저자: DougFlynn,CFP · 외국인
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11월 강세 이후 12월 초 시장이 다소 횡보하고 있으며, 내일 발표되는 고용보고서가 연준 금리 인상 중단 여부를 가늠할 핵심 변수라는 진단. 시장 흐름: 월간 8% 이상 상승했던 달은 과거 30회 중 27회 1년 뒤 플러스였고 평균 상승률 약 16%로 긍정적. 5주 연속 상승 후 소폭 횡보는 정상적 현상이라고 봄. 고용지표: 구인 건수는 둔화되고 있으나 노동시장 약화 신호가 더 필요하며, 시장은 연준이 추가 인상을 하지 않을 것이라는 전제에 기대고 있음. 암호화폐: 제이미 다이먼의 전면 금지 발언에 대해 다이먼이 암호화폐를 싫어하는 것은 사업 경쟁 때문이라고 해석. 테러·마약 등 악용 방지를 위한 자금세탁방지(AML) 규제는 필요하나 전면 금지는 비현명하다는 입장. SpaceX: 기업가치 약 1,750억 달러로 평가되는 보도에 대해, 자사주 매각 등을 통해 가치를 실현하는 방식으로 봄. 스타링크 분사 가능성(약 1~1.5년 내)을 언급하며 IPO 전 진입이 어려운 점을 지적. 올해 흑자 전환, 내년 약 150억 달러 수익 전망. 스포츠 비즈니스: 후안 소토의 뉴욕 양키스 이적 트레이드에 대해 양키스 팬으로서 기대보다 우려가 크며 선수 구성에 대해 유보적 입장. 전체적으로 단기 시장은 고용지표에 달려 있으며, 장기적으로 SpaceX와 스타링크 가치 실현에 긍정적 전망.
다듬은 글
Let's uh welcomeing Doug Flynn to the conversation wish you were here look at um how beautiful things look here the University of Alabama at Tuscaloosa Doug financial planner and co-founder of Flyn Zito Capital Management thank you joins us from um back on boring Long Island today to talk about the market with us a little bit you know I was looking at those Market said there's plenty of green on the screen and that and there is it's interesting the market had a a terrific November and I think and I talked about that a lot you know today notwithstanding seems like you it's flattened out a little bit or it's getting a little tired in um early December what's the state of the stock market for everyone's 401K as you see it right now yeah a couple of good things when you if you look at uh months where we had more than 8% in a month like we did in November uh if you look at the last 30 times that that happened 27 of the times one year later the market was positive and the average positive was about 16% % so that bodess pretty well when you have a great month like that it's very normal after five straight weeks of positives to have a little bit of flattening but we're waiting on this official jobs report tomorrow we're not getting enough weakness if you will in the job market even though um job openings are slowing so the market really needs to hear a little bit more weakening to know that the FED is not going to raise anymore because it's banking on that it's not going to raise anymore so we'll see how that plays out and then I think you resume the market yeah this time tomorrow that'll be a big Focus for us we'll be talking about the monthly jobs report which is obviously the biggest economic report that we get every month right now I want to talk for a few minutes at least about crypto cryptocurrency came up for a minute or two in the debate last night there was some some comments on it but I think the comments that are really getting a lot of attention come from a really influential name on Wall Street and JP Morgan's Jamie Diamond who said something to the effect about crypto if he was the government he shut the whole thing down um what do you make of that and what do you think is the future of what was once seen as just as highflying industry of the future well a couple things he's never been a fan but uh the thing that scares me is uh you know if well now we know basically if there was a president Jamie Diamond how he would be a dictator in in that fact he would shut down crypto so uh I think that you know however you want to take that I think it comes down to the fact that it competes in that business uh I think the side comments of the bigger part of it needing to be regulated because there are nefarious acts that happen when you're when anybody can use it such as terrorists and drug dealers so I think having anti-money laundering applied to it like we all have to deal with in financial services and in banking as Jamie Diamond does I think is the proper way to go but outright Banning I think is either a flipping comment or quite ridiculous um and that's not withstanding the fact that we can pretend C crypto is a real asset or not we can have those conversations but outright Banning other ways to transfer money and all the other implications are are I think unwise good job out you working the politics you've clearly been paying attention to the news the last couple of days with your your dictator analogy I'm not sure if JB D would really be a dictator or not but uh shows you've been paying attention to the news that's for sure speaking of people who are in the news I want just for a moment about Elon Musk we'll move from Jamie Diamond Elon Musk there's an article from blueberg news today talk about SpaceX the company SpaceX um one of Elon musk's companies being valued at $175 billion put it up there with um you know companies like Ford and others it would be that's where the value would be people have always wondered and the second part of that talked about the fact that they might sell shares to the public for a division of um SpaceX that gets a lot of attention starlink um which gets a lot of attention even government circles um put that all together and and what's your takeaway from from all that so we went from Jamie Diamond worth $2 billion to someone worth possibly $200 billion and already runs the seventh most valued company in the United States in Tesla not withstanding the private uh you know Twitter X that he that he owns and this is a way to sort of unlock some value there are Insider shares technically that would be sold to the outside at a set price which is normal in the case of these kinds of ways that maybe you ultimately go public but the first spin-off you did mention is the starlink part of this which they're saying in about a year or year and a half they could spin that out and so if you're in you will get though the IPO price uh everyone chases these IPOs but often times you can't get in before the IPO and you're paying after the IPO price so that's what's going on here and it's unlocking the value of yet something that could be worth as you mentioned one of the top 75 companies if the entire thing was positive but it does have positive earnings this year it's going to make about n billion next year about $15 billion do and we don't know just how much of that comes from Starling but the Outlook is pretty good for that too so we'll see how that works out but but I'm sure Elon has a plan you do such a great job for us Doug in analyzing these business stories every day I I I'll give you one for free here at the end we only have 30 seconds or so left but I happen to know that you're a pretty big fan of the New York Yankees and if you want to talk about a sports business story today how about that Juan sto trade what do we think you know I it's interesting because I know you're you know a Mets fan and that's uh you you have issues with the being a bestan but as a Yankees fan you know it's been tough as well and even though we have all these great players they just don't seem toel and um I don't know I I'm I'm not such a big fan of the way that everybody carries themselves these two people that they're adding on so so I'm G to remain reserved but it it is exciting maybe to get out there and see a good product so he doesn't like the stto shuffle this guy all right Doug I hear you uh Doug Flyn there on the business news and a little bit of the sports business news um if you miss it it's a blockbuster trade Major League Baseball the 25-year-old Superstar Juan stto to the new York Yankees
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