저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 미국 인플레이션은 이미 연준 목표치 2% 수준으로 내려왔다는 것이 시걸의 판단이다. 1행 결론과 핵심 주장: 시걸 교수는 1분기 실적은 대부분 SVB 사태 이전(3월 중순 이전) 데이터라서 대출 축소의 실적 영향은 아직 반영되지 않았다고 본다. 대출 축소 영향: 지역은행의 중소기업 대출이 현장에서 크게 둔화되었으나 공식 데이터에는 아직 잡히지 않았다고 주장한다. 중소기업과 소매 등은 타격을 받을 수 있고, 대형은행은 신용·자본 여력으로 오히려 수혜를 볼 수 있다는 시각이다. 주택 가격과 인플레이션: 주택가격은 계속 하락 중이며 다음 주 케이스-실러 지수가 8개월 연속 하락을 보여줄 수 있다고 한다. 공식 통계(BLS)는 높은 주택 물가를 보이지만 진행자는 현재 가격 기준 계산으로 근원 전년비 약 2%로 보았다. 인플레이션 판단: 진행자는 시걸의 판단을 인용하며 인플레이션이 연준 목표치 2% 수준까지 내려왔다는 입장이다. 다만 공식 통계와의 괴리를 지적하며 경계할 필요를 언급한다. 리스크 및 조건: 대출 축소 효과가 실적에 본격 반영될 가능성, 공식 주택 지표와 실거래 가격의 괴리가 주요 불확실성이다. 출연자 전망: 시걸은 은행 대출 둔화가 실적에 늦게 영향을 줄 것이라는 시각이며 특정 자산의 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
hey there fellow Finance enthusiasts today I want to discuss is inflation already down to the fed's Target of two percent wardens Jeremy embark on an electrifying Journey that will tickle your funny bone ignite your curiosity and challenge your financial perspective who'd better guide us through this thrilling adventure than the brilliant Jeremy from Wharton School of Business but before we delve into the intricacies of interest rates and economic jargon let's take a quick detour and explore the fascinating world of earnings season with news buzzing from all corners from unexpected developments to eye-popping reports from major players such as the legendary Bank of Pam Erica Yes you heard that right and the highly anticipated Netflix and Tesla it's time to Crunch those numbers and see if reality aligns with our expectations grab your calculator and brace yourself for an exhilarating guide through the world of Finance trust me it's going to be worth every penny or should I say every percentage point that boy our economy finds itself a in a state of blissful equilibrium with inflation gracefully poised in its ideal range it's a cause for jubilation akin to stumbling upon a chest of treasure in the vast economic landscape as we bask in the glory of this achievement let's raise our glasses and celebrate the harmonious dance between stability and success but amidst this festive atmosphere it's essential to remain Vigilant and seek wisdom from a knowledgeable person his insights will shed light on the potential repercussions of the banking crisis-induced lending slowdown on earnings across various sectors of the economy let's now hear from Jeremy on his insights regarding how the slowdown in lending caused by the banking crisis could potentially impact earnings in various sectors of the economy well they're pretty good to say the least but we have to remember first quarter is virtually all pre-svb um you know that which occurred around the middle of March so uh you know we're not getting in these earnings what affect the slowdown in lending really might impact uh Jeremy unveils a fascinating puzzle highlighting that the first quarter's earnings are just the tip of the iceberg dominated by the svb phenomenon but here's the twist we're yet to witness the full impact of the lending slowdown on those earnings it's like a hidden treasure waiting to be discovered even the data confirms it imagine a tale of March housing starts set in motion before the banking crisis the small guys might face a bumpy road not just in housing but in retail and Beyond however the big players with their lines of credit and capital could ride this wave and emerge Victorious It's like a classic tale of David and Goliath where the crisis unexpectedly boosts earnings for the mighty Giants particularly the large Banks we've all witnessed and the ripple effect extends throughout the entire Economy Painting a picture of resilience and potential Prosperity so brace yourselves for an enthralling Journey as we navigate the twists and turns of this captivating Financial landscape foreign as we delve deeper into Jeremy's mesmerizing speech we find ourselves caught in a web of intrigue and possibility the banking crisis like a sudden storm has left its mark on the landscape of earnings the impact of the lending slowdown akin to a gust of wind has the potential to reshape various sectors of the economy is the situation even more dire than we realize the Whispers from the ground reveal a stark reality lending to small businesses from Regional Banks has experienced a significant slowdown the impact is palpable though it may not yet be reflected in the official data as a result a sense of caution lingers in the air echoing the sentiments of Austin Goolsby will the decision makers take heed and pause or will they proceed without pause unless confronted with further deteriorating data well I think the effect of the the banking crisis I mean what I hear on the ground is that that the lending to the small guy from Regional Banks has slowed uh dramatically and the impact is there it's just not in the data yet and uh as a result you know it's it's my feeling uh you know I fear Austin Goolsby the banking crisis is like watching a sloth in action but without the endearing charm the repercussions have reached far and wide and it seems like the regional banks are moving at a pace that even a snail would scoff at the effect well let me tell you it's hitting the small guy like a gentle breeze in a marathon picture this you're a small business owner ready to Take On the World with your innovative ideas and entrepreneurial Spirit you march into a Regional Bank full of Hope only to be greeted with a lethargy that could rival a tortoise on a sleepy Sunday afternoon The Lending process which once had a semblance of efficiency has now become a labyrinthine journey of paperwork and endless waiting ah yes very funny right you see these Regional banks used to be the heroes of the small business World providing the lifeblood of capital to fuel dreams but alas in the wake of the banking crisis they seem to have lost their Gusto the flow of funds has slowed to a crawl like a sloth trying to break the land speed record the impact of this sluggishness is already evident on the ground even if the data hasn't caught up yet small businesses are feeling the pinch and it's not a gentle pinch like a caring grandmother's fingers it's more like a vice grip from a grumpy Troll the wheels of progress are grinding to a halt and the small guy is left twiddling his thumbs waiting for a loan approval that seems to be perpetually stuck in limbo the sentiments of Austin Goolsby who famously said it's time to pause and by pause it's time for the regional Banks to shake off their sluggishness put on their running shoes and get back in in the race so let's hope that these Banks find their inner cheetah leaving behind the sloth-like Tendencies and embracing a Speed and Agility that would make Usain Bolt proud because at the end of the day it's small businesses that drive the economy forward and they deserve a lending process that's as Swift as a gazelle on caffeine I I think there's there's a couple things that he thinks uh first of all I think he really under estimates the slowdown in housing we've talked about the Distortion in the data in the housing data when data in housing prices is still going down next week we'll get case shower which might show the eighth consecutive decline in in housing prices even though the BLS continues to show higher prices so I in fact I've done a calculation using current uh prices and core year over year using current housing prices both on rentals and on owner occupied homes is down to two percent year over year but it's over five percent in the official statistics so I think inflation basically is is backed down to the fed target Jay Powell the master interpreter of economic data it seems he might have missed a few crucial details in his analysis while he talks about the Distortion in housing data the reality is that prices continue their downward descent painting a not so Rosy picture brace yourselves because next week's case Schiller report could very well unveil the eighth consecutive decline in housing prices but here's the kicker while the Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS parades higher prices my trusty calculations reveal a different tale using current prices core year-over-year data we find ourselves at a modest two percent inflation rate miles away from the inflated five percent in those official statistics so it appears that inflation has taken a detour and caused it up comfortably within the fed's Target and there you have it we've embarked on an exhilarating journey into the world of inflation Guided by the invaluable insights of Wharton's Jeremy but wait our Quest doesn't end here the question lingers in the air has inflation truly found its way down to the federal reserve's coveted two percent Target are we basking in the Tranquility of economic stability or are there storm clouds Brewing on the horizon so my fellow enthusiasts armed with Jeremy's astute observations and our shared determination let us sail forth with confidence and curiosity let us chart our course amidst the tempestuous waves of economic fluctuations undeterred by the whims of inflation to get together we shall weather the storms seize the opportunities and steer our financial ships towards the shores of prosperity as our Expedition draws to a temporary close remember this Mantra stay curious stay informed and stay financially fabulous until we rendezvous again for our next enthralling Voyage Through the Realms of economic insights may your financial Endeavors be filled with Triumph and your purses brimming with abundance bon voyage my dear Companions and may the Winds of Fortune forever be at your back
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