저자: Jorge · 외국인
요약 보기
사회자는 BLS 고용 수정치(2024.4~2025.3 기준 약 91만 1천 명 하향)를 근거로 미국 노동시장이 생각보다 약하며, 경기 둔화 신호(목재 가격 23% 하락, 금 강세 등)가 누적되고 있다고 주장한다. 나스닥은 신고가지만 경기와 괴리돼 있어 조정 위험이 있다고 보며, 과도한 AI 성장주 비중을 줄이고 비상금(3~6개월치 생활비)과 지출 절감을 권한다. 다만 경기침체 확정이나 미국 붕괴는 본인이 동의하지 않는다고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
I think every day we receive one or two news stories that tell us that the United States economy is not where it needs to be and that we are seeing how those cracks that I've been talking about for about a year are opening up more and more. This is what you found with a bag that's still at super highs.
The Nasdaq is reaching new highs today and growing even more. This makes many people wonder what's really going on. Are we facing a market downturn or a market surge? What's happening with this economy? My goal with this video is simply to share with you these new reports and give you my opinion on what I think might happen, or rather, what we should do.
As usual, I hope you like this video, find it helpful, and learn something from it. If this is the case, all I ask in return is that you destroy that like button. It really helps the channel a lot, and if you like this type of content about financial news, how to manage our money, investments, and so on, and you want to subscribe, you are obviously more than welcome to do so.
But anyway, without further ado, let's jump right into the news that came out today, since I hadn't planned to make this video today, but as soon as I saw the news I said, "I have to make a video and tell you about my thoughts." Today we received the news that job growth from April 2024 to March 2025 had been overestimated by 911,000 jobs.
Let me translate this into Spanish for you so we can see it more simply, but we can see below how revisions to nonfarm payroll data for the previous year in March 2025 showed a drop of 911,000 compared to initial estimates according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. This, by the way, is at the high end of Wall Street's expectations , as they were expecting this number to be adjusted by between 600,000 and 1 million, and we ended up receiving those 911,000.
These revisions were more than 50% larger than the adjustment we saw last year and have been the largest recorded since 2002, right? A very good year. Based on a monthly advance. Incidentally , this suggests an average job growth of 76 or so per month. Now, let's keep in mind that this means two very bad things for the economy.
Number one, it tells us that the job market was much weaker than initially thought in 2024. Let's see if they make it if they've been following the channel; I imagine they know this isn't a surprise to anyone. We've been discussing it over and over again, talking about how those labor figures are unreliable.
And by the way, this is not a political comment. It was happening in 2024 with Biden, it's still happening now with Trump. So I don't want you to take it from that point of view. And I know many will say, "Okay, Jorge, the past is in the past, that doesn't matter." And that's where the second thing that I think is very worrying about these numbers leads us, and that is that yes, this information is not up to date because we are looking at numbers from back, but who is going to tell us that these numbers that we have received from April onwards will also be perfect in 2025?
The first thing we have to keep in mind is that the job market has already been very weak during the summer months. During the summer months, here we can see June, July and August, the average payroll growth was only 29,000 jobs created per month below the break-even level needed to keep the unemployment rate stable .
And if in these times, around September of 2025, we receive a huge downward revision for the numbers of 2024, and in September of 2024 we received a downward revision of around 818,000 jobs, which was later adjusted to 600,000, but also in the previous 2 years, in the previous 2 years the numbers we received the previous year have been revised downwards .
Do you really think these numbers are what they are, or that in September 2026 they're going to come back and revise these numbers downwards again? Look, let's keep in mind that based on how the labor market has been since March 2025, we're seeing incredible weakness. We're talking about 120,000 jobs added in March, which is pretty good, and around 158,000 in April, which is very good.
But look at this here. May, 19,000 jobs added, June negative 13,000. July positive 79 and this will possibly be revised downwards again. August 22,000 and this will possibly be revised downwards again . And by the way, keep in mind that all these numbers we 're talking about, all those from 2024, were revised downwards a couple of months later.
Those who have been following me on the channel and elsewhere know that normally how this works with the job market and reports is that let's assume we're in September, right? The August figures are released the first week of September . That's a very rough estimate. In October, they not only release the September figures, but they also review the August figures, and then in November they first review the August figures again, and in most cases, all of this is revised downwards.
So, if we go back to this , we're talking about a good possibility that the United States economy, after all the monthly and annual reviews, is currently losing jobs and lost them in May, in June, and also in August. I don't know about you, but for me this doesn't justify a stock market that we're seeing at new all-time highs on the Nasdaq, since we're not seeing a solid economy.
Okay, this news just came out here, by the way, which says that JF Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Ren says the economy is weakening. I do n't know what you all think about this. Um, once again, I'd love to hear your opinions, let me know in the comments, but this worries me a lot because we do have a Fer that can lower interest rates and that helps the economy, but we have to remember that when the Fer lowers interest rates, this is not an immediate effect, it takes 6 months or a year to take effect.
In other words, we could see 6 months, a year of a lot of pain, even if Fer lowers interest rates to 0% tomorrow. So I'll ask you one more question: what do you think about this? Because I'm going to give you my opinion about all of this. Now I think we are seeing a market that is absurdly, we are seeing too much superficial optimism, especially driven by artificial intelligence.
I'm thinking of making a video about artificial intelligence, which is the one I wanted to release today, but it won't be possible today. And I think we need to be very cautious. We are facing a major recession like 2008. I personally do n't think so. We are facing the end of the United States and it's going to end.
No, I personally don't think that's the case. I simply believe that the economy is not doing well and the stock market is doing very well, which could end up leading us to a significant drop in the markets and, since the economy itself is not doing well, to a bad economic period as such. What can we do to better prepare ourselves for these kinds of things?
As we've discussed a lot here on the channel, trying to cut expenses, whether necessary or unnecessary, especially the unnecessary ones, which by the way I'll always leave in the description the link to the insurance table, where you can put your information through my website and you can receive better offers with your car insurance.
I've received a lot of testimonials from people who have saved a lot of money there. My parents themselves closed about $200 a month. Friends have saved over a hundred and many of you have also saved a lot of money. It doesn't mean that everyone will save money. Once again, roughly 75% of people, based on the numbers I've seen, end up saving money.
But take a look around because we might be able to save money on anything; I think that's very important. Now, once again, and whatever, you can spend less by going out on unnecessary things, that's going to help a lot. Why is it important to cut expenses? Very simply, if you lose your job tomorrow or something like that, it's much easier to survive if you have fewer fixed expenses and non-fixed expenses as well.
Also, if you cut your expenses, this will mean that you increase your savings, which would lead us to the other thing that I think is very important that we all have to do now, and that is to have an emergency fund. If you don't have an emergency fund that covers 3 to 6 months of your monthly expenses, I've been saying this since 2024, and I've been saying this since 2024 because it's not something that is created overnight, it takes time.
And based on all the cracks we were seeing in the economy back then, well, we had time, right? I believe that all those people who have started building their fund should already be at least three months along. And I truly believe that emergency fund is the most important thing for everyone. And this really doesn't matter if we go into a recession or not, we should always have a fund because this will allow us to be prepared if something bad happens to us tomorrow, even if the economy is doing very well.
We might break a foot, we might have a car accident, God forbid, we might lose our job for another reason, because of artificial intelligence, for whatever; it does n't have to be because of a recession, and this emergency fund will help us a lot. So that's the second thing we have to do. If we don't have an emergency fund, we are completely adrift in this market and the economy.
I will always tell them, by the way, that if they are going to have an emergency fund, they should keep it in a high-interest savings account. One of the best out there, at least from my point of view right now, is Sofi, which is giving up to 4.5% annual interest for the first 6 months. This is one of those welcome bonuses they're giving out, and I think it's fantastic.
Ensuring, in quotes, 4.5% for 6 months is super good. We normally keep in mind that they pay 3.8, so if you're interested, I'll also leave the link in the description, and you can earn up to $325 in bonuses if you go through me, depending on how much money you deposit. I'm taking something with me too.
I really appreciate those who use my link, but it's truly one of the best, and there are many other good accounts that Soft doesn't like. I have videos about all of this, but I think these are the two most important things we need to do right now: cut expenses and try to save and have that emergency fund, which would lead us to the last point, which is, look, I know we talk a lot about the stock market and investments here on this channel and on my second channel as well, and I really think we need to be very cautious with our investments.
If you currently have money invested in the stock market and your portfolio is comprised of more than 60-70% investments in growth companies, technology companies, especially those related to artificial intelligence, most of which have very high valuations, I urge you to review, look closely, and analyze the valuation and intrinsic value of these companies.
We've talked a lot about this topic on that second channel, because there are things that don't make much sense, right? And we need to see how we can rebalance the portfolio a bit so we don't get a huge shock if something really happens. I'm not saying to sell everything, I'm not saying to put all our money under the mattress, you'll never hear me say that because that's not a good thing, no, no, no, we can't guess what's going to happen, but with all these signs that we see over and over and over and over and over again , every month we receive two or three of these very, very bad news stories.
By the way, another thing I completely forgot to mention is that the price of wood has fallen 23% in one month, which is a terrible sign of economic weakness in terms of house construction and all that. Another one of these, look, but this one is a little smaller, but news about these things keeps coming out and I do n't think we can be putting our money in the expectation that everything will keep going up to the moon when there are many things underneath that don't make sense.
To make you think a little, look how high the price of gold is. How many times in history has gold been as high as the stock market? Very few. Because when gold rises it's because people are losing faith in global economies, and when the stock market rises it's because people are gaining confidence in that economy.
In other words, something just isn't right. Either the people who are buying gold don't know what they're doing, or the people who are buying on the stock market do n't know what they're doing. And when we look at the state of global economies, the issue of debt and all these things, I am much more inclined to think that the stock market makes no sense.
Personally, no. Once again, I'm not saying this to encourage you to sell your investments and get out of the stock market altogether. I have been investing all the time since 2024 when I started talking about the crises of the economy and so on, and I have made a lot of money in the market. I have outperformed the S&P 500 returns throughout this time.
They can go and see the evidence if they want. You know that I share my portfolio every month on the second channel, but it's like, look, what I want to say with this video at the end and where I want to close it is that there are many things that indicate that we are not okay. There are certain things, honestly, that indicate we are already in a recession and have been for a while, but maybe not.
There are also certain ones that indicate no. What I do believe all this indicates is that we need to be careful. It's not about being fearful, it's not about getting scared, it's about seeing how we can make the best financial decision based on the information we have and seeing how we can protect ourselves and our loved ones from something bad happening to us .
I know this might sound very cheesy and all, but I see my whole community as my own, and that's why I make these videos because this is the same thing I'm saying to my mom, my dad, my grandma, my uncle, everyone. It's the same thing I'm telling everyone because that's really what I'm seeing, and not everyone is paying attention to the stock market like I am.
Not everyone pays attention to what Jamie Diamond says or the job market news, and I believe I can offer value. So I hope this video has helped you, I hope it has taught you something. Um, as I mentioned in the description, I linked a bunch of things, I assure you, I think it can help you a lot, it really can, I see more and more people that they work for them, so I highly recommend that you try it.
Sofi's account, even if you don't have an interest-bearing account, is one of the best currently paying the most. And down below I'll also leave the link to that second channel in case you want to subscribe and you aren't subscribed yet. We talked a lot more about the stock market, investments, and all that kind of stuff, but that's what it is.
I would love to hear your opinion once again. As I mentioned, after talking about the labor market, I believe we are in a complicated area. That's my opinion; I'd like to know yours. Let me know in the comments below, along with any other questions or suggestions you may have for me. Hit the like button if you liked this video, if I taught you something.
Subscribe if you like this type of content and are not yet part of the community . And that's it, here's a video I made the other day talking about a topic that YouTube says you'll like. I hope this is the case. See you next time. I love them a lot. Bye.
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