저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 단기적으로는 라이드셰어링 중 우버보다 리프트(Lyft) 주식이 낫다는 견해. 주식 수급: 락업 해제에 따른 대규모 물량 출회 우려가 주가 약세의 원인. 기관투자자들은 물량 부담 때문에 대규모 포지션 구축이 어렵다고 설명. 주가 현황: 리프트는 IPO 가격 대비 약 27~28% 하락 상태. 이날 장중 약 1.25% 하락했으나 물량이 흡수되는 긍정적 신호로 해석. 대규모 내부자 매도 흐름은 아직 없다고 평가. 펀더멘털: 리프트는 국내 라이드셰어링 중심 기업으로, 침투율 확대 국면이 이제 시작됐다고 봄. 핵심 문제는 수익성이며, 향후 2~3년 내 수익성 개선이 관건. 우버 비교: 우버는 글로벌 사업모델과 우버이츠 등 사업 부문 합산 가치(SOTP) 측면에서 장기적으로 더 나은 스토리. 단기적으로는 리프트가 실적 측면에서 더 나은 기회. 시장 환경: 투자자들은 가격 모멘텀에 민감하며 1~2개월 내 수익을 낼 촉매를 원함. 개별 종목 차별화보다 섹터 단위로 움직이는 동조화 현상 존재. 촉매: 가격 전쟁(할인 경쟁) 완화가 긍정적 신호. 침투율 상승과 점유율 확대가 나타나면 두 업체 모두에 도움. 리스크: 시장 컨센서스는 여전히 부정적(glass half-empty). 상장 이후 전반적으로 실망스러운 흐름이 이어짐. 리프트·우버 외 특정 국내 종목 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
for more let's bring in Dan Ives the managing director of equity research at Wedbush Securities it's good to see you read the beer but you you heard the report from Mike and our conversation what do you think look at the tidal wave of shares that are coming out especially in the private side some of these early investors are gonna sell at any price I think so far the absorption right here is a positive in terms of what you've seen from the stock I think this is a white-knuckle period and ultimately how this thing trades over the coming weeks is gonna be kidding right now the street continues to be glass half-empty on lift as well as uber I mean the fact is it's still what 27 28 percent lower than the IPO price how much did the fears of this early lockup period expiring have to do with the weakness we've seen so far I can tell you from institutional investors it's hard for anyone to really build a significant position knowing this tidal wave of shares is coming out so I think it has definitely hurt shares but I think you've also seen what the like super that's been part of the issue too in terms and when them come out after live that's been a negative on the stock and right now ride-sharing has approved me space would definitely never slide crime to get back street credibility why then are you glass half-full because we look at the fundamentals and fundamentally if I look at lyft specifically the domestic ride-sharing play and what you saw this last quarter I think they gave a lot of reasons that that give the Bulls I think ultimately in our opinion you look out the next year or two I think this is the penetration story which is just starting what's a profitability story isn't it and the lack thereof that's the issue right now in terms of where profitability comes those two coming next two to three years that's why ride-sharing right now as opposed to some of the other ones that Mike highlighted continued to be ones where a lot of investors won't own it just giving profitability is not on the horizon so always look better than uber right now I think looks a better stock in uber as a domestic ride-sharing plan terms where you see that longer term of thing goober from the sum of the parts and where they could get an uber eats and the overall business model globally I think is a better story but in the near term earthing lyft as a stock could work better than Luber interesting you you don't think that investors look at these companies as basically the same they don't they don't sit there and look at the granularity of nature each individual story they're like ubers earnings were bad I have no idea when they're gonna be public and neither frankly today and and so why would I why would I file if they but they're in the same boat the same business even though there are differences between the businesses maybe people don't see that well no there's no that that's been an issue and I think right now it's a synchronized-swimming situation between the two companies you saw with strong numbers and ultimately uber would happen you know that was one took down with so I think right now it's approved me sector but I think if you look at where whiff could go there's a better opportunity in the near term in terms and numbers and I think they saw that on the quarter you ever take I think the biggest problem for any of not these particulars stocks but any stocks right now his investors there's no price momentum sensitive and they've got to perform on an active management way that you've got to give me a catalyst that tells me I'm gonna make money in the next month or two not in the next 12 but that's the problem that investors are having today in general and it's why certain areas of the market that are rockin continue to rock concern in our areas that have been having trouble continue have trouble nobody wants to step in the way of that price momentum in either direction is there a catalyst that could change Turner died on the Momentum's yeah I I didn't the cattle is fundamentally is you're starting to see the price war start to dissipate that's significant and I think ultimately in terms of ride-sharing if you start see penetration levels increase and you start seeing a share gain story starts to develop I mean that son that could help both players but no doubt right now just as you're saying it's a glass half empty in terms of the street and you've seen it since the IPOs he's been mini disaster you're just gonna add so just to put a fine point on it I mean the price action today down one and a quarter percent is that actually a positive and we were expecting this flood of shares to hit it's being absorbed well it doesn't look like there's this mass exodus of insiders from the stock is that a reason in itself this is the morning if we talk and you ask me what shares are today they're down 8 to 10 percent so I'd call this a small victory but no doubt so far they're losing the war in terms of what you've seen since the idea you
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