저자: 미상 · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 마이클 배리는 인플레이션·재정부양·연준 정책이 맞물려 미국 경기침체와 자산가격 붕괴가 올 것이라고 경고한다. 거시경제 상황: 미국 CPI는 전년 대비 8.5%이며, 에너지 가격은 32% 상승, 휘발유 44%, 연료유 75%, 전기 15.2%, 천연가스 30.5% 상승했다고 언급된다. 경기침체 진단: 2022년 2분기 실질 GDP가 연율 -0.6%로, 1분기 -1.6%에 이어 2분기 연속 감소해 이미 경기침체 상태라고 설명된다. 증시 전망: S&P500이 1970년 이후 최악의 상반기를 기록했고, 배리는 6월 말 시장이 하락의 중간 지점쯤 왔다는 취지의 발언을 했다고 소개된다. 이후 지수는 등락이 컸다. 재정·정책 비판: 배리는 학자금 대출 탕감 등 대규모 재정지출이 단기적으로는 자산 하락을 늦추겠지만 결국 더 큰 폭락을 부른다고 비판했다. 연준에 대해서도 인플레 억제가 아니라 자산가격 방어를 위해 금리를 올리고 대차대조표를 축소한다고 비판했다. 소비·부채: 식품·연료·주거비 부담으로 저축이 줄고 부채가 늘고 있으며, 크리스마스 무렵 소비 둔화와 재고 처분을 위한 대폭 할인이 나오고 기업 이익과 성장이 훼손될 것이라는 전망이다. 달러·글로벌 영향: 달러는 위기 시 안전자산으로 강세를 보였고, 미국 경기 악화는 중국 금융 불안, 스리랑카 정치 불안, 신흥국 경제 타격 등 글로벌 파급을 낳을 수 있다고 언급된다. 리스크·조건: 재정 지원이 지속되면 단기 안정 후 더 큰 충격이 올 수 있으며, 금리 인상 지속 가능성도 리스크로 제시된다. 출연자 전망: 배리의 발언(과거 닷컴버블·2008 적중 이력 포함)을 중심으로 경기침체와 자산 하락을 전망하나, 구체적 목표가나 매매 지시는 없다. 한계: 영상 제목·설명란에 출연자 소속 정보가 없고, 자막 인식 오류가 있을 수 있다.
다듬은 글
according to American investor and hedge fund manager Michael burry we are currently in the middle of the worst economic disaster unlike any we have seen in this Century from skyrocketing costs of living all over the world to recessions rate Rises and political turmoil in developing countries like Sri Lanka not to mention the energy shortage doomed to engulf Europe as winter is coming it all seems like something out of a dystopian novel except it is not a hundred bucks pre-covered years say December 2019 has the same buying power as 115.29 in July 2022 URI is one of the very few that predicted the horrible economic crisis and the direction it is most likely to take recently Murray deleted his cryptic tweets including the ones directed at the U.S government and the Federal Reserve join us as we take a look at the deleted tweets in his economic predictions including the worsening inflation CPI is at 8.5 percent year on year with Energy prices burning a hole through the pockets of the people at a 32 percent increase the last 12 months in case you were wondering CPI stands for Consumer Price Index and this is the most important indicator of inflation in an economy the gasoline index was recorded at a 44 increase and the highest increase is with fuel oil at 75 percent as you would expect the index for electricity also Rose by 15.2 percent this is the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 2006 and in the last 12 months the natural gas index has risen by 30.5 percent with the winter months already close and the subsequent increase in demand for heat and energy one can only imagine the scale of the catastrophe that will ensue how things were done in the past was that the Federal Reserve would usually raise short-term rates in response to a higher CPI and an attempt to calm things down within the economy and keep inflation within the limits that can be managed but all metrics show that the economic crisis currently on our hands is not like any that we have ever seen before but this is not the first time Michael burry would be making predictions he had correctly predicted the.com bubble of the late 90s and became well known for his big short during the giant Financial meltdown of 2008 in 2005 bury told his investors to come in with him on a massive bet against the housing market and even though it took years for his prediction to fully play out they eventually did he returned a massive personal profit of 100 million dollars and made his investors content and richer with 700 million dollars profit from the start of the century to 2008 Michael burry's Scion Asset Management total returns had ballooned to over 480 percent but more recently on the 4th of August 2022 Michael bury tweeted this although he deleted it hours later the silliness is back after 1929 after 1968 after 2000 after 2008 the strain of silliness that transformed Bulls into bubbles completely and utterly disappeared but that familiar coveted era silliness is not dead yet like 2001 before Enron before 9 11 before WorldCom what did Michael burry mean by the statement the silliness with a capital S is back anyone who knows bury also knows that he has always been quite cryptic with his tweets he also made a reference to significant moments of economic turmoil in the past Century could it be the politics of the covet era or the sentiments of the general public it's quite the puzzle but Michael burry is not one to give many follow-up tweets since he is always deleting his tweets could it be for the sake of non-culpability who knows for months Marie has been forecasting a steep dive in stock prices and unfortunately it turned out to be exactly so as the S P 500 posted its worst half to the year since 1970.
at the end of June he made a statement that could be interpreted as a prediction that the market was about halfway through its decline since then however the S P 500 Index and the NASDAQ 100 have left investors watching on with mixed feelings things as the markets peaked and troughed through the recent weeks the strong U.S jobs report has also helped boost morale but there is also the likelihood of more rate hikes by the FED as if things could not be any worse the economy has entered a phase of contraction not witnessed in recent years according to the Bureau of economic analysis Real gross domestic product or real GDP for short decreased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2022.
this result came in following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter that is how we know we are currently in a recession two consecutive quarters of GDP decline the second quarter decrease was revised up 0.3 percentage points from the estimates released in July just in the past few days the American investor has dealt heavy criticism at the U.S government warning that too much stimulus would not only be counterproductive live but would most likely lead to a devastating downturn on the 25th of August he tweeted this with recent spending bills including student loan forgiveness now approaching two trillion dollars this year we have the emergence of the fiscal put on that Thursday he was basically suggesting that the government had decided to function as a put option for investors in order to help them limit their losses like universities that could increase tuition fees so that they can get more money from the government and forgiveness packages while the idea of debt forgiveness definitely sounds kind of compassionate it is important to note that the trillions of dollars being spent are taxpayers dollars many of whom have no college education in that sense would it be fair to pay off some people's debt at the expense of everyone else after all there's mortgages car loans and the like what would happen to people that are also unable to pay for these Michael tweet continues not just for covet anymore and will be as good for America's economy as sugar for babies the hedge fund manager was implying that fiscal support May halt the Steep decline in asset prices and economic growth in the short term but it will inevitably result in a worse crash as the days go by this act of compassion will only bring a moment of Calm before the violent storm apparently he tweeted in response to the announcement made by the president of the United States of America Joe Biden who made it public in the last week of August that his government plans to cancel ten thousand dollars in student debt for federal borrowers making under 125 thousand dollars a year in an attempt to provide relief to millions of people Michael burry had always been strongly opposed to excessive monetary and fiscal Aid even back in April 2022 he did not fail to point out that the trillions of dollars that the government pumped into the economy during the pandemic in the form of stimulus checks and direct support forgivable loans and even refinancing offers now the Silicon Asset Management boss questions how consumers could possibly fill the void in their finances left when those programs end and the lending standards inevitably begin to tighten up once more at that point not even higher wages would be enough not even the Federal Reserve has been spared from Michael burry's criticisms he made the claim that the central bank had become addicted to stimulus and even went further to accuse the FED of raising interest rates and also shrinking its balance sheet he said that this was done not to curb inflation but instead to ensure the FED could anchor asset prices up along with the entire economy when stocks and consumers spending slump as we have stated with the facts earlier American households are facing higher food Fuel and housing costs this means very little is left to save every month and for many it is even worse some families have started tapping into their savings and many others are already accruing debt as a result the hedge fund manager expects consumer demand to wane as Christmas approaches and retailers to slash prices heavily to get rid of excess inventory the direct consequence of this is the dragging down of company earnings and economic growth at large as well as inflation in the coming winter months how would this impact the World At Large since the United States is the largest economy in the world the positive or negative steps in policy making leave a major ripple effect all over the world from the bank runs in China to the resulting political instability in Sri Lanka and the predicted Devastation of the economies of third world countries will usher in a new Dark Age if the recourse to economic Prosperity does not begin soon The Big Short investor warns in another tweet that winter is coming for the U.S economy which will be the first of many dominoes referencing this bike in Consumer Debt net Consumer Credit balances are rising at record rates as consumers choose violence rather than cut back on spending in the face of inflation and the same tone Michael bury ants remember the savings glut problem no more covet helicopter crash taught people to spend again and it's addictive winter coming in that case what would become of the US dollar just as business standard puts it the dollar lubricates the global economy the US dollar is one side of about 90 percent of All Foreign Exchange transactions before the lockdowns it accounted for about six trillion dollars in activity every day everything ranging from tourists using their credit cards to companies making major International Investments as the world's most important currency the dollar often rises in times of turmoil such as these partly because investors consider it to be relatively safe and more stable as inflation has soared in recent months the dollar has gained tremendously this leads to an increase in interest rates and the worries over growth have also worsened just as the chief investment officer at an asset management firm Max gockman said one of the only ways an American can reap the rewards of a strong dollar is by going on holiday with a strong economy like the United States economy a country can attract foreign capital of gigantic proportions this would allow the nation to continue its role as a major consumption driving force that fuels the development of the world economies even though it is a debtor nation that borrows a lot of this money to consume this allows other countries to export to the United States and keep their own economies growing but the United States has not always lived up to its own ideals and this became apparent with the economic situation leading up to the 2008 crisis as it stands the economy should be kept on the road to recovery what are your thoughts on how that should be done
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