저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경기침체가 1~2년 내 올 것이며 그 강도는 현재 부채 수준 때문에 과거보다 클 것이라는 비관론이고, 로저스는 미국 국채 관련 숏(매도) 포지션을 유지하고 있다고 밝힘. 미국 조세 정책: 미국은 세금을 계속 늘려 단기 세수는 얻지만 장기적으로 자본과 기업가를 밀어낸다고 주장. 해법은 세율 인상이 아니라 약 9만 쪽에 달하는 복잡한 세법 개혁. 국제 조세 회피 관련 조치(역전 방지 규정)에 대해서도 비판적. 파나마 페이퍼스: 해외 계좌 자체는 합법적으로 자산을 분산하는 수단이며 보험처럼 누구나 가질 수 있다고 봄. 불법 행위는 결국 적발된다는 입장. 언론의 과장된 보도에 회의적. 중국 경제: 성장률 목표 6.5%로 낮아졌지만 정부 통계는 신뢰하지 않음. 과잉 투자와 부채로 기업 부실과 파산이 늘어날 것으로 봄. 중국 정부가 파산을 허용하겠다고 한 점에 의문을 제기. 글로벌 경기: IMF 라가르드의 위험 경고에 대해, 미국 실업률 등 통계가 작성 방식에 따라 왜곡된다고 주장. 세계 경제는 쇠퇴 중이며 일시적 반등은 있어도 상황은 더 나빠질 것이라고 봄. 중앙은행과 시장: 최근 3개월 위험자산 상승은 주로 중앙은행 조치(중국 위안화 공급, ECB 회사채 매입, 연준 완화적 태도)에 기인한다는 평가. 일본은행이 사실상 유일한 국채 매수자라고 언급. 시장이 점차 중앙은행을 무시하게 되고, 결국 시장이 중앙은행을 압도할 날이 올 것이라고 경고. 출연자 전망 요약: 미국 경기침체 임박(1~2년), 중국 기업·금융 부실 확대, 세계 경제 쇠퇴, 중앙은행 의존 시장의 취약성.
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Jim thanks for joining us again today I'm delighted to be here Jim Jim last week in the news we saw Barack Obama addressed the nation specifically in reference to both the Panama papers we're in numerous world leaders were found to have offshore accounts as well as in regard to the Treasury Department's announcement of anti inversion provisions to be added to the Tax Act that would prevent major US corporations from DOMA siling in lower tax jurisdictions his way to avoid paying us income tax how do you feel about all that America's finding more and more ways to tax people and raise taxes and yes it's a short-term benefit to the Treasury long-term it just drives people away I mean history is full over the past few hundred years of countries and nations which is driven capital and entrepreneurship away it's more the same thing it's it is not if the real problem is the tax system if they want to solve something you know reform the tax system with all these crazy laws straight crazy taxes and when Americans are taxed higher than most people in the world well I don't know about that Jim is resident of Ontario in Canada i can pay up to fifty three point five percent in the income taxes only don't worry states in america where you can pay fifty two percent well i don't want to go there our that's why many those states of losing population i'm indy is losing population every month well barack obama made it clear that he felt the Treasury had to act and that congress had to act to close the loopholes to keep more of the tax in the treasury department so that the government could function so is that what you're saying is that it is the government's job to close those loopholes and get more taxes in operation that instead closed loop over said reform the tax system so that America has a competitive tax system instead of an absurd taxes okay system is over 90,000 pages among most people and nobody is ever in for ninety thousand pages no it's one of the most absurd tax systems in the world you go back up when it was in declining the same sort of thing happened the laws were just endless endless nobody even knew the laws well what do you make of all the curfuffle about the panama papers i mean i guess that's i come up with another ugly place to go smells bad it sounds bad but then of course all I know is the headlines from the press and the press has to sell newspapers and TV so I don't know I is like there's certain legal and legitimate ways to to have your money outside of your own country and everybody should have some of his or her money outside their own country as an insurance policy if the people are doing things that are illegal I'm sure they're they're gonna pay for they gonna get caught you know okay changing gears for a minute here Jim christine lagarde the managing director of the IMF came out last night our last week rather and said that there is increased risk and uncertainty facing the global economy which he attributed to the three factors of low commodity prices conflicting monetary policies among some of the world's major central banks and China's economic slowdown now this would seem to contradict the u.s.
position that the global economy is on the course to recovery and especially in the u.s. that economic conditions are improving employment is improving and the requirement for central bank policy intervention is diminishing you Jim you go from bad to worse from the US Congress to the IMF I'm sorry are you going to go next good to say she's part of the problem that I are all part of the problem if the US says things are better but the u.s.
changes the way it counts him and it changes the way it counts inflation it changes the way it counts unemployment if they decide to think that you don't want to get you're not looking for a job anymore they just drop you off the list so that the unemployment looks better and better there are other people who counted in a consistent and maybe more rational way which shows that unemployment is going higher in the US now I don't know I don't count it either way but I do know that they do change the way they count in Washington there once in a while mmhmm yeah okay and so one of the other factors that's been sort of crawling up in the news cycle has been this increasing sentiment that china is heading more for a hard landing as a result of excessive debt then originally had been anticipated they've dropped their anticipated growth rate to six point five percent still better than anywhere else in the world but the the media seems to be playing up this idea that we're going to be in trouble because of Chinese debt well Jim I don't pay any attention to China's government officials numbers anymore than I pay attention to America's with Germany's or cannabis for that matter he's none of them really know it's all made up I do know that things are getting slower in China but Jim they have to they're one of the largest trading partners Japan is in recession many European nations are in recession you know parts of America are slowing down so if your customers are slowing down certainty parts of China must be slowing down and there has been over building in China and you your snooty point out that there's dead no a 2008 China could you help save the world because they had a lot of money saved for a rainy day it started raining and they started spending but now China has a lot of debt too I mean nothing like America or Portugal is the UK or something but even China has a lot of debt so you're going to see companies getting into trouble their customers are in trouble and they're going to get into more trouble some of them have debt it's been over building in some areas so you're going to see bankruptcies in China to the next time around which is going to scare the socks off a lot of people including the Chinese including me yeah oh I said the day you're my date the government says they're going to let people go bankrupt I hope they mean it Wow okay so what do you make of Trump statement that he says the u.s.
is heading for a massive recession well I certainly know where I'm on record as a thing that we're going to have a recession started within a year or two no question about that and it will be worse than any we've had in a long time perhaps in our lifetime because the debt is so so much higher now Jim hmm the last recession was a doozy because of the death of the death much much higher now you got you bet so do you still are you still essentially short the queue yes yeah okay so that's that's the strategy you're you're sticking to your guns on that but you think the US economy is heading into a recession who knows if i'm right or not but you know that's what I'm doing sure sure okay no Jim let's look at the last quarter here which just ended march 31st we saw the major markets rallied and they closed either flat or slightly higher on average except for Asia which is uniformly down and so do you think that as a result of looking back at the first quarter that the world is headed more towards crisis or more towards a recovery no we're headed more to it some people are obviously had a George recovered but for the most part the world is in decline the world economy is in decline and it's going to get worse not better they see soon it will be there will be rallies because you know when people things get bad and we saw it already you know everybody calls up Washington and says oh my gosh you must save us it it's a collapse of Western civilization you've got to do something and of course they're just bureaucrats and academics in Washington they don't know anything so they come riding to the rescue that's what's happened it'll happen again yeah I assure but but the market is more and more ignoring those central bankers and taking it's only mm-hmm I've heard it said by traders and portfolio manners managers that they feel that in many cases the central banks are the only bid in the market in other words the only time risk on trade manifests itself in positive moves in markets in the last three months is when there's a central bank move to induce some kind of risk on trade China printing 400 billion yuan mario draghi announcing that he's going to start buying 20 billion euros a month in corporates janet yellen deciding that or announcing rather that they're going to take a softer approach towards raising rates do you think that's a pretty accurate assessment that in many cases the central bank is you only bid in the market absolutely certainly true in Japan Japanese central banks of the only buyer japanese government bonds like whozzat American not the only buyer but almost the only fire our central bank no it's it's happening everywhere as I said before the markets are paying less and less attention to the central bank's and there's going to come a time when the markets are going to overwhelm the central bank you bet all right Jim that's a great update let's leave it there for now we'll come back to you again and a quarter and see where we're at okay thank you thank you bye for now be worried be careful sure well you Tina is heading more for a hard landing as a result of excessive debt then originally had been anticipated they've dropped their anticipated growth rate to six point five percent still better than anywhere else in the world but the the media seems to be playing up this idea that we're going to be in trouble because of Chinese debt well Jim I don't pay any attention to China's government officials numbers anymore than I pay attention to America's with Germany's or or cannabis for that matter none of them really know it's all made up I do know that things are getting slower in China but Jim they have to they're one of the largest trading partners Japan is in recession many European nations are in recession you know parts of America are slowing down so if your customers are slowing down certainty parts of China must be slowing down and there has been over building in China and you your snooty point out that there's dead no a 2008 China could you help save the world because they had a lot of money saved for a rainy day it started raining and they started spending but now China has a lot of debt too I mean nothing like America or Portugal is the UK or something but even China has a lot of debt so you're going to see companies getting into trouble their customers are in trouble and they're going to get into more trouble some of them have debt we've been over building in some areas so you're going to see bankruptcies in China to the next time around Jim thanks for joining us again today I'm delighted to be here Jim Jim last week in the news we saw Barack Obama addressed the nation specifically in reference to both the Panama papers we're in numerous world leaders were found to have offshore accounts as well as in regard to the Treasury Department's announcement of anti inversion provisions to be added to the Tax Act that would prevent major US corporations from domus Eiling in lower tax jurisdictions is way to avoid paying us income tax how do you feel about all that America is finding more and more ways to tax people and raise taxes and yes it's a short-term benefit to the Treasury long-term it just drives people away I mean history is full over the past few hundred years of countries and nations which is driven capital and entrepreneurship away it's more the same thing it's it is not if the real problem is the tax system if they want to solve something you know reform the tax system with all these crazy laws straight crazy taxes and with Americans are tax higher than most people in the world well I don't know about that Jim is resident of Ontario in Canada i can pay up to fifty three point five percent in income taxes only don't worry states in america where you can pay fifty two percent well i don't want to go there that's why many of those states of losing population I mean Duke is losing population every month well Barack Obama made it clear that said that there is an increased risk and uncertainty facing the global economy which he attributed to the three factors of low commodity prices conflicting monetary policies among some of the world's major central banks and China's economic slowdown now this would seem to contradict the u.s.
position that the global economy is on the course to recovery and especially in the US that economic conditions are improving employment is improving and the requirement for central bank policy intervention is diminishing will you Jim you go from bad to worse from the US Congress to the IMF I'm sorry are you going to go take a good to say she's part of the problem that I are all part of the problem if the US says things are better but the u.s.
changes the way it counts him and it changed the way it counts inflation it changes the way it counts unemployment if they decide to think that you don't want to get you're not looking for a job anymore they just drop you off the list so that the unemployment looks better and better there are other people who counted in a consistent and maybe more rational way which shows that an unemployment is going higher in the US now I don't know I don't count it either way but I do know that they do change the way they count in Washington every once in a while mmhmm yeah okay and so one of the other factors that's been sort of crawling up in the news cycle has been this increasing sentiment that children which is going to scare the socks off a lot of people including the Chinese including me yeah oh I said today Yama they the government says they're going to let people go bankrupt I hope they mean it Wow okay so what do you make of Trump statement that he says the u.s.
is heading for a massive recession well I certainly know where I'm on record as saying that we're going to have a recession surgery within a year or two no question about that and it will be worse than any we've had in a long time perhaps in our lifetime because the debt is so so much higher now Jim the last recession was a doozy because of the death or the death much much higher now you got you bet so do you still are you still essentially short the cube yes yeah okay so that's that's the strategy you're you're sticking to your guns on that but you think the US economy is heading into a recession who knows if I'm right or not but you know that's what I'm doing sure sure okay no Jim let's look at the last quarter here which descended March 31st we saw the major markets rallied and they closed either flat or slightly higher on average except for Asia which is uniformly down and so do you think that as a result of looking back at the first quarter that the world is headed more towards crisis or more towards a recovery no we're headed more toward some people are obviously hadn't George recovered but for the most part at he felt the Treasury had to act and that Congress had to act to close the loopholes to keep more of the tax in the Treasury Department so that the government could function so is that what you're saying is that it is the government's job to close those loopholes and get more taxes you know who professed had reform the tax system so that America has a competitive tax system instead of an absurd taxes okay system is over 90,000 pages among most people I nobody's ever read the ninety thousand pages no it's one of the most absurd tax systems in the world you go back to Rome when it was in declining the same sort of thing happened the laws were just endless endless nobody even near the laws well what do you make of all the curfuffle about the panama papers i mean i guess that's i come up with another ugly place to go smells bad it sounds bad but then of course all i know is the headlines from the press and the press has to sell newspapers and TV so i don't know I his life there's certainly legal and legitimate ways to to have your money outside of your own country and everybody should have some of his or her money outside their own country as an insurance policy if the people are doing things that are illegal I'm sure they're gonna pay for they gonna get caught you know okay changing gears for a minute here Jim christine lagarde the managing director of the IMF came out last night or last week rather and
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