저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 급락 후 캐주얼다이닝 주식이 저평가 매수 기회라고 주장. 브링커(칠리스)는 분기 실적 호조(동일점포매출 31%, EPS 2.80달러)로 급등 후 조정받았으나 가치가 있다고 봄. 텍사스로드하우스는 7.6% 동일점포매출 성장과 자사주 매입(5억달러 규모)을 근거로 상승 여력 주장, 실제 매수 중. 크래커배럴은 턴어라운드 스토리로 리스크는 크지만 25~33% 하락 후 매수 추천. 경제 둔화 우려에도 소비자 가치 제공 업체가 유리하다는 논지.
다듬은 글
When the market's going up, everybody wants to wait for a pullback to buy stocks at a better price. But once stocks start rolling over, we get terrified and we can't bring ourselves to pull the trigger. Lately, we've experienced a wholesale liquidation. I think there's some great buying opportunities out there.
You just need to know how to find them. That's why tonight I want to walk you through some of my favorite casual dining stocks because we've had many of their CEOs on the show giving us real insight into the business. Take Brinker, the parent company of Chili's Imagianos. We had CEO Kevin Hawkman on the show at the end of January, right after Brinker reported one of the best quarters I've ever seen.
Chili's had 31% same store sales growth and the whole company earned $2.80 per share, nearly a full dollar ahead of the estimates. In response, the stock shot up more than 16% in a single day. And then it kept running all the way from 154 to 192 in early February. Since then though, Brinkers pulled back hard to 141 down substantially from where it was trading before the quarter.
So how the heck does the stock collapse like this in a little over a month after reporting a spectacular quarter? Now some of it's pure profit taking at the peak. Brinker was up mindboggling 315% over the previous 12 months. Now some of its valuation, some of the company, some of that companies keep talking about how they had softer traffic in early February, but that was bad weather.
Some of its tariff worries weighing on consumer sentiment. Given the scale of the decline here, we got to ask, is Breaker worth buying a weakness? Now, look, I've been a fan of this one for ages. I think the basic story hasn't changed at all. Breaker's been able to put up great numbers because it offers customers an incredible value proposition.
At Chili's, you get an appetizer, endless chless chips, and salsa, endless soft drinks, and a burger. All for $10.99. You need to wash it down. Well, try a $6 margarita month. This month, it's lemon drop. And by the way, they use top shelf uh they use top shelf tequila in this. This strategy has clearly been resonating with customers across all income levels.
Chili's may be the only place where you can see your average family at five eating next to someone wearing broni. Now, how do I know that? I'm the guy wearing the bioni. Plus, when I spoke to CEO Kevin Hawkman at the end of January, he was adamant that the last quarter was no flute. He explained that his team has been doing a great job of increasing the cultural relevance of Chili's with excellent ad placement, a lot of Tik Tok.
That's not even factoring in Majanos, which seems to be kind of an afterthought for investors, but not for Kevin Hawkman. The typical Majanos location does an extend outstanding $10 million in average unit volume. And even though it only has 50 locations, that mean it's got a ton of room to expand. Plus, Brinker stock is a heck of a lot cheaper than it was four or five weeks ago.
Next up is Texas Roadhouse. TXRH stock I like so much we decided to buy some for the Chapel Trust. Two weeks ago, these guys reported what I thought was a darn good quarter with better than expected savings store sales up 7.6. 7% alongside a healthy earnings beat. Sure, not as crazy as the results from Breaker.
Absolutely. But Texas Roadhouse is a much more mature company. Just happens to be a real steady operator with a lot of room to grow. Also, unlike Brinker, Texas Roadhouse has held up surprisingly well with the stock down only a few bucks from early February, even as it's had it had a tough week and a tough day.
At one point, it was down six and a half bucks today. That said, I like this one for the same reason I like Briger. Texas Roadhouse offers what I call relative value. It may be a steakhouse, but it's a bargain versus the competition. Where else can you get an 8 oz steak with two sides for $9.99 on Wild West Wednesdays?
$5 margaritas and of course the fresh rolls with cinnamon butter. Oh my god, they come on the table. It just I I I can't stop eating when I go to this place. When we spoke to CEO Jerry Morgan just two weeks ago, he acknowledged that while the beginning of February was a bit choppy, recent trends were encouraging.
But record Valentine's Day. Plus, Texas recently opened up their 750th systemwide location. They plan to open 30 restaurants this year across their three brands. There's a lot of room to expand. It doesn't hurt that the company's buying back stock hand over fist. Last year they repurchased $80 million worth of stairs and they just announced a new $500 million buyback authorization alongside the latest quarter.
Even though the stock hasn't been hit hard somewhat, it's been hit somewhat hard. It's still down nearly 30 points from its November highs. I think it's a proven winner. It can return to those levels which is why we've been buying for the chapters and we want to buy buy a heck of a lot more. Next up is Cracker Barrel.
Another one I'm really interested in. This is a stock that's fallen drastically over the past few weeks. But that's not without reason either with management blaming not just the weather, but also macroeconomic uncertainty is the reason for some of the challenges in early February. That's suboptimal.
So what's there like about it then? How about the stellar set of numbers that the company just reported yesterday morning with much better than expected same store sales growth. Macro uncertainty already baked in Cracker Barrel's four fourear forecast at this point, which they raised by the way. While management admitted that February got off to a challenging start, they said the last two weeks have seen meaningful improvement.
I like that. Not too surprised when you remember that Cracker Barrow also represents a stellar value proposition like the other two. Breakfast starting at $7.99 every day a week. And by the way, even with the eggs, they've kept the price low dining offer. There's an 8.99 dining issue. But and also, but you got to be in that loyalty club if you really want the bargains.
Trust me, I pay much more for their country fried steak with sawmill gravy. Now cockro is still very much a work in progress something that CEO Julie Msino is quite candid about. On the conference call she explained that this year is still an investment year before quote financial results will significantly improve by the second half of fiscal 2026 and further accelerate into fiscal 2027.
End quote. No wonder the stock's been a hard hit. Down more than 33% from its highs the end of January despite yesterday's 7% gain. Now, we had Julie on the show, and I point blank asked her if we can count on Cracker Barrel to be a refuge from all the craziness when you go to the stores, not to stop.
She explained how with the last two weeks of gone, mentioning that early February was only so bad because the weather was truly awful. They had to shut down some locations in Louisiana because it was snowy for heaven's sake. Come on, that's not a common occurrence. At this point, the stocks almost pulled back to where it was trading when I started recommending it last summer.
A U-turn. I think Cracker Barrow is a buy. Remember though, this is a turnaround story which makes it a lot more risky than either Brinker or Texas Roadhouse. But the bottom line, when you look at these three casual dining places, their stocks are down big from their highs. I think they're absolutely worth buying.
Even if the economy is truly headed for nasty slowdown, these chains offer the consumer great value and that's exactly what the consumer wants at this moment. Mad Money's back after the break. Coming up, is the downturn in Powell Industries a sign of the times or a warning sign for underlying weakness? Kramer's eyeing the recent moves in the stock .
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