저자: AndySchectman · 외국인
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변동성지수(VIX)가 2월 이후 45%이상 상승하고 헤지펀드의 Mag7 노출이 22개월 저점, 내부자 매도 우위(6:1)로 리스크오프 전환이 진행 중이라 주장. 파월 연준의 금리인하 압박과 국채 차환 부담을 연결하며, 애틀랜타 연은 GDP 추정치 급락과 스태그플레이션 우려를 제기. 미국 중소형 포함 러셀3000 평균 종목이 52주 고점 대비 30% 하락했다고 언급. 은행 위기는 끝나지 않았다고 경고.
다듬은 글
things are disappearing off of the exchanges at the highest levels but I mean if you've been paying attention for just a little while people should have been expecting this volatility index last week you know uh was up for six straight days in a row and and since February the volatility index is up over 45% well I mean people need to be paying attention to that people need to be paying attention that last week I was screaming that the hedge funds that their participation in the mag 7 was down to a 22-month low people need to be paying attention that you know institutional Capital has been rotating from risk on to risk off look at all the Insiders that they have been a six to1 selling to buying uh look at the fact that I mean this is actually kind of crazy that on on February 20th Jamie Diamond sold 234 Million worth of JP Morgan stock the most he's ever sold uh two days later on the 22nd Warren Buffett announced that he had 3 34 billion in cash and of that 279 billion in us treasuries more than way more than the Federal Reserve holds and then 12 Days Later the NASDAQ 100 crashed 11% could that really be a coincidence do you think that you know that they didn't know that this was coming and you know part of me feels that this is planned that this is what they want this is what Trump wants I know that sounds counterintuitive but he wants people to emulate what Warren is doing Warren is is selling stocks and buying treasuries massive massive massive massive amounts of treasuries which lowers the 10year yield um because we have just in the next six month 7 trillion in treasuries that are coming due that we have to refinance and if we refinance them at higher interest rates it's very painful so the only way to get the rates lowered would be to in in um incentivize people to move from risk on to risk off sell stocks and move to us treasuries which will then lower the 10 yeld year and then yield and then he can go to the Jerome Powell and say you got to lower the federal funds rate to drive the short-term rates down because the econom is in trouble that's the only way we're able to you know mitigate the pain in in the um refinancing of our debt but I can't remember a time where we've seen such a rapid shift sh from risk on to risk off in November you know with with the Trump Euphoria was massive risk on everyone was buying mag s and and Bitcoin and uh the stocks within the the mag seven and you know his Hope Springs Eternal but to give you an idea people are paying attention the Russell 3000 which encamp encompasses large caps small caps and mid camps if you take the the the average stock of the Russell 3000 is down 30% from its its 52- we high that the Russell 3000 is is a sampling of the economy right it's not the the big Dow stocks it's it's it's six times the the measurement of the S&P and if you look at the waiting in the S&P it's ridiculous you got seven or eight stocks that comprise I don't know 30 40 50% of the waiting of the 500 so when you talk about the Russell 3000 it's a much broader swath sampling of the economy they're all down 30% from their Peak so the warning signs have been here it's just that our media if they're not watching you and me and others like us they're they're missing all of this because they're you know it's it's it's to the moon and and missing what the Insiders are doing and the Insiders the smart money for for quite some time now since the end of February anyway the mid mid end February have all been you know e exiting stage left quietly and the fact that this isn't Center you know center cut on the newspaper and and front page on on any Financial um news station well that's what you get with a media that doesn't do anything but create divisiveness and spew nothing but lies and have been for quite some time but if you've been paying attention um this is this to me has been expected and I think this is what Trump wants he gave an interview with Maria baloma and he's like yeah you know he he avoided the tough question about recession and and even though you look and every indicator is is signaling recession the Sam rule the Sam rule the the big money into um huge influx into money markets over 7 trillion that's record and that's always a sign of of recession as the S rules predicted the last nine recessions in a row has to do with with unemployment levels uh um rising or employment levels falling uh I think it's 50 basis points below the last I forgot the last month or the last the last few months uh you have the reinversion of the yield curve all of the metrics by which recessions are are measured are all screaming um and then you know you have the Atlanta fed who just came out two weeks ago or less that was just um calling for a a two plus percent uh GDP growth for the year they're now 4% less at negative one a.
half% they're calling in just a matter of days they went from 2% plus 2 and a half% plus projection for the year to now negative 1.7 or eight so they're saying we are Contracting heading into a recession and so you know to me what we have is the the beginnings of stagflation which is the worst of both outcomes that's a that is a inflationary environment little or no economic growth higher inflation higher unemployment slowing economy uh and if people are scared as that fear takes over from risk on to risk off and we've seen the this massive shift not just from the um the M andp investors but the hedge funds have left the mag 7 the lowest exposure and two years to it that's why you're seeing them getting clobbered um they want everyone to move into the 10-year treasury to lower the rates to make refinancing easier and to incentivize Powell to lower rates as well so yeah uh there's more of this to come we haven't experienced material correction in quite some time every time it does they come in and they you know they pour more more gas on the fire and at some point these inequities have to be paid for and that's kind of what maybe Trump understands that and realizes that I for one would be very cautious right now uh in this Marketplace that everyone's up to their ass in debt and when you suppress interest rates for three decades you you incentivize debt and well hey I mean I can buy that that you know the the the nicer car than I wanted to cuz I can get 60 months 0% interest and and and you know I can we can spend an extra 350,000 on that house because well rates are so low that we can do that that's what they have been for a long time not at currently but that's what they were for a long time at zero bound federal funds rate and low mortgage rates and and and so you've incentivized all this debt and that works while you have your job you lose your job you're dead or or the economy slows down and they start making layoffs how do you service that debt that's why they're so afraid of a recession recessions are actually good things and we've been told that they're bad recessions are like a brush fire right they they're they're never fun and and bad things happen people die or or animals die and trees die but you come back a couple years later and the forest is stronger than it's ever been that's Mother Nature's Way of cleaning out the excess and you know every time we've headed into any type of a Slowdown they've come in and pumped more money into the system and lowered rates which just made things worse ultimately and and so one of these days yeah this will be something um that has to to fully Express itself is this beginning of it don't know but yeah they they certainly don't want a recession because it just means it's that much harder they'd much rather have inflation so that the debt becomes easier to handle water down money you know recession Andor depression where things slow down that the debt just collapsed is upon itself and this whole thing is like a balloon that's been blown Higher and Higher and Higher and Higher and you poke a little hole in it and they're still trying to blow air into it to keep it from going but heaven forbid it starts to deflate the whole thing collapses upon itself and that's what they're afraid of well there was that the plasy Savings Bank in Illinois that failed earlier this year said it was fraud related um we haven't seen any that's been the first here in 2025 um but you know the one in Lindsay was bailed in which is a scary thing there's over 60 plus Banks I believe on the um on the uh troubled Bank list that more or less says if things don't change they'll collapse I think we have definitely not heard the end of a bank consolidation bank failures um I I think keeping more than the FDIC limited any bank is as dumb as a mud wall and I say that with respect to those people who haven't really understood what a bank bailin is but ask the folks in Lindsay Oklahoma we're half of their uninsured deposits are gone if that means you have a million dollars in a bank in Lindsay Oklahoma 250 is insured that leaves 750 uninsured well they were given half and they're not even supposed to get that of the uninsured deposits because they only had seven million in uninsured deposit it's not the billions that silicone and signature had including Oprah Winfrey's money and the tech startup money but that means of that 750 they got 375 which means six and a quarter they got six and a quarter back of a million that other 375 might as well kiss it buy you're never going to see it again and if you do they have up to four years to pay you in the form of bank stock of the new stock uh the new bank um and that's only if the assets U match the liabilities for the reason they went out well if you go bankrupt typically your assets are are less than your liabilities so in essence it's gone now the law says that anything over the 250 Insurance limit is gone so you know they can consider themselves lucky but no I I think that the banking problems have not gone and they're so systemic to one another you see a a good-sized Regional Bank collapse and bailed in it would create a run on the banks overnight so you know it's no longer Doom and Gloom and and supposition it's happened it's happened very quietly and the media does as usual horeshit job of telling us about Bank of Lindsay Oklahoma you ask any of your friends out there no one's heard of it but try and find it it's even hard to find go to the FDIC website you'll find it and then Google Lindsay Oklahoma bank failure and you find a little article from a fox Regional Fox News Channel that talks about it but it wasn't Center Stage like silicone and signature were who were illegally bailed out so everyone thinks yeah the banks get bailed out no worry everyone got their money back well you know and and wait till a big Bank fails in a very you know deep recession uh where loans aren't being paid back and and um you know that's another reason he probably wants rates to go down because if rates continue to move higher on the 10 year you're putting greater and greater and greater strain on these Banks who who once again went back into the water and making the same mistakes again buying fixed income treasuries figuring that they can't go any higher right well they have been so I guess we'll see but no I I'm not convinced that the banking problems are behind us not even a little bit actually
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