Investments and stock lessons from Warren Buffett

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결론: 주식은 사업의 일부를 사는 것이므로 단기 주가 변동이 아닌 기업의 장기 가치에 집중해야 한다는 강연입니다. 핵심 원칙: 주식을 단순한 가격 티커가 아니라 사업 지분으로 보고, 농장이나 아파트를 사듯 사업성을 분석해야 한다는 주장입니다. 투자 기준: 이해하기 쉬운 사업, 훌륭한 경제성, 정직하고 능력 있는 경영진, 10년 뒤 모습을 대략 예측할 수 있는 기업만 투자 대상으로 삼아야 합니다. 주가 관찰 태도: 5년간 시세를 보지 않아도 사업이 기대대로 성장하면 만족할 수 있어야 하며, 다음날 주가로 성공 여부를 판단하는 것은 잘못이라고 설명합니다. 매수 이유: 매수 결정은 명확한 이유가 있어야 하며, 지인의 추천이나 차트 흐름 같은 감정적 이유로 사서는 안 된다고 강조합니다. 거시경제 무시: 금리, 경기, 정책 예측은 투자 결정에 의미가 없으며, 경제 전문가의 거시 전망을 참고하지 않는다는 입장입니다. 1972년 씨즈캔디 인수 사례를 들어 가격통제 같은 정책 예측에 의존하면 좋은 기회를 놓친다고 설명합니다. 시간의 힘: 좋은 사업은 오래 보유할수록 좋은 결과를 내고, 나쁜 사업은 싸게 사도 장기적으로 나쁜 결과를 낸다는 주장입니다. 결론적 목표: 10년, 20년 뒤에도 소유하고 싶은 사업을 사는 것이 핵심이며, 특정 종목의 단기 가격 예측이나 대상 자산 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 발언은 없습니다. 언급 종목: 코카콜라(장기 보유 사례로 언급), 제너럴모터스(예시로 언급), 씨즈캔디(과거 인수 사례). 방향성 예측은 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. you're not buying some little ticker symbol it bounces around every day you're buying you're buying a part of the business as soon as I started thinking about it that way everything else followed it's very simple rule number one never lose money rule number two never forget rule number one the biggest problem most people have is they don't think about the stock as being a part of a business now when they buy a farm they think they're buying a farm and they they say how many how many bushels of corn will it produce or how many bushels of soybeans will approves in an average year what are the taxes would I have to pay the tenant farmer they look at it as an actual farming business when they buy an apartment house they say what can I rent it for how much they can see will I have one would cost in a manager how often do I have to replace the roof although they look at it as a business but when they look at the style a lot of people when they look at the stock they just look at it as something that people say may go up or maybe it'll split next week or in or somebody's got a target price i became a having a target price on a farm or an apartment it's crazy yeah so the key thing is to think about a stock as a part of a business you forget about the stock for do you think people so I want a simple business easy to understand great economics now honest enable management and and then I can see about in a general way where they're going to be 10 years from now and if I can't see where they're gonna be 10 years and I don't want to buy it basically I don't want to buy any stock or if they close the new york stock exchange tomorrow for five years I won't be happy only it i buy a farm and I don't get a quote on it for five years and I'm happy if the farm goes okay you know i buy an apartment house don't get a quote on for five years i'm happy if the apartment house produces the returns that I expect but people buy a stock and they look at the price the next morning and they decide whether they're doing well or not doing well it's crazy because they're buying a piece of a business that's what Graham most fundamental party of bloody taught name yeah you're not buying a stock you're buying out you're buying a part ownership in a business you will do well if the business does well if you didn't pay a totally filling price and that's what it's all about and you ought to buy businesses you understand just like if you're buying farms yottabyte farm generous man it's not complicated if you're emotional about investment not going to do well you may have all these feelings about the stock the stock has no feelings for my view but time is the friend of the wonderful business it's the enemy of the lousy business here in a lousy business for a long time you're going to get a lousy result even if you buy a cheap if you're in a wonderful business for a long time even if you pay a little too much going in you're going to get a wonderful result if you stay in a long time I mean you really want your decision-making to be by looking in the mirror and saying yourself I'm buying a hundred shares of General Motors of 55 because and I mean it's your responsibility if you're buying it and there's got to be a reason and if you can't state the reason you shouldn't buy it it's because somebody told you about it a cocktail party not good enough you know I mean there's just it's got to be something you know can't be because the volume you know the chart looks good on it or anything like that it's got to be a reason you'd buy the business and we that we stick to pretty pretty curly that's one thing Ben Graham taught me but we have never either broader business or not bought a business because of any mackerel feeling of any kind we don't read things about predictions about interest rates or business or anything like that because it doesn't make any difference I mean let's say in 1972 when we bought sees candy I think maybe Nixon put on the price controls a little bit later let's say we've seen it but so what we the missed a chance to buy something for 25 million is turning 60 million pre-tax knob wait we don't want to pass up a chance to do something intelligent because of some prediction about something that we're no good out anyway so we just don't we don't read or listen to or do anything in relation to the macro factors at all 0 and the typical investment counseling organization goes out and they give you they bring out their economist they trot him out he gives you this big macro picture and then they start working from there on down in our view that's nonsense and if you know if Alan Greenspan was on one side of me and Bob Rubin on their side they're both whispering in my ear exactly what they're going to do the next 12 months would make any difference to me and what I pay for executive jet or generally insurance or anything else I do the biggest thing of any money is time you don't have to be critically smart you just have to be patient Oh Richard full potential well ideally buying businesses where you feel that will never happen in terms of i mean i don't think i don't buy coke with the idea that it's going to be out of gas in 10 years you know or 15 years it I mean it could be something happen but I would think the chances that are almost nil so what we really want to do is buy businesses that we would be happy to own forever