저자: Mente de Holder · 외국인
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so you're trying to say some companies might have been overpriced at 60 and all they did was go to 50 and say big deal so you're trying to find companies you liked anyway right now you liked them and now they've had a haircut that's what you would do you're not not just like the one from overpriced the fairly priced something was fairly placed at the start of this exercise and then had a very you know a five for four sale you know which is highly regarded as one of wall street's legendary money managers he ran fidelity's magellan fund from 77 to 90.
at the end of his 13-year helm it was up over 2700 percent and had become the world's largest mutual fund he remains on the board of trustees at the fidelity group and is vice chairman of fidelity management and research his new cd-rom is called the stock shop with peter lynch and its strategies to invest in the stock market with confidence all the profits for this go to charity i think he joins me now to talk about the remarkable record volume day on wall street and other matters of investing and i am very pleased to have him back at this table welcome back hey charlie good to see you glad to be here explain to me what's going on well we had a huge run i mean the market was 4 000 just you know two and a half years ago yeah and it ran up to 8 300 in august and you know like any big rally sometimes it backs off i mean it's healthy in fact i mean i'd rather gone down a thousand points than gone to twelve thousand if you look at japan japan went from five thousand to fifteen thousand on their dao it was fairly priced at 15 000 on earnings and everything else then it went to 40 000 and that caused seven years of inflated real estate people overspending and basically they've been a recession for five or six years because their market went up too high i mean the market goes up too high i mean if the market goes too high you're discounting earnings seven eight ten years out because everything is overpriced yeah and that doesn't help anything the market since world war ii has sold between 10 times earnings and 20 times earnings if you look at the dow jones or the s p fund if you add up all the companies and take the earnings you say there's a relationship and it follows mcdonald's earnings have been terrific the last 30 years and the stock's been direct there's a direct relationship so the earnings of the s p 500 have been between this range of 10 and 20.
we were just about to go over the 20 which is the high end of the pe range there wasn't a lot of pe of 20 is too is is it the top of how high it should ever be right it's been over there only a few times ever over 20 and that's when usually inflation's about zero in the early 60s when inflation was about zero we're a little bit over 20.
now we have a very low inflation rate so if you usually have subtracted inflation from 20 you've had the p of the market that's been a pretty good ratio when inflation was 12 percent you remember in the early 80s with eight or nine p in the market so dr lynch says all of this has been good for us well it's like i'm telling you would not have been helpful it's like a purgatory i never thought i'd ever wish for the market to not go up dramatically but let's just let's argue the mark went to 16 000 tomorrow yeah basically there's earnings behind companies okay but i'm not arguing that i know that's true and they're very crazy and stock market price ought to be dictated by earnings earnings performance and future earnings potential that's right that's right i got that even i got that right now let's just take this for me sure uh was the decline yesterday in a sense it let off some of this overvaluation the market was even overvalued at where it was right and by letting it off right then we got back to what was reasonable well you know i would say fairly priced maybe for the larger companies they're now okay there might be some small companies we've had three thousand companies come public the last four years that's two of business day some of those companies have gone down dramatically and that sort of a research zone that average people in the stock shop that's we can find some people know a lot about this ten thousand public companies a lot of them are very attractive no one's following and there's lots of people following ibm companies that nobody else followed right i'd like to go to see companies with unions or companies in trouble or companies that no one's hotels that had nice beds but you have to look at 20 to find one it's just you know go to the mall and find the stock i mean you have to say my god this sounds like it's good then you have to do some steps you have to do an organized method people are careful when they buy a toaster careful they're careful they buy it they do they do some research but they don't do it with stock they call it the broker they see somebody at lunch and they said man i got this hot stock and you run right out and you spend five thousand dollars small investors yeah right and it's a and it's like a casino yeah so it's like a casino you get the same results as if there's more paperwork but just stay with me in terms of people who are bedazzled by what's happened right if you look at yesterday and you look at today right nothing has happened in the fundamentals of economics of any company right right but their stock may have gone down well 10 yesterday and up five today one modest point though i mean every time you get you have to get a memories that gets very cold in the winter in some parts of the country you get a memory that winter's coming something did really happen in southeast asia i mean those are different those are economies of what happened in this market i think so that was the reminder saying by the way you know profits can go down i mean there's a downside but why was that the cause i mean did what's happening in southeast asia affect the earnings potential of all these companies you're talking about it did because they can't sell their products no because those economies been growing double-digit and all of a sudden now they're going because of bank problems because they're over financed they're under leverage i mean they're going to have they're going to have to draw on their belts those parts and then people said whoa maybe that'll become it'll have china is now the fourth largest economy in the world maybe china can go in recession this sort of woke people it was like a wake-up call saying whoa maybe there's a chance or anything going on i mean this is not a big deal for the united states when mexico went down much more important what's it going mexico much more from the united states than thailand is or the philippines or their economy is very important to us they're a big consumer very important they're a neighbor a lot of people there that's a very important when that went down that affected latin america was more important so the recession of 1990 but it sort of reminded people they'd say wait a second there is a downside we have we've had nine recessions since world war ii we'll have other ones tell me what took place overnight between yesterday at the close of market and today at the beginning mark what were the guys that you used to work with saying to each other at fidelity and what were the people you know saying for example ibm made a decision to buy back their stock right and that presented some kind of push on the market and their stock went up six points well one thing you're trying to say of all these public companies out there here's the company i really like the fundamentals are terrific their earnings are doing well the competitors are doing poorly i think this company's doing terrific and all of a sudden the stock might have gone from 40 to 30 because of this decline that would say wow here's a chance to buy it if you had been managing the magellan fund this morning you would have been buying like crazy i would have been researching like crazy i've been saying which companies are the same story is there anything really happening this is a non-event for them they're still doing well even if we have a recession there's nothing to do with them and that's the kind of kinds i'm trying to buy so you have to say yourself if i'm right how much am i going to make if i'm wrong how much i'm going to lose that's the risk reward ratio in stock shop we talk about if i'm right i hope i'm going to double trip my money if i'm wrong may i lose 30 40 percent that's a favorable ratio you say if i'm right the stock's not going to go up it's already though this morning you get up and you go in and you look at at those companies that fit you that you know something about you have to have an edge let's say the cement industry goes from crummy to semi-crummy to fairly good the stocks are going north you're going to make money that's the industry you know what if you know the publishing industry you're you some people have you have an edge you work i mean when if you last 30 years you worked in the restaurant years you would have seen taco bell you would have seen some barrels you would have seen pizza hut you've seen chili's you've seen these companies doing very well you should have bought those instead of trying to buy biotechnology stuff you know nothing about charlie all you need is a few good stocks this is your song this has been your song for a long time but only buy what you know but people waking up in the morning to say there's 5 000 companies out there which one should i buy the average person ought to be able to follow four or five companies there would be a lecture on them they understand the companies and this forces you i'm telling you you can do both you ought to you could be invested mutual funds and occasionally you should be able to find a stock that's gonna make a difference in your life if it's an industry you know something about industry or local company you know so that way you get a lot of information don't throw it away all right before you go so what you buy this thing and is it going to charity or not well all my profits i mean hold nifflin is the person marketing this and they're they're keeping some profits everything i've done all my books and on this my wife and i are doing everything to cherish is this because you made a bunch of money and so therefore what you do now you want to be that's part of it but also even if i hadn't made a much money i'd like to see people do a better job so what you're saying to people today about the future of the market over the near term is what what's your feeling we can have to buy business we can take a coin out and flip it i have no idea what the next thousand points gonna do the next six thousand points can be up the next fourteen thousand points will be up the next twenty thousand points will be up but you don't know what the next thousand is gonna be down could be up nobody does corporate profits will be a lot higher 10 years from now it'll be a lot higher 20 years from now that's what you could rely on microsoft didn't exist 20 years ago staples didn't exist 20 years federal express didn't exist 20 years ago new companies will come along new companies have come along that's what makes this country work you got to keep your eyes open okay is the game over in asia no god no you can't you know some of these countries have a 56 percent savings rate they have a high literacy rate the game's not over you know they're gonna they're gonna have to have they lost something yeah well they're going to have to although some of their lending they get carried away there's two i mean they're going to have to you know step back figure it out and go ahead it's certainly not over nation no way so emerging markets is still a big deal right big deal what about all the criticism of derivatives and the impact they have had that's a little complicated for me all i know is i mean i don't know about you for you it's way over my head i've never bought an option in my life i never bought your i time's on your side when you're on stock you know i don't know about putting you know three percent down and buying a future in a strap and a straddle that's where my head can't can't do that right that's something else all right so you're optimistic about the future of the american economy earnings potential for most well-run companies will do all right but people have to understand we've had nine recessions since world war ii we'll have other but we're not in one now but we may have one in the future and don't get worried about it we'll have one sometime it'll happen and no one will tell you when it's gonna happen it's what won't the fundamentals tell you no you'll find out after the fact you'll all of a sudden you'll notice order's slowing prices get more competitive then earnings are down i mean usually you find that affect no one declares everybody's saying we're going to have recession for five years it just hasn't happened it's great to see you i hope you'll come back anytime peter excellent thank you you
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