저자: 미상 · 외국인
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영상 결론: 부채 과잉으로 디레버리징(부채 축소) 이후 경기가 정상화되기 어렵고, 부채 확장 사이클은 끝났다는 비관적 시각이며 인프라 투자 확대가 원자재 등 실물 수요를 떠받칠 것이라는 견해다. 발언자는 Bridgewater(Ray Dalio 측) 영상이 신용 사이클과 '아름다운 디레버리징'을 설명했지만 지나치게 낙관적이라고 평가했다. 시장 개입으로 인해 자유시장이 아니므로 '아름다운 디레버리징'이 어떻게 가능한지 의문이라고 했다. 발언자는 Dalio가 영상에서 금을 언급하지 않았지만 실제로는 금을 5~10% 보유한 대표적 금 옹호자이며 현재도 축적 중일 것이라고 주장했다. Dalio가 1970년대 말~80년대 초 금 선물로 큰 돈을 벌었다는 점을 흥미로운 배경으로 언급했다. 부채 수준이 극단적으로 높아져 학자금·주택담보·자동차 대출 등이 일상화되었고, 사람들이 부채 상환에 몰두해 경제가 나아가지 못하는 지점에 가까워지고 있다고 봤다. 제로금리 대출도 받지 않을 정도로 부채 피로가 쌓였다고 언급했다. 중앙은행 부양책에도 경기 확장 사이클은 이미 과도하게 확장되어 끝났다고 평가했다. 부채 확장은 끝났지만 미국·글로벌 인프라 투자는 어떤 형태로든 대규모로 올 것이며, 이는 광업·기초소재 등에 긍정적이라고 봤다. 인프라 투자는 미국 재무부 지출 확대 형태로 나타날 수 있고, 일본·중국·한국 등이 아프리카 인프라에 투자하며 IMF 관련 자금도 얽혀 있다고 설명했다. 발언자 본인은 이 분야를 아직 공부 중이라고 밝혔으며, 인프라 지출이 디레버리징으로 잃은 모멘텀을 대체할 것으로 보지만 어떻게 전개될지는 두고 봐야 한다고 결론지었다.
다듬은 글
have you guys ever seen that uh 30 minute video uh produced by um I think it was Bridgewater Ray Gallo's company um that talks about credit cycles and uh and how how where we are in the credit cycle how it sort of oscillates up and down and then there's like a 70 year crash or something like that that that's pretty eye openening if a guy like this uhhuh he call it the beautiful deleveraging but the yes you know I don't know when I I mean it was a great video but I think it was maybe a little too optimistic because you know I don't understand how it's gonna be beautiful let's just say that distortions in the market now right there's too much intervention and I don't like to say manipulation but you know obviously these markets are they're not free markets anyway so I don't know how you're going to have this beautiful deleveraging and go back to a normal credit site I think it's G be quite crazy I I'll just add I find it amusing that I thought it was a very well done video I learned a bit from it but he doesn't mention gold anywhere and out of the big guys he's actually one of the biggest proponents of gold I think he owns somewhere between like five or 10% he's probably accumulating right now so I just find that so amusing that like talking about beautiful deleveraging and you know this and that but he doesn't actually mention like one of the things that he's adding like crazy and really like his his own history so fascinating because he made a small fortune in Gold Futures in the late 70s and early 80s but most people have no idea about that I I one of my YouTubes talked a little bit about it but he he will be an interesting person to follow because I think his whole tune will start to change in the next few years it's gonna have to because he's sort of like running to the hills and then at the same time trying to educate people as to you know this happens every now and again and this is normal but here's the thing we have debt has never been like such a normal thing as it is today like nowadays the average person um has student loans has a mortgage has you know their car it hasn't been paid for yet and and it's just like so normal that I think mathematically you get to a point where like the economy will not go anywhere because people are just trying to pay down debt or trying to ride off uh their losses and things like that and so I I think we're we're approaching this point where you know like there's is just too much debt um and not even to to get into the central banks and you know there's just you know a trillion here a trillion there it's all the same really it P so much forward consumption into the present day like after a certain point even if you give people free money I mean they've already spent it all like they don't want more free money like I mean you're always going to have the idiots who will never stop you know they're kind of the addicts that I was talking about particularly in real estate right um but you know for the most part I think even the most sensible person will be like I already have enough debt I don't want more you can offer me a 0% loan and I don't want to take it you know because I have too much debt and I think we're getting there and you know they keep trying to stimulate all this growth in the economy but you know this expansion cycle is just it's done it's over it's overdone I mean I mean that's how I see it um I think the the debt expansion in a way is over but I absolutely see infrastr ructure spending coming one way or another and that's that may take a few years for it to be on a colossal worldwide scale but I think that's a positive for um you know mining and you know basic Goods so so we we'll see about that yeah you mean something like the uh the new Silk Road like that kind of infrastructure build out or that that kind of thing also just like the us is going to start having um you know in uh you know more money being spent by the treasury rather than you know like money printing by by by the central banks I mean I I don't want to go you know get too too deep into that but I think that uh you'll you'll see you'll see infrastructure spending in the US you'll see it you'll see more stuff more investment in Africa like so yes you mentioned the Silk Road but I know that both Japan and China and even South Korea to an extent like they're looking to actually you know invest in invest in uh infrastructure projects in Africa so like you've got you know other countries some of them related to China some not even but uh you know some of this money is National and some of it is is you know going to be centered around the IMF and um all that stuff but but I you know it's it's it's something I'm still learning about but I feel that it's it it in a way it's going to replace the momentum lost by all the you know the debt deleveraging you know it's going to go into real stuff um so so we'll see how that works out but somehow that's going to transition
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