저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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무역전쟁과 관세는 더 큰 금융·정치·세계질서 변화의 증상이며, 재정적자(GDP 대비 약 7%)와 부채 문제가 핵심이다. 관세는 혼란스럽게 집행되고 있어 생산 효율을 해친다. 현재 경기침체 직전이며 단순 recession보다 나쁜 화폐질서 붕괴 위험이 있고, 1930년대와 유사하다고 경고한다. 재정적자를 GDP 3%로 낮추는 '3% 서약'을 의회에 촉구한다. 화폐 가치 훼손과 인플레이션, 국제 갈등 시나리오를 우려하지만 관리 가능하다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
If you're alive, I'm pretty sure you realize that we're in the middle of a trade war. Trump and China are going at it. And in a recent interview, Ray Dalio said that what's coming could be worse than a recession. But I want you to listen to it for yourself because he brings up some excellent points.
He's the owner of the largest hedge fund and he has a wealth of information. So check this out. Mr. Dalio, welcome to Meet the Press. Thank you. Good to be here. Just call me Ray. Okay. Well, Rey, I'll take you up on that. Thank you so much for being here. Uh we really appreciate your perspective. As I just said, you did found the world's largest hedge fund.
Uh you have been in this field for more than 50 years. It's worth pointing out to our viewers, I think it's important to note, you consider yourself to be apolitical and you say that the tariff problem is a symptom of a much greater problem. What do you mean by that? There's uh a financial problem. There's an imbalance problem.
There are basically five big forces through history that drive everything. First, there's the money, credit, debt, economic cycle in which there's a building up of debt in a cyclical way that becomes too large and we're going to have problems. We're going to have a government debt problem. Maybe we can get into this.
The second big force through time is the um internal conflict force. The left and the right. Differences in wealth and values causing a conflict that we're seeing changing our political order. So the first is changing our monetary order. The second is changing our political order internally. And then the third is the great world order.
The how countries deal with each other. when there's a rising power challenging existing power and now we are going from multilateralism which is largely an American world order type of thing to a unilateral world order in which there's great conflict and the other two factors all through history have been acts of nature droughts floods and pandemics and number four is technology technology changing and how they are coming together are the main forces behind this for example there can't be imbalances anymore in that environment do you think that President Trump's tariffs are exacerbating what you are describing this complicated mix of challenges that the world is facing uh I I think it's just a function of how well they're handled you know it's a reality that it's a desire to bring in tax revenue from that it's a reality that we would like to build manufacturing and jobs here.
This is a reality. That's how that's done. Whether that's done in a practical way, whether that's done in a stable way, whether that's done with quality negotiations in which that's a mutual problem, or whether that's done in a chaotic and disruptive way that produces great conflict makes all the difference in the world.
Based on what you're seeing right now, do you think that these tariffs are being carried out in a practical way or a chaotic way? I think we'll we'll see. So far, very disruptive. So far, very disruptive, right? And and so we don't know what the numbers are, but that could be part of a process, right?
It depends where we are at the end of the 90 days because what was put there is like throwing rocks into the production system and those impacts are going would be enormous in terms of the efficiency of the whole world. Great cost. I want to ask you about something that's on a lot of people's minds.
Your predictions for the future. And I want to start with the Rword. I know you think this is just a piece of it. Of course, I'm talking about a recession. Do you think it is likely that the United States will dip into a recession because of President Trump's tariffs? I I think that um right now we are at a decisionmaking point and very close to a recession and I'm worried about something worse than a recession if this isn't handled well.
A recession is two negative quarters of GDP and whether it goes slightly there. We always have those things. We have something that's much more profound. We have a breaking down of the monetary order. We are going to change the monetary order because we cannot spend the amounts of money. So we have that problem.
And when we talk about the dollar and we talk about tariffs, we have that. We are having a profound changes in our domestic order, how ruling is existing and we're having profound changes in the world order. Such times are very much like the 1930s. I've studied history and this repeats over and over again.
So if you take tariffs, if you take debt, if you take the rising power challenging existing power, if you take those factors and look at the PA factors that those changes in the orders, the systems are very very disruptive. How that's handled could produce something that is much worse than a recession or it could be handled well.
Let's take the debt situation. Yeah, I'm sorry. Go ahead. Well, very very quickly because I want to be very specific about what you mean. You're saying worse than recession. You're saying this is reminiscent of the 1930s. We should tell our viewers you correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis. What is your prediction for where the country is headed right now?
Right now we're at a juncture. Let's take the budget. It the budget deficit can be reduced to 3% of GDP. It's about it will be about 7% if things are not changed. If it could be reduced to about 3% of GDP and these trade deficits and so on are managed in the right way. This could all be managed very well.
I believe that members of Congress should take the pledge what I call the 3% pledge that in one way or another that they will get that budget deficit down to that number. If they don't, we're going to have a supply demand problem for debt at the same time as we have these other problems. And the results of that will be worse than a normal recession.
So can and just to follow up on that point, worse than a recession. You're talking about the 1930s. What specifically are you warning of? Are you saying that it could be as bad as a depression? What's your biggest fear? The value of money. What is a storehold of wealth? That is a bond. In other words, one man's debt is another man's assets, bond holders.
And so, we're going to be in a situation where if that storehold of wealth is in jeopardy because there's too much supply and demand and so on, and we have a monetary inflation, we will have great disruptions. And that that could be like the breakdown of the monetary system 71. It could be like 2008.
It's going to be very severe. I think it could be more severe than those if these other matters simultaneously occur. Imagine if we have a downturn politically and and and international conflict. What's worstc case scenario that you're warning of? To be very specific to to be very specific the value the value of money uh internal conflict that is not the normal democracy as we know it.
an international conflict in a way that is highly disruptive to the world economy and could even be a military conflict just as these breakdowns have occurred before. You know, we have a new order that began in 1945, a new monetary order and a new geopolitical order. And these go in cycles that can be measured.
And I worry about the breakdown of that kind of an order, particularly since it doesn't need to happen because there are certain things that could be done in which this is better a better restructuring of these debts and actions. To be honest, the way that Trump has been approaching this situation is in more of a disruptive manner because he's putting America first.
He wants America to be great again. Everything is about America. He doesn't care about anyone else prospering. But if you know anything about Ray Dalio, he runs his hedge fund with an idea meritocracy, which means that the best idea wins. So if Trump were to take a page out of his book and sit down with China and all of the other nations and everyone could come to an agreement where everyone wins, then it would be beneficial for everyone because we don't want this situation to escalate to the point where militaries have to get involved.
We just want peace in the east and the west so that it will create less stress. But what do you think? Is Trump taking a correct approach or should he try to find a much more peaceful way so that we can all prosper? And it's about that time. So if you have any questions, leave them in the comments below.
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