being unemployed and millions more who are underemployed who are working part jobs but who can't find full-time jobs they're not being counted so this again is a government illusion created by the statisticians and you know one of the things that happened recently we got the most recent jobs numbers and we had for the perch Ainge we had about 700,000 people who had left the labor force coming back in now they didn't get hired there are now unemployed so the unemployment rate is starting to notch up but if more and more people who have been on the sidelines when it comes to the job market if they now try to get into the game because they need the money maybe they can no longer afford the luxury of not working we're going to start to see a big increase in the official unemployment rate and then we'll see the Fed Janet Yellen change your tune pretty quickly okay so we're talking about changing it quickly right now it would you you say Jack them up right now it's going to be painful what we got to do it right now because on top of this there's a lot of political grandstanding going on at these hearings has nothing to do with fiscal policy everyone sort of covering their political basis so if you could go into that room and say look brass tacks your fellows is what we need to do what would that be yeah well personally write the whole thing is a circus it's all kind of grandstanding but meanwhile Janet Yellen is the ringleader of this circus and it's all show you know politicians are trying to score brownie points they speak in sound bites for their constituents you know so none of this really means anything but again Wall Street looks at this as if you know Janet Yellen actually knows something about the economy and you know gold the price of gold was up 10 bucks before her prepared testimony was out and as soon as the words came out that you know it would be a mistake to wait too long to raise rates go sold off it went negative it matters to close up a few bucks but they're reacting to this is if there's actually anything new to be gleamed out of these statements but you know if i was there if i was the Fed Chairman you know i would basically want to admit to all the mistakes that have been done by chairman that preceded me as hell look we're no longer going to price fixed interest rates the set is not going to try to micromanage interest rates like the politburo in the Soviet Union used to try to fix the price of bread we're going to let the market set interest rates we're not going to interfere we're not going to be doing quantitative easing and interest rates would go way up I mean they have to go up America has lots of debt we have no savings interest rates need to go up in fact one of these senators asked Janet Yellen why the economy is growing so slowly it's this monetary policy that one is one of the main reasons we don't have real capital investment we don't have increasing productivity because the Fed is diverting all those resources to propping up speculative bubbles in the stock market at a real estate market in a bond market and to prevent the government from making necessary cuts to government spending that would actually unleash the free market growth that would produce a rising standard of living so we need to let interest rates go up but then we need to let the chips fall where they may because if we do that now after raids having been so low for so long we're going to have a financial crisis worse than two thousand eight and at this point we just have to suck it up and bear it and if it means a lot of people lose money and if it means banks fail and it means people lose their jobs that's what has to happen because we have to clean house we have to allow this economy to restructure so we can rebuild it the right way and not rebuild it based on government central planning but let the free market rebuild it based on millions of Americans pursuing their own self-interest this is what made America great in the first place it was limited government it was freedom where people could save and invest and produce that's what we need again we need to go back to the American dream but before we can get there we have to get out of this fetid deuced american nightmare thank you so much for your input on this Peter chef CEO of euro pacific capital
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