저자: ThiagoSalomão · 외국인
요약 보기
Howard Marks가 최근 메모에서 시장의 세 번째 큰 구조적 변화가 진행 중일 수 있다고 언급했다는 것으로 영상이 시작된다. 1980~2020년 미국 금리는 약 20%에서 거의 0%로 떨어졌고, 2008년 이후 장기간 제로금리가 유지되며 위험자산 가치가 밀어 올려졌다. 2020년 코로나 이후 유동성 공급으로 물가가 올랐고, 연준은 2022년부터 금리를 0에서 5.25~5.5%까지 급하게 인상했다. 2023년 8월 이후 미국 2년·10년·30년 장기금리가 역사적 고점을 경신하며 상승 중이다. 미국 국채로 자금이 몰리고 중국 등 해외 수요는 줄어 금리가 올라가는 기술적 요인도 있다고 설명한다. 미국 금리가 높게 유지되면 다른 자산의 상대적 매력이 떨어진다. 주식시장 전반, 신흥국, 미국보다 신뢰도가 낮은 경제권이 특히 압박을 받을 수 있다고 본다. 포트폴리오 재배분이 일어날 수 있으며, 자금이 단기 미국 국채 쪽으로 이동하고 위험자산에서는 빠질 수 있다는 시나리오가 제시된다. 연준 위원들도 2025년 금리 전망이 2.5%와 5% 근처로 엇갈려 합의가 없다는 점이 불확실성의 근거로 언급된다. 브라질 관점에서는 셀리C(기준금리)가 10% 아래, 7~9%까지 내려갈 것이라는 기대가 미국 장기금리 때문에 위험해질 수 있다고 본다. 결론적으로 이 불확실성이 몇 주에서 몇 달 지속될 수 있으며, 투자자들은 현금이나 분산투자로 위험을 줄이는 추세라고 정리한다.
다듬은 글
A major structural change may be taking place in the markets right now. That is the conclusion that major investors, some with decades of experience, are reaching in the face of this turbulent time in the markets. This was even the subject of the latest memorandum written by Howard Marks, an investor with 53 years of experience in the market, which was published last week and generated quite a stir.
He said that in his 53-year history in the market, he has only seen two major radical changes. in the course of things. And now we might be going through the third big change. But what exactly is this change? What is happening? And most importantly, how does this impact your life and your investments?
This and a little more we're going to answer right now here in this video. But first, let me introduce myself. I am Thiago Salomão, founder of Marketmakers. And if you enjoy content about investments and financial markets, subscribe to the channel, because every week I'm here bringing you a new perspective , deal?
So, let's go to the video. If you already follow our podcasts , you will have noticed that something strange is happening in the world. You can even see it in the tone our guests have used to explain what happens in the markets, which very few people actually know how to explain. But how did we get to this point, which is so difficult to explain?
Well, we have to go back 40 years in time, but I promise I'll summarize this story in two minutes. Between 1980 and 2020, the US interest rate fell by 2000 basis points, going from 20% to almost zero and remained at zero for a long time. It's good to keep this in mind, because it helps explain much of the movement in the valuation of risk assets and other more exotic investments.
This movement intensified in 2008, when the Federal Reserve, the US central bank , reacted to the subprime crisis by bringing the interest rate to zero and announcing a series of stimulus measures to boost the US economy. This crisis became known as the subprime crisis. If you have no idea what that is, I suggest you watch the movie The Big Short.
But going back to the practical effect on the markets, the Fed took the interest rate to zero and announced several programs such as quantitative easing, which basically injected money into the economy, making the system recover after the severe crisis . And because inflation remained very low for a long time, the Fed felt comfortable maintaining these stimuli and the rate at zero for more than 10 years in the US economy.
And what was the practical effect of this? We had the longest economic recovery on record, and the effect of that ended up being reflected in what we are seeing today. In this period of very low interest rates , basically everything that was invested ended up giving a return. This made investors less hesitant to invest in risky things, and even made the companies themselves more eager to raise money, right?
Because even if they didn't produce short-term results, investors were willing to leave that money hoping for a positive outcome that in some cases never even came. There's even an Eastern proverb that helps to summarize what happened quite well, is n't there? Hard times create strong men, strong men create easy times.
Easy times create weak men, and weak men create difficult times. Clearly we went through a very easy time and that created weaker men. And now we are going to go through very difficult times and the interest rate will help to discipline investors a little . This interest rate wasn't going to stay low for that long.
The Fed even tried to withdraw these stimulus measures and raise rates around 2020, but when COVID hit, it injected stimulus again. Except that in 2020 this effect was different, because it put a lot of money into the economy, but it was a time when products started to run out , right? Inputs were no longer produced as before, and with a lot of money in the economy and few goods being offered, this caused prices to rise and inflation, which until then had not been a problem, appeared quickly.
Inflation emerged in 2021 and the Fed called it transitory, but in 2022 it began to emerge more strongly and forced the US Central Bank to raise rates from zero to the current level of 5.25 and 5.5%. one of the steepest rate hikes we've ever had . This didn't happen now, but the effects seem to be having their consequences on the market overnight.
Since August, we have observed that long-term interest rates in the United States, with maturities of 2, 10, or even 30 years, are rising more and more, reaching new historical highs. What does that mean, right? What signal does this send to the market? Investors are increasingly worried about the future of the US economy.
There is a technical effect there as well, since government debt securities, the Treasuries, are being offered, but there is less money in the economy to buy those securities, both in the United States and even in China, which for a long time was a destination for these Treasuries and has invested less in them .
Therefore, these same securities have to increase their rate to attract new investors. But we are now seeing the consequences in the markets; The long-term interest rate in the United States is rising more and more. The practical effect of this on the market is that if the United States is the safe haven for investors, where it is treated almost as a risk-free investment and is paying increasingly higher returns, then all other investments in the world end up being impacted.
In other words, they need to improve their performance to attract investors. That's why the stock market in general, and emerging economies or other smaller or less reliable economies than the United States, end up suffering at this time and may go through what we are seeing: a major structural change.
Some investors are calling this a new reallocation of large portfolios , aren't they? And this can mean that economies that were previously not part of investors' portfolios because they paid very little interest, now start to be included, because the rate pays much more. And the consequence could be more money in US Treasury bonds, mainly short-term ones, and less money in the rest of the market.
Anything riskier than this, like the stock market, US fixed income itself , but with a longer term, in short, investments that have a longer duration or a higher risk. The big question on investors' minds today is how long this long-term US interest rate will remain high. And nobody knows the answer to that, right?
We even perceive it in the Federal Reserve's own projections for the future of the interest rate. By 2025, some believe the rate will return to 2.5%, while others believe it will remain close to 5%. So, even among the Fed's own voting members , there is a perception that there is no consensus on where the interest rate will go.
Because of this uncertainty, we are seeing the consequences now. Nobody really knows where it's going. Therefore, investors are increasingly reducing the risk in their portfolios. It is increasingly common to see investors with super diversified portfolios or simply with cash, waiting for a clearer signal.
But the fact is that since August things have gotten much worse. And how might this impact your life or your investment portfolio? If the US interest rate remains high for longer or simply does not fall, this should impact monetary policy worldwide, including in Brazil. So here in Brazil we had the expectation that the SELIC rate, which is already trending downwards, would continue to fall, potentially reaching below 10% or even 9, 8% or as low as 7%, according to some projections.
All of this could be at risk in a scenario where long-term interest rates in the US hinder this whole dynamic of falling rates globally. This is not a sign that single-digit SELIC is a thing of the past or that this will not have any impact. The key point is that there is a huge question mark on the minds of investors right now, and it could last for a few more weeks or even a few months.
For some investors, this structural change is already happening. For others, it's just a matter of time. But what about you? What are you doing with your portfolio during this time of uncertainty? Let us know in the comments, we want to hear it. And every week we bring in a new guest to help us answer this big question surrounding investors.
So, if you want to stay up to date on what's happening in the market, there's a new episode of the Marketmakers podcast every Thursday at 6:00 PM here on YouTube or on your favorite podcast platform. If you liked this video, give it a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel. Every week I'm back here bringing an investment perspective, and every Thursday at 6:00 PM there's a new podcast on Marketmakers. Until next time.
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