저자: ReyJay · 외국인
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CPI가 예상 부합·하회로 나왔으나 이미 반영되어 시장이 하락 전환, 조작 가능성 언급. Tesla 로보택시 행사가 8월에서 10월로 연기된 보도로 주가 8% 하락, 거래량 급증과 기술적 약세로 231 지지 테스트 전망. 내일 PPI와 대형 은행 실적이 변수. S&P500·ES는 555 지지 이탈 시 하락, NVDA·비트코인·QQQ 등도 약세 쪽 기술적 시나리오 제시. 장기적으로는 테슬라 낙관.
다듬은 글
what is good Tesa family it's Ray J back with another video and in this one I want to break down what's happening with cesla spying video the QQQ and a couple of other tickers when breakdown tomorrow it's going to be another very important day as we have big Bank earnings coming up not to mention PPI and also some big news about Tesla it's causing the share price to drop quite a bit but before I begin dou this information before I talk about the big news involving Tesla and some other important factors let me just mention a couple of things I am firstly not a financial planner so Mumu link which is down below and in the description if you s from Mumu deposit $100 you guaranteed five free stocks you deposit $1,000 you guaranteed 15 free stocks in total not to mention Free level two data with Z of commission trading this offer ends very soon in just about 3 weeks from now so check it out before they run out anyways for Tesla we saw something very very interesting so the whole Market kind of Pumped and dump today and then Tesla saw an even bigger move to the downside because we got some bearish news what happened we got CPI data everything was aligned with the expectations if not better the market pumped a little bit in the morning because of the fact that this was good data and such but remember this data was also priced in and the pump was only there to grab liquidity because that's where these institutions started to short the markets and then the market dumped Tesla was dumping a bit coming back down to the 260s and then Tesla started to fall even more aggressively after we got some bearish news let me talk about the news about Tesla first before I break down some important data for tomorrow so please remember guys that Tesla Shares are down 8% after the report at the r taxing unveiling was delayed this came out and I gave you guys a more in-depth video about this uh you know a couple of hours ago I'm not going to go into the full details I just want to mention that musk initially said that the robot tax event is going to be on August 8th Tesla was very committed to this but now Bloomberg is saying that the event has been pushed to October let me just note that mainstream media is screaming about this but I haven't seen this being confirmed by Elon Musk on his Twitter page or even Elon Musk himself I I've been looking through his Twitter I haven't really seen musk say anything about this and then also I haven't heard Tesla actually confirm this according to CNBC but mainstream news articles especially Bloomberg are saying that this is what's going on they claim that they have reports from Tesla's important team members who are involved in all of this and they're saying that uh to basically improve the prototypes of the robo taxi these uh you know employees need a little bit more time the engineers need more time as well and the event has been pushed until October that's what Bloomberg reported Dan IES said that there's going to be a negative reaction for the share price initially but he's still very bullish long term he's still bullish overall at least as we approach the end of the year I feel the same way as well uh but I just want to notes that all these mainstream sources all over the place whether it's electric Bloomberg CNBC they're all screaming the same thing Tesla has reportedly delayed the robotaxi events to October it was supposed to be August now it's October this is a little bit more negative news now am I scared about this am I worried not necessarily guys Tesla is going to dip and that's completely fine it was due to sell off anyways and then on top of this Wall Street found a reason to short Tesla to Oblivion let them short Tesla back down it's going to give us another good buying opportunity I am not worried whatsoever however despite that Tesla has a lot of very very bearish momentum building because volume is doubling on Tesla the volume is going up we see momentum building up and we've lost some key support so it looks very bearish from a technical standpoint and the chart is favoring more downset from the way things are looking now uh don't forget the daily is also looking quite bearish on if you look at this uh the daily is looking like it wants to continue to fall we have a very very bearish looking daily Candlestick so lots of confluences of bearish looking indicators for Tesla that suggest more downside is coming now there's going to be another Factor affecting the markets I'm going to talk about that factor now before I break down spy and all of the others and that's going to be some more data so I want to talk about the overall Market's Data before I break down these charts I want to remind everyone that CPI came out and as a reminder all the data came in better than expected this is why the market kind of Pumped initially to end up dumping once there's a saying that goes by the rumor s the news when some news is supposed to be coming out uh stocks kind of like pump approaching the news and then once news actually comes out they end up dumping because the news is already priced in that's what happened with CPI today this was manipulation and they used this to short the market for tomorrow we have PPI data coming out I just want to notes that because we got one of the best CPI reports we've seen in a while at least month over month we got the lowest reading right over here the first negative reading and we also got the data that's showing that CP on a big downtrend and once again guys I don't fully trust this data of course I'm not saying that this sta is objectively the truth I'm just saying that this is what the data is being reported as and we have to accept this data we have to use it when it comes to our trades and such so that's the reason why I try to be unbiased when talking about it but the data is showing that core CPI and CPR are dipping quite a bit and the the Market's liking this the market was liking this yesterday that's why it pumps the way it did so right now the market thinks there's an 80% chance to Fed Cuts in September this will also be affected by PPI tomorrow before the Market opens we have PPI data coming out we're expecting numbers to actually show some uh decreases overall we'll see how the number ends up looking uh ppi is also very important because it's wholesale inflation it's like another version of CPI from the wholesale producer side and it's going to affect not only future CPI data but also the fed's policymaking that's the most important thing about PPI so we're going to be watching this an hour before Market open not to mention the Michigan consumer sentiment data at 10:00 a.m.
eastern standard time 30 minutes after open so look for some volatility especially before the Market opens now in my opinion this data is going to most likely be decent because all the last ppis were decent not to mention CPI was decent so there's a high probability it's going to be decent data however we have something else that's going to affect the market which is why it's a big day earnings season is kicking off guys we have earnings season starting tomorrow is Friday before the Market opens we have JP Moran Shas Wells Fargo City Group the big Bank earnings are starting this is going to have a big effect on the finance sector of the stock market what is so significant about this let me just make it clear the banks are the lenders for these businesses if the banks fall the you know a lot of businesses are going to crumble with them that's the reason why you have to watch the static carefully if the banks do really well tomorrow the market could get a bounce and surprise everyone if not we could be looking for a big rug pull so we'll just have to see how things look I'll talk about the charts for the market in just a minute Tesla's tumbling it's down over 8% but just know it's not just down that much but also because of the volume volume is at 220 Mill ion okay that's a double in Tesla's volume almost and that's actually very significant because we're seeing volume coming in we're seeing a lot of sellers being aggressive and Wall Street found a reason to short Tesla all the way down that's why we saw short volume kind of going up right over here and then on top of this Mor Stanley still gave Tesla an overweight rating they still believe it's going to up from the market overall which I still think it will but I think it needs a little bit more time now the price PR ratio is rejecting because now Tesla showing some weakness so we were very strong for the last few weeks now we're showing a little bit of more weakness than before because of the fact that test is underperforming and because we got a rug pull because of some bad news for seasonality we tend to be green about 49% of the time on Fridays we tend to see more volatility at around 11 o'clock a.m.
and also during the second to last hour of the day that's when we saw a lot of volatility too and then besides that there's not really a whole lot else coming out besides the same things we're seeing over and over again so that's very very important news for Tesla now without further Ado let's focus just on the charts and kind of ignore all the external things what on Earth is going on with the market so right now it's Tesla okay I'm going to make something very clear I can't promise anything about the data that's why some of my words will be a little bit ambiguous but I can tell you this from a technical standpoint Tesla is looking bearish it looks very bearish high volume selling is going on I think we're going to be testing our 50 EMA on the 4our time frame which aligns to 231 so I think we're going to be dipping even lower to 231 going into tomorrow as the most likely possibility if we bounce off this we could try to rebound back up to the 245 area if we do get a bounce off that but if we fail if we lose 2 31 Tesla is going all the way down here let me show you where I think it's going to go the daily 20 EMA this 219 area we also have a gap to fill so that as to our bearish thesis this looks very bearish on The Daily so I think what's going to happen to Tesla is we kind of dip lower we had 231 if we that fails we're going to drop even more to about 219 so I am favoring a little bit more downside is a stronger possibility will the big Bank earnings affect us to some extent they definitely could affect us so we'll see if that leads to Tesla hitting 231 and then bouncing or if we end up losing that and just continue to fall to 219 we'll be watching to see if that ends up being the case for Tesla uh don't forget PPI will also affect us we'll see if this is a trap or not but nonetheless I see a little bit more downside coming to Tesla 231 should be tested soon and we'll see if we get a bounce or not that's looking a lot more favorable for specific levels okay from where we are right now we have 235 as our support if that fails us then 231 is coming and we have resistance at 238 I favor downside a little bit more at least for test the stock how about spy and Es well these are actually a little bit more different and the reason for that is because we're testing our 20 EMA on spy on the 20 uh 20 EMA on the 4our time frame we have 55 5.9 as support if we lose this after we get the big Bank earnings after PPI data we're going to be looking for a rug pull all the way down to 552 I think we're going to be making a big move down if we get this rug pull if we bounce on 555.com I'm in the middle with this it really depends on what the data tells us with the big red bar we do favor down set just a slightly bit more but just to be safe watch for confirmations because I can't turn more bearish from here unless we lose this key EMA so I have to watch and see we do look weak technically speaking but we'll have to watch and see if we get a bounce or not that's going to depend on the big data coming out so wait and see watch 55.9 tomorrow if we bounce we can turn back up if we fail we're going to turn more bearish es has a very similar excuse me a very similar technical setup we resistance all the way up here around this um the 4H hour 5648 area we supported 5600 Flats if you lose 5600 we're bearish we're going to be looking for a big drop to the 5500s if we break past uh 5648 we're going to be looking for a rebound to about 5660 so in my personal opinion we are trying to rebound a bit I do see a potential test of 5648 coming so we'll see if we get a rejection or not that depends on the big Bank earnings but watch for that very carefully uh that's going to be a big test tomorrow Nvidia looks a little bit more bearish it looks to me like it's going to most likely test 124.80 point8 area we're going to be dipping down to this imbalance towards 111 and if we hold we have to get back above 129.
18 to turn bullish otherwise we we're favoring the downside so to to be bullish you want to break past 129. 18 if we fail to do so we're going to remain bearish and this chart does look more bearish it does favor downside more so it's looking more probable we see Downs set on Nvidia just to be safle watch for confirmation depending on the big Bank earnings for Bitcoin lo and behold Bitcoin pumped and dumped with the market so it moved very similar to the market we did see a pretty nice move I know people would have thought that you know it's just CPI how is it going to affect Bitcoin does affect Bitcoin to some extent so we're nearing a bearish cross in the pp we have a double bottom like structure if we lose 57,000 we're going to be looking for a DI all the way down towards the 55,500 area I think there's going to be a rug pull on bitcoin if we lose 57,000 but if we break past 5840 or 50 EMA we're going to be looking for a push back up towards 58 ,800 so break 58,000 we're bullish lose 57,000 we're bearish this chart does favor a bit of a drop that's coming especially after we have this double tops that's looking more favorable to me for a few more we have the QQQ the triple Q we're going to likely test 490 in my opinion during the pre-market tomorrow if we bounce off 490 we're going back up to about 495 and if we lose 490 that's going to be close our 50 EMA we're going to be dipping all the way down to 484 so do we lose 490 to turn bearish or do we bounce off of it we'll have to wait and see this depends on big Bank earnings and other factors but I do see a little bit more downside coming so we'll see what the reaction is Apple's trying to bounce right now is trying to hold above its 20 EMA if we're success when we hold above 227 we're going up to the 230 plus area if we lose 227 we're going to be dipping all the way down to 221 I'll be watching to see how this ends up reacting just to be safe for a few more let me just double check this we have paler if paler loses 27.4 we going be dipping all the way down towards 27 flat and then eventually 26 .4 if we're bullish and we hold above 27.4 we could be rebounding to 28 plus we're kind of in the middle but looking at this red bar this is favoring downside so it it's kind of like has this uh liquidity grab here we come down we make a lower high and we continue lower that's looking more probable to me but just to be safe we'll see if that end up being the case so if we lose 27.4 look for 26.4 to next it does look a little bit more bearish once again about Tesla guys technicals do look more bearish it's going to likely test 231 so we'll see if we bounce or not but it it's going to dip a little bit more most likely and we'll see what the move is depending on the data just wanted to call that out one more time for super micro we're downtrending we had a high here came down lower high lower low lower high lower low so it could pop a little bit we might try to get close to 900 then reject and come back down to about 867 that looks like the most favorable move if we break past 900 we could turn back to bullish if we lose 867 we're bearish this favors a pop and drop and then move back down to 867 rivan we're on a bit of an uptrend right here we have 17 as resistance okay if we break past 17 we're going all the way up to about uh 17 15.8 if you reject off 17 we're coming back down to about 15.8 in my personal opinion I think it's going to touch 17 maybe come back down to 15.8 because 17 is a very very tough resistance I'll be watching see if that ends up being the case for so far we're going to be testing our 200 D at uh 6.8 if we break 6.8 we're going to be pushing all the way up towards seven if you rejector we're going to be dipping all the way down towards 6.5 my guts telling me this is going to be a big test and I can't promise anything about Sofi guys it depends on the big Bank earnings but it looks like it wants to break out higher it does look a little more bullish we'll see if the big Bank earnings cause a bounce or not but I am seeing potential in Sofi for the iwm Russell 2000 the iwm is on fire the Russell is on fire looks like it wants to go up to 212.5 in my opinion looks bullish to me this is favoring upside unlike the overall market so it's building some strength for AMD we have resistance currently around this 184 area and we have support at 177 this chart is favoring a test of 177 and we'll see if we bounce or not we look for a little dip and see if we get a bounce for armm we're looking a little bit more bearish I'm going to be looking at 171.5 as support and then 178 as resistance I think 171 is going to be tested if we lose this we're going to be looking for a bigger dip towards 165 looking a little bit more bearish but we'll see how he reacts to 171 so I do see a little bit more downside coming uh just to be safe I'll watch and see what kind of reaction we get off of that so watch for that just for confirmation for let me just double check this coinbase is looking a little bit more bearish May pop to about 27 then dip lower to towards about 212 the trend is bearish as we're making lower highs and lower lows to be bullish you want to break past 223 as of right now we're below that we had a nice liquidity grab so it's favoring this rejection move back here for a move back down to 212 for Amazon we're dipping a bit we're actually going to rebound a little bit on Amazon I think it's going to retest 19578 if we break through that we're going back up to 198 if we fail if we reject here we're going to be coming back down towards 192 so look for a test of this yellow line right here the 50 EMA if we hit this and break through this we're going up higher if we reject going to be coming back down this depends on the big Bank earnings it's very indecisive so we have to wait and see for meta we're looking a little bit more bearish to me I think that this is favoring a move to 508 again maybe even 505 so I'm seeing some weakness especially after this big red bar right here so this favor is downside a little bit more as we below our EMAs Microsoft is going to do the same thing as Amazon it's going to be retesting its 50 EMA 456 is going to be tested I think we're going to go a little higher to 456 tomorrow if we break that we're going back up to 460 if it rejects here we're going to be coming back down so look for a test of 4556 tomorrow if we reject durin the pre-market we're going to be coming back down to 452 if we break through that we're going up to 460 I have to wait for the test just to see cuz the stock is indecisive Google is barely alphabet is barely holding 187 it's kind of funny we're barely holding our 50 EMA so it does look kind of weak from a technical standpoint considering that but I'm not going to promise anything we just have to see if we lose this or not lose 187 we're going to be dipping all the way down to 185 hold this and we're going to be rebounding to about 189 we look a little bit more bearish so we'll we'll see how things end up developing from here but just know that there is some weakness GameStop is forming a double bottom leg structure all have retailer interested in this I think that we could be pushing for 26 if we break through that we're bullish if we fail to do so we're just going to consolidate but I'm seeing some Lu I think 26 is going to be tested tomorrow we may even try to break through that I see some potential in G gme AMC is going to likely consolidate we have 5.24 as resistance and 5.1 is support I'm going to be looking for some consolidation tomorrow we have this little liquidity grab so maybe it consolidates and dips a little bit so look for that going into tomorrow I do favor that a little bit more for djt we're testing our 20 EMA if you're reject off 30 we're going to be dipping all the way down to 27 if we break past 30 we're going up to 32 so look for a big test tomorrow I'm a little bit concerned and I think that uh their Bank earnings may affect this especially as this is involved in Commercial Services so we'll see I mean I think that it's been rejecting off its 20 EMA many times so I'm going to be watching to see if you reject off resistance or not we're literally at resistance right now at 30 guys so we have to wait and see what the move is uh I'm going to wait and see there's a slight bullish Divergence on so maybe it tries to do something surprising I need to watch for confirmation just to be safe the vix on the 4our is going to be testing its 13 uh .15 area I think it's going to be a test of our 200 EMA if we kind of pump and dump and reject off this this could be a sign that the market is going to bounce if we break out through this we can turn back to bullish on the vix which would be bearish for the markets the last time this happened we basically uh gapped up above it and and then just rejected so that is a sign we'll see we'll see what the market does it depends on the vix of course um don't forget about the 10-year treasury yield it's dipping but it's not really affecting the market much so I'm not too worried about that the dollar looks like it could try to bounce here it's showing some life if it breaks past 104.6 104.8 is coming that could be a bearish signal for the market so the dollar is showing some life that it wants to bounce this suggests that there could be more downside for the markets anyways guys as far as Tesla goes just know that Tesla looks very bearish right now it does 231 to be tested we'll see if we bounce or not off of that and then spy and the others are also looking a little bit weak but we're at support on a lot of stocks like spy for example also on the QQQ so we're going to be watching to see do we get a big break of support do we end up losing these key supports or do we bounce off of them uh I wish I could be a fortune to learn and give you guys the answer but I don't know for sure the reason I don't know is because it depends on the big Bank earnings it depends on the PPI reports tomorrow just like how when when CPI came out we couldn't predict everything perfectly because some times you never know what the numbers could look like so that's the reason why I'm trying to be unbiased and give you guys a very very good analysis there are other days when I'm way more search to give you guys like uh more sty about what's going to happen for sure but in this case I want to be a little bit more open-minded to the possibility of anything because you never know what's going to happen with the big Bank earnings this earnings season is about to kick off all right that's it for my video thank you all so much for listening hope you guys have a great evening a great night a great day wherever you are around the world and I'll see you guys very soon tomorrow before the Market opens to talk about PPI and the big Bank earnings all right so take care guys have a great day I'll see you guys tomorrow Tesla to the Moon because the long term is still bright despite what we're seeing for the short term and peace out
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