저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 피터 린치는 주식 투자의 7가지 잘못된 통념(하락주는 반드시 회복, 바닥이 있다, 고점이 있다, 낮은 주가=낮은 위험, 나쁜 회사도 개선, 매도 기준가 집착, 놓친 주식에 대한 후회)을 경계하라고 강조한다. 원칙 1·2: 주가 하락 후 반드시 회복한다는 믿음과 '더 이상 내려갈 수 없다'는 생각은 위험하다. 카이저 인더스트리 사례에서 29달러→17→10→4달러까지 하락했고, 부채가 없어도 주가는 0까지 갈 수 있다는 점을 강조. 원칙 3: 주가가 많이 올랐다고 더 오르지 않는다고 단정하지 말라. 실제로 모리스 등은 수 배 상승 후에도 계속 올랐다는 사례 언급. 원칙 4: 주가가 낮다고 위험이 낮은 것이 아니다. 3달러 주식도 전액 손실 가능, 손실 규모는 보유 금액 기준으로 생각해야 한다. 원칙 5: 나쁜 회사(예: 화물차 수주 급감, 석유 시추 산업 침체)라도 개선되지 않을 수 있으며, 업황이 더 나빠질 여지가 있다고 경고. 다만 업황 회복 사례도 함께 언급. 원칙 6: 본전이 되면 팔겠다는 식의 매도 기준 고정은 잘못이다. 주식은 내가 샀는지 모른다는 점을 강조. 원칙 7: 놓친 주식에 대한 후회는 무의미하다. 손실은 보유한 주식에서만 발생하며, 놓친 종목을 쫓으며 걱정하는 것은 의미 없다. 결론적으로 장기 관점에서 기업 펀더멘털을 보고, 감정적 판단과 통념을 경계하라는 메시지. 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없음.
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to make twenty thousand money three times like I had no idea I thought the stocks are going north I had no idea they looked back 10 years later and said my God I made a lot of money in this thing but once I went into thinking I could make four times my money I've never broken even so don't do the long shot that's they don't work it's an eight simply don't work and again if it stocks three and it has huge potential write down the story pick the stock symbol if it's going to 300 it's okay to buy the 15.
checking later check a year later see if it's still listed and then still get a hold on Welcome Back Rich followers we hope this video inspires you to get started on your dream so please watch until the end and if you are new here consider subscribing so that you won't miss other educational videos like this let's get started principle one if a stop goes down that does not mean that it will go back up in the future eventually they always come back that's a technical stock market term we just use only in the stock market the RCA just it back was 1929 price was barbed out by G Manvel never came back in the National Harvester even with its name Chase and Justin for split says got all the way back yet Western Union double knits remember those wonderful things floppy disks they don't have to come back but they say eventually they always come back not true principle two a stock can go down as low as it wants to here's a good one it's gone down this much already can't go any lower I'm going to pull away by 140 to about 107 people said if you ever get polar at under 100 you gotta buy it there's back up the truck butt stock broke a hundred people start buying it and within nine months the stock was 18.
so just saying it's gone down this far you know how much lower it's crazy but you know it can keep going in fact I tried Kaiser industries that was a new Analyst at fidelity and we're about to buy the biggest block ever at Kaiser Industries the stock had gone from 29 to 17. we're about to buy the largest block ever in the history of the American Sergeant we bought 10 or 15 million shares That's Just Dance record as I said my God the Stock's gone from 29 to 17 how much longer can it go so we buy this enormous block at 15 quarters so I called my mother and I said Mom I guess soccer kaisins because it's 10.
about three months later said you ought to buy this it's gone from 29 to 10 how much lower can it go went to nine and went to eight it went to seven and went to six went to five and went to four now fortunately this happened very rapidly where I'd be working at the Stop and Shop bag and beyond the line don't say the Fidelity so fortunately this was compressed in only about six months so I had to go the thumbnail to say I was a little bit early on this at 15 and three quarters we call this premature in the business that had a correction which you know is a euphemism losing a lot of money rapidly so I said let's check this again stocks for they own 25 percent of Kaiser Aluminum they're 59 of Kaiser steel they own 38 percent of guys cement I think all of Kaiser Electronics all the Kaiser broadcasting she has seven TV sets on Jeep the Kaiser fiberglass said about Kaiser Santa gravity a bunch of other Kaisers and they had no debt no one's ever gone bankrupt without any debt I think you have to get some kind of distinguished service award if somebody did it but they had no debt I said it's not going to go to zero I was wrong when I said it can't go below 15.
so we hung on and within three years they gave out the shares and guys still gave out the shares of guys it's been gave out the shears and Kaiser steel and aluminum and they sold off all the businesses you got 55 a share but if you didn't know the story in stock went from 1511 and you're just saying how much lower can it go when it went to 918 you would have gone so you can't just say you can't go any lower because I saw Taco Bell go from 14 to 1 in 1974 and they had no death making 60 cents a share principle three a stock can go as high as it wants there's a coral area that's even more dangerous it's gone this high already how can it possibly go higher Cilla Morris adjusted for splits sold for 12 cents in 1951.
then it goes to 16 sets in 1961. because of five fold you say yourself how much this never sold them just for what's to say how much higher can this go it's kind of thoughtful they missed the power of Marlboro they missed this 220 countries in the world they missed the cash flow of the company they missed everything this stock was a hundred bagger after going up five-fold but people sold it just saying how much higher gonna go can't go any hard they did the same in Home Depot they do the same Toys R Us I did the same thing for those rest just saying it can't go any higher it's gone this much already that's very dangerous and don't use that one and it's a very bad thing to do princess IV a low stock price does not mean lower risk it was a great one it's three dollars how much can I lose this is a greater this is I don't have a computer and I can't do high level math but just do this one let's say your neighbor buys ten thousand dollars of a stock at 60.
it sucks now three and you put twenty five thousand dollars in a tree when it goes to zero who loses the most a lot of people cannot answer this question if you've got a billion in a three you can lose a billion they blow Taps and lots of companies every year they can go to zero principle five just because the company is bad does not mean it will get better over time here's a good one that helped me a lot It's always darkest before the dawn the this business is terrible it's awful you ought to buy the group this is not a good way of making money here's one you're probably talking about before lunch here freight car deliveries so 1979 was 96 000 Freight cards delivered United States two years later it's all the forty five thousand the lowest in 23 years it goes from 96 000 to 45 000.
people say business is awful it's horrible pathetic then it falls to 25 they say well just load up there's about 16 opportunities to lose money there's about 15 suppliers of freight cars 50 manufacturers business was awful well last year we shipped seven thousand Freight cars in high schools the business just continue to be miserable and there's even greater opportunity to lose money on Energy Services industry this we all had a great opportunity to get our debts hand to us in 1982 there was 11 000 of those oil rigs to filling those holes all of Oklahoma and Texas Colorado we used to have the recount every week and the recount fell from 11 000 in 82 into 6083.
then fell a little bit lower than 84 there's hundreds and hundreds of companies here companies have made the mods and did the down hole stuff the fracturing companies well companies the shambershes the bid companies lots of our Tunes lose money here is equal opportunity here for serious losses and people said listen this is terrible let's buy these the recount was only a thousand three years ago so it went from eleven thousand to six thousand to five thousand then eight years later was under a thousand Unity really started to turn about two years ago so just saying the business can't get worse I was lucky enough to additional medals into a star Fidelity I had the Texans which is a great group to follow we should follow companies like JP Stevens is found in the 18th century and West Point Pepperell was found in the 18th century but was one of the new companies was founded Channel 4.
these people have been through recessions depressions were Wars they've seen it all it's a great expression technology It's always darkest before pitch black now that's a good one to remember because this is terrible you can get considerably terrible you're terrible the power is six principle six never hope a stop goes back to a certain level before selling always know where you will get out before you get in on a rebound to 10 I'll sell is a great move somebody buys a stock at 10 and it falls to six let's see if it gets back to 10 I'll sell now I think the math four and six I think that's about a six or six percent return You Gotta Buy it if you think it's going back to 10 yard by the hell of a damn thing but they think if it gets back to 10 I'll sell now what you ought to do is never put down a round number because I think the next 26 years is starting between five and nine and a quarter it will never get to ten so maybe put 983 three quarters but just saying the stock if it gets back what I paid for it this is a very important rule this is a very it's one of the key rules the stock doesn't know you own it you can be a miserable person you could have never helped anybody never done anything right you had 67 spouses never done anything right if you owned Coca-Cola last 50 years it's gone up 300 full you'd be the greatest human in the world help Special Olympics help the mentally challenged to help four people abates people go on Bethlehem Steel it's lower than was 30 years ago it's not your fault don't take this person they think the stock knows who you are it doesn't work that way I don't have to worry I own conserve themselves I'm in Con Ed sell 80 then triple the public service Indiana went down 90 Gulf States utilities Along on lighting this may be oxymoron with quality Texas banks that went to zero we had quality New England banks that went to zero these are companies have been around for 150 years 120 years say I own can service stocks I don't have to worry I've seen a lot of people don't inherit a stock from somebody they'll say my mother said on her deathbed don't sell the Long Island lighted I always wondered Mr she's going to heaven or hopefully where she's going to heaven they talk about a little league game or a vacation or game of Hearts they had better imagine talking on your deathbed about Long Island lighting but yet these stories all the time and I think your mother would have noticed she went a solo 29 but she wouldn't she would notice say this little plant that was about six billion over budget no one wanted it and was working and uh Long Island stopped growing so maybe she went Turf to the 22 or get up at 18 she wouldn't let it go to four so just be sure inherit some stock and so called conservative like he's from codex so 75 IBM feels 75 don't tell anybody you want a good service stock companies are very Dynamic I don't buy that argument principle seven don't worry about stocks you miss there will be others here's a very dangerous one look at all the money I've lost I didn't buy it people do this all the time and say I didn't own Blockbuster I didn't own Home Depot I don't know Toys R Us I lay one of my books listed on two pages in The 13 years of ram Magellan I listed I think about 200 stocks a through L on the other side exchange they went up 10 fold or more that I didn't own well I ran Magellan I have on lots of stocks I listed 200 stocks eighth oil I stopped the letter L and I didn't know any shares they went up 104 or more and I was able to do okay with Magellan and people worry all the time about missing Microsoft missing Western Digital mystery night Airlines they spent all their time worrying about stocks they miss you cannot lose money in a stock you don't own the only way to lose money is buy stock have it go down here and sell it that's the only way and I swear the people that their spouse has to cut out the newspaper in the morning tell the Seas personal look at the yams oh my God Microsoft's three I had I was gonna buy a thousand shares of Microsoft I lost 3 000 Microsoft last night when I was sleeping I was gonna buy seven thousand shares of national semic Decker 10 it's now 17 I just lost 49 000 on National send me a packet they do this all the time they think God Blockbuster filing places that would rule in the alphabet people would always be looking obviously lost the Blockbuster I missed that one I'll catch the next one that usually does not work if you found value in this video we would like to give you another video for you to enjoy next please like this video and share it with your friends on social media don't forget to subscribe if you are new here so you won't miss another one of our videos the more you learn the more you earn
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