저자: ReyJay · 외국인
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테슬라 실적 발표를 앞두고 기술적 지표(4시간봉 MACD 데드크로스 임박, RSI 하락 다이버전스)와 공매도 증가, 매크로 둔화 우려를 근거로 단기 조정을 예상. 테슬라 280달러 풋 매수 증가 관찰. S&P500은 450달러대, QQQ는 383달러 부근까지 조정 가능성 언급. 장기적으로는 테슬라에 여전히 강세 입장이며 실적 후 하락은 매수 기회로 봄. 투자 조언 아님을 고지.
다듬은 글
what's good so family it's Ray J back with another video I just want to break down what's going on Tesla stock what you should be watching for moving forward I'm also going to talk about the overall marketing provide you guys with a very important warning I have it for investors out there because I'm anticipating a pullback to come very soon I want to talk about what's happening Tesla stock approaching earnings now earnings May go for Tesla in my opinion but before I break anything down but all of this information before I get into any more details let me just mention a couple of things firstly I am not a financial planner so take none of this as Financial advice and also if you guys can please check out the Weeble link which is down below and in the description if it's not available all right so Tesla is up 0.29 as of right now and lo and behold Tesla came very close to our 300 Target hitting 299.29 came super super close and we did predict that it would see a very very nice move to the upside and we got the move we were predicting both in the pre-market today and also for my predictions for the last couple of weeks where I was calling Tesla getting very close to 300 now that's where Tesla went to my actual Target was 295 to 300 around there we went all the way up to about this 300 area especially since we broke 295 it was holding up very nicely we've got a nice rejection candle after that sounds trying to slow down as we're approaching the final hours of the trading day but the question is how is the market moving how is Tesla going to move amidst all of this what do I think is going to happen after earnings just as a reminder Apple had this news that came out that caused it to pop with the market after it's going to be developing its own chat GPT or its own version of it this news just came out today that's when the market ended up popping intraday but after that the market still began to slow down which is once again showing some signs of exhaustion and I think the market is due for a very healthy pullback now it's not just based off what I'm saying in general it's also based off the technicals that are developing right now I want to remind everyone that we have Tesla Netflix United and IBM all reporting earnings for today and this is going to be very important for the entire Market especially Tesla Tesla is going to be the most important one moving forward and I think it's not going to be what a lot of people are expecting now I think Tesla's going to do it very well when it comes to their EPs and revenue I think they're going to be meeting or beating expectations as they typically do but there's a cost for them to have reached that success and my gut is telling me it may not be what a lot of people are expecting or wanting now unfortunately looking at how things have developed one thing you have to remember from the previous earnings report was Elon Musk and the entire Tesla team was warning us that margins could get tighter and also we could be seeing a big slowdown in demand because of the rate hikes now I don't think that's going to happen as badly for Tesla because once again Tesla has these price Cuts going on they have a very important brand and they're very likely going to be continuing to sell lots of cars but the issue I do see is to what degree will they have to cut prices to maintain these high amounts of sales well they have to keep doing it and I think Tesla's going to give us important answers about this however I have a feeling okay this is just my opinion that margins may not be very good and we're going to see the media scream about it and they're going to be once again finding a way to just look down at Tesla because all of a sudden today we saw a lot of individuals and institutions or whoever it was buying loads and loads of the 280 dollar put strike for Tesla that's a very popular right now and I'm wondering why are they you know buying puts on says the wire shorts piling in could they know something could they be trying to get tested down we're gonna have to wait and see if we're today especially going into tomorrow but let me just note that I'm not a fortune teller I don't know what's going to happen okay it is very much possible for Tesla to Gap up and like beat on everything have better marches than expected and go all the way up to 320 a share 315 to 320 is very possible it could do that or it could also gap down into the 280s and start dropping to the very low 280 level if not lower that's also just as possible okay so I'm always open-minded to any direction okay always be prepared for that but what do I predict is going to happen what is my honest opinion please don't trade based off what I'm saying my prediction is based off these technicals right now because from a technical standpoint it still looks like it's getting exhausted and may start to slow down and also because of what I just said about the margins and Etc I think the odds favorite downside and I think Tesla's going to start dropping going into tomorrow now why am I saying this well there are many reasons like I said the first reason would be the media is going to use its power to try to bash Tesla I have a feeling they're going to try that because Tesla has very very high expectations we're expecting all these things from Tesla here and there and just the cats always meets all these unrealistic expectations additionally as shorts are piling into the stock when shorts Pile in they love to cause Tesla to drop in some way and they're gonna look for those specific little itty-gritty details which they could use against Tesla I also want to remind you guys that Elon Musk the last time the guy spoke he was talking about how the US is entering a recession and we're going to be seeing declines very soon you mentioned that their macroeconomic factors that are not Tesla's fault and they could end up hindering its ability to get more sales they mentioned that there could be this big difference between deliveries and production going into like the later quarters of this year and if they maintain that composure that could slow the share price down now am I promising all this will happen no no promises right I'm just saying based off what was said before and what's very likely however I think they're also going to talk about the longer term and the Cyber truck coming out soon and the long term is still very very bright but when it comes to any news about the Cyber truck the news already came out that the Cyber truck you know the first means of production for it already came out so it's not really new news at this point and I think that from a technical standpoint on top of everything I just said fundamentally we're about to get a bearish cross on the PPO on the macd and on top of that when you zoom out on the four hour time frame Tesla has this bearish Divergence on the RSI now I can pull up a lot of other indicators I just want to keep this as simple as possible so anyone could see it no matter what kind of like device you're using even if you're using a phone you should be able to see it the RSI right here okay it was very high the RSI has been downtrending technically making these lower highs overall in a trend like that the macd did the same thing and we're about to get a bearish cross on the four hour time frame notice how we got the bearish cross here and we saw this thing sink down about twenty dollars uh more than twenty dollars actually right here we've got a bearish cross and sank pretty low uh right here there's another bearish cross that's the one from like the 280s all the way down to the 260s dropped another 20 plus dollars and we're very close to getting another bearish cross so technicals are suggesting right here that if Tesla keeps dropping if it breaks below our support the low of the day especially it could come all the way back to the 280s very soon that's what this technical structure is looking like in my opinion we also have a very very big rejection candle off this 299 area it came very close start 300 Target it was very awesome to witness but now it's looking a lot weaker so I hate to say this guys but I have to be honest with everyone I must tell the truth I do the best I can to tell the truth when I make predictions about Tesla I tell the truth about what I'm predicting I don't try to hide anything I try to be as blunt and honest as possible so upside is possible for Tesla so is downside I'm open to anything okay but I'm saying that it's a little bit more likely that we're going to see downside for Tesla looking at technicals and based off the fundamentals and based off how the media is going to react to earnings in my opinion so that's my view of Tesla I think it's a little more likely it's going to start cooling off a bit I wanted to make that as clear as possible for everyone so I hope you guys could understand that and it's going to be completely fine if Tesla dips that's another buying opportunity because for the long term I see this stock going to the thousands and thousands of dollars to share I'm still very bullish I'm simply giving you guys my opinion and what I think is very likely for spy I think it's going to be syncing and I think my gut's telling me Tesla's going to lead the way down I think spy is going to get a pullback all the way down to the 450s very very soon uh the very low 450s I mean in 450 flat could be tested over the next couple of trading days why do I say this because like Tesla has a bearish Divergence on the four hour time frame on the 30 minutes time frame there's a bearish time for just on the RSI and once again I'm just using a couple of indicators trying to keep this as simple as possible and we had a doji on in the four hour that developed after getting a big rejection candle and a bearish crossover on the PPI uh PPO sorry about that guys the PPO on the 30 minutes time frame so it's all looking bearish it's looking like it's weakening as time goes on and we could see these things from sinking to the low 450s very soon which I believe it's going to do for the QQQ it's the same thing with nice rejection candle off this 370 uh sorry 388 area so all the way up here and we're gonna likely see this continue to downtrend into like the lower 380 dollar area so like 383 could be tested if not lower levels and I think 380 could be tested again very soon as well I think this may lead the way down it's already getting a bearish cross on the four hour uh PPO and it's continuing to look more bearish looking like it's weakening we also have this bearish Divergence that developed I think the Market's going to cool down a bit and I think that Tesla may be the one or one of the stocks leading the way down now I still love Tesla I'm still you know a fan of the company I believe in the vision of the company I'm very bullish for the company longer term do not interpret this as me banishing the company and saying to get out of Tesla I'm not saying then I'm holding my shares and if it drops more I'll just dollar cost average in a lot more but I just want to make it clear that I'm anticipating down some based off technicals and based off the fundamentals and how I believe earnings is going to go we're going to find out more about their operating expenses and how it's going to look but my gut tells me uh Wall Street or whoever else is involved is going to try to bash Tesla and they're going to try to bring this thing down after we're seeing lots of shorts piling in all right no guarantees though I'm always open-minded to the possibility possibility of this thing flying to like 320 but I just want to make it clear that this is what I'm seeing and this is what I think is more likely for the stock because I'm an honest person that loves to give you guys my opinion if it is helpful for every single one of you okay so thank you for listening have an absolutely spectacular rest of the day get ready for earnings I won't be back for another video until after earnings so it may be late at night I'm gonna try to get it out there and try to get as much of it done as possible and until then I will see you guys very soon please keep what I said in mind and manage risks approaching the end date I say this because as Tesla's slowing down you know if you had calls or something you could secure profits if you want it's your choice but holding overnight is risky it could go either way like I said before in my previous videos but I am leaning a little bit more bearish going into like the tomorrow and beyond for Tesla in my opinion okay so non-financial advice no promises I just want to make that clear and I want to be honest thank you have a good one everyone tells us to the moon and peace out
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