저자: 미상 · 외국인
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워런 버핏·찰리 멍거 등의 투자 원칙을 소개하는 영상. 첫째 원칙은 손실 회피이며 주식은 사업의 지분이므로 사업 가치 대비 싸게 사야 한다고 강조. 주가 예측은 시간 낭비이고 시장은 10% 조정이 약 2년마다, 25% 하락이 약 6년마다 발생한다는 역사적 통계를 제시. 자신이 이해하는 역량 범위(competence circle) 안에서 투자하고, 소수의 우량 기업에 집중하는 것이 분산투자보다 안전하다고 주장.
다듬은 글
You don't need tons of IQ in this business. The first rule in investment is don't lose. And the second rule of investment is don't forget the first rule. And that's all the rules there are. Single single most important thing to me in the stock market for anyone is to know what you own. If you buy things for far below what they're worth and you buy a group of them, you basically don't lose money.
I'm amazed how many people own stocks, they they would not be able to tell you why they own them. They couldn't say in a minute or less why they own. Actually, if you really press them down, they'd say, "The reason I own this is the sucker is going up." I mean, that's the only reason. That's the only reason they own it.
And if you can't explain, I'm serious. You can't explain to a 10-year-old in 2 minutes or less why you own a stock, you shouldn't own it. This is not a business where you take polls. It's a business where you think. And Ben Graham would say that you're not right or wrong because a thousand people agree with you.
And you're not right or wrong because a thousand people disagree with you. You're right because your facts and your reasoning are right. First of all, they try and predict the stock market. That is a total waste of time. No one can predict the stock market. If you're making a good investment in a security, it shouldn't bother you if they close down the stock market for 5 years.
All the ticker tells me is the price. And I can look at the price occasionally to see whether the price is outlandishly cheap or outlandishly high. But but prices don't tell me anything about a business. business uh business figures themselves tell me something about a business, but the price of a stock doesn't tell me anything about a business.
I would rather value a stock or a business first and not even know the price so that I'm not influenced by the price in establishing my valuation and then look at the price later to see whether it's way out of line with what my value is. I'm trying to convince people there is a method. There are reasons for stocks that go up.
Uh CocaCola, this is very magic. It's a very magic number. Easy to remember. Coca-Cola is earning 30 times per share what they did 32 years ago. The stock has gone up 30fold. Bethlehem Steel is earning less than they did 30 years ago. The stock is half its price of 30 years ago. Stocks are not lottery tickets.
There's a company behind every stock. The company does well, the stock does well. It's not that complicated. People get too carried away. Defining your circle of competence is the most important aspect of investing. It's not how important how how large your circle is. You don't have to be an expert on everything, but knowing where the perimeter of that circle of what you know and what you don't know is and staying inside of it is all important.
Tom Watson senior who started IBM said in his book, he said, "I'm no genius." said, "But I'm smart in spots and I stay around those spots." And you know, that is the key. Uh so if I understand a few things and I stick in that arena, I'll do okay. And if I don't understand something, but I get all excited about it because my neighbors are talking about stocks are going up and everything, they start fooling around someplace else.
Eventually, I'll get green and I should. But you should study history. And history is the important thing you learn from. What you learn from history is the market goes down. It goes down a lot. The math is simple. There's been 93 years a century. This is easy to do. The market's had 50 declines of 10% or more.
So 50 declines in 93 years. About once every two years the market falls 10%. We call that a correction. That means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly. But we you know we call it a correction. And uh uh so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market falls 10%. Of those 50 declines, 15 have been 25% or more.
That's known as a bare market. We've had 15 declines in 93 years. So, every 6 years, the market's going to have a 25% decline. That's all you need to know. You need to know the market's going to go down sometime. If you're not ready for that, you shouldn't own stocks. And it's good when it happens. If you like a stock at 14, it goes to six.
That's great. You understand the company, you look at the balance sheet, and they're doing fine. you're hoping to get to 22 with it. 14 to 22 is terrific. 6 to 22 is exceptional. So, you take advantage of these declines. They're going to happen. No one knows when they're going to happen. It would be very people tell you about it after the fact that they predicted it, but they predicted it 53 times.
And uh so you can take advantage of the volatility in the market if you understand what you own. The only reason for making investment and laying out money now is to get more money later on. Right? If you buy Coca-Cola today, the company is selling for about 110 to$15 billion in the market. The question is, if you had 110 or 15 billion, you lay it out today to get what the Coca-Cola company is going to deliver to you over the next 2 or 300 years.
Discount rate doesn't make much difference after as you get further out, but and that is a question how much cash they're going to give you. It isn't a question of, you know, isn't a question about how many analysts are going to recommend it or what the volume in the stock is or what the chart looks like or anything.
It's a question of how much cash it's going to give you. That's the only reason. Is it true if you're buying a farm, it's true if you're buying an apartment house, any financial asset, oil in the ground, you're laying out cash now to get more cash back later on. And the question is is how much are you going to get?
When are you going to get it? And how sure are you? Walmart went public in October of 1970. 1970 he went public already had a great record. It had 15 years performance, great balance sheet. You could have waited 10 years saying you're a very conservative investor. You're not sure this Walmart can make it.
You want to check you're you see them operate in small towns. You're afraid they can only make it in seven or eight states. You want to wait till they go to more states. You keep waiting. You could have bought Walmart 10 years after they went public and made 35 times your money. If you bought it when they went public, you would have made 500 times your money.
But you could have waited 10 years after Walmart went public and made uh 30 over 30 times your money. You could wait three years after Microsoft went public and made 10 times your money. If you knew something about software, I know nothing about software. If you knew something about software, you would said, "These guys have it.
I don't care who's going to win compact, IBM. I know who's going to win Japanese computers. I know Microsoft. MS DOSs is the right thing. You could have bought Microsoft." Again, I'm repeating myself. Stocks are not a lottery ticket. There's a company behind every stock and you you can just watch it.
You have plenty of time. People are in an amazing rush to purchase a security. They're out of breath when they call up. You don't need to do this. Three wonderful businesses is is more than uh it's more than you need in this life to do very well. And uh the average the average person isn't going to run into that.
I mean, if you look at how the fortunes were built in this country, uh they weren't built out of a portfolio of 50 companies. They were they were built by someone who who uh identified with this with a wonderful business. Coca-Cola is a great example. A lot of fortunes have been built on that. And there aren't 50 Coca-Cas.
There aren't 20. If there were, it'd be fine. We could all go out and diversify like crazy among that group and and get results that would be equal to owning the really wonderful one. you're not going to find it. And uh and the truth is you don't need it. I mean, if if you have a really wonderful business is very well protected against against the vicissitudes of the economy over time and and and competition.
I mean, you know, we're talking about businesses that are resistant to effective competition and three of those will be better than a hundred average businesses. Uh uh and and they'll be safer incidentally. I mean they there is less risk in owning three easy to identify wonderful businesses there than there is in owning 50 uh well-known big businesses.
One thing you're trying to do is say of all these public companies out there, here's a company I really like, the fundamentals are terrific, their earnings are doing well, their competitors are doing poorly. I think this company is doing terrific and all of a sudden the stock might have gone from 40 to 30 because of this decline.
That would say, wow, here's a chance to buy it. So you're trying to say some companies might have been overpriced at 60. All they did was go to 50 and say big deal. So you're trying to find companies you liked anyway. Right now you liked them and now they've had a haircut. That's what you would do. I mean if I were getting out of school today and I had $10,000 to invest, I'd start with the A's.
I would start I would start going right through companies and I I probably would focus on smaller companies because I would be working with smaller sums and there's more chance that something is overlooked in that arena. Uh, and as Charlie has said earlier, it won't be like doing that in 19 uh 51 when you could leap through and find all kinds of things that that just leapt off the page at you.
But that's the only way to do it. I mean that you have to buy businesses and you or little pieces of businesses called stocks and you have to buy them at attractive prices and and you have to buy them in you have to buy into good businesses and that advice will be the same 100 years from now in terms of investing.
I was working with a tiny tiny tiny amount of money. And so I would pour through volumes of of of businesses and I would find one or two that I could put $10,000 into or $15,000 into that was just ridic were they were ridiculously shape.
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