저자: TomLee · 외국인
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10월 증시 약세 우려를 접고 강세 전환. 선거 변동성에도 불구하고 시장이 견조하며, 연준 완화 기대와 관망 중이던 대기 자금(약 6조달러)이 유입될 것으로 봄. 물가는 완만히 둔화될 것이고 PCE 2% 도달 경로에 있음. 반면 엔비디아는 ASML 실적 우려에도 AI 수요가 여전히 강하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
really did Tom Le just switch skepticism on the market for October and went all in and disregarded election volatility in this video we recover the reason why being bullish right now might be the best case for your portfolio let's take a look at this quick click from Tom Lee and before we start this video was brought to you by Infinity tax so click on the link below for some free tax tips let's take a look Tom Lee's here managing partner and head of research at fundstrat Global advisors as well as a CNBC contributor Tom in recent um appearances I would say that your uh conviction hasn't necessarily been quite as as strong as it had been in some of your other calls where it there's been a time where you said the inflation data will be so good that the S&P will be up 200 points in the next week and and it it panned out and it played uh right into what you were saying the last time you were on I think your basic thesis was that Market's still solid through the end of the year but in the meantime there could be uh some volatility and maybe even a pullback now I think you're saying it's been more stable than what you're expecting and it has to do with liquidity and cash on the sidelines more than anything else yes that's right um you're right we've kind of been sort of I think fooled by seasonality because we thought markets would be hesitant before you know the elections and it's October but we've you know we've seen this Market be incredibly resilient so I've underestimated how strong this Market's been I I think it really shows macro data is a becoming less important and it's now the fact that a lot of cash has been on the sidelines you know for last two years investors expected a recession or many thought when the curve un inverts we got a recession but at the end of the day there's $6 trillion of cash on the sidelines and October has turned out to be a great month we've seen it evidence of what you're saying and I know how closely you walk we've seen it on a daily basis over the last I'd say maybe month or so where many days we even down triple digits in the Futures only to end up 250 or 300 points by by the end of the session and with no uh backdrop of of positive news nothing to account for it other than it seems like there's money on the sidelines that's coming in I mean it feels like investors are underinvested in stocks I think there's people who've dreaded uh 2024 thinking this is the year we slip into a recession and instead uh and we're seeing it with earnings companies have been really resilient yeah we waited we waited and waited and waited to to retest the lows a couple of times in 2022 and 2023 and people weren't um bullish at all we didn't get uh great advances and now it's it's almost Unstoppable and nothing seems to be able to knock it off a track whether it's I mean I think the PPI and CPI were both a little hotter uh than than people thought the uh the the prospects for a Fed uh continued easing cycle are now open at some conjecture I think although most people say it's still going to happen even though things are are pretty solid in both the economy and the stock market yeah I mean I think it makes sense for the FED to be doish just because inflation is still tracking especially PC towards their 2% Target and now we have some concerns about the job market so I think the FED has to be supportive and I think this election which uh is becoming less of a coin toss I think because it's been a coin toss people have been sitting on their hands I think these are reasons markets are starting to have conviction even in front of an election event I think we've soft pedal it too the swing states have have even some of the Swing states that looked like solid lus Camp are now truly swing states are trumps up in Michigan and Wisconsin to and yeah and betting and everything else uh and you know if NBC goes from Trump up or from Harris up five to Trump and Harris tied and then you do a full field and Trump is actually up in a full field thing so I I think you might be right bitcoin's at 65,000 you wouldn't say that the stock market's performing better because it's starting to look like it's less of a coin toss would you I I think markets like visibility so if if it looks like one candidate is now looking like to be the surprise winner then markets can actually trade better before the election wait wait does it matter you said like markets like visibility they they have to like what they see on the other side of it I would see assume yes uh I mean I'm probably just citing Market history but whether Trump or Harris wins I think stocks do pretty well next year uh sort of a post-election rally but there are definitely differences in sectors in asset class's performance depending if Trump or Biden uh Trump or Harris wins but you know Bitcoin for instance is something to watch if Trump looks like he's strengthening because Trump is running on a pro Bitcoin platform all right now you said something get get off of that uh the politics you said that you thought agreed with almost the asymmetric risk now and and I I still think it could go the other way I mean I think the labor market looks pretty solid given that last report and that we're still if pce is 3% we're still it's got to go down another 33% to hit two and they swore they're not moving the gold post it's two it's two it's two it's not two and a half Tom it's two yes and and what makes you think that that's that's in the car who who knows with the Middle East and everything else but oil's back to you know mid 70s and could go higher uh I I just I'm more worried about it I don't know they're more worried about the jobs picture than uh stubborn inflation uh yeah I mean o you're you're actually right oil spikes can cause an inflation Spike and that would that would be a surprise um but if we look at what was what been keeping inflation stubbornly high it's been shelter which in the latest inflation report finally is rolling over and it's auto insurance which is now just beginning to Sunset so in the second half auto insurance becomes a tailwind and then the question would be if are core Goods going to stay under pressure to kind of bring overall inflation down and it looks like core inflation sorry on Goods um looks like it's going to remain soft so I think inflation doesn't have the the upside drivers except for what you're saying a commodity sh according to Tom Lee there a ton of money at the sign line ready to come into the market from investors who were playing it safe thinking we would see a recession the past two years at the moment they're sick of waiting and want to provide some type of return for their investors let's take a look at this article from Baron that explained why the drop in Nvidia is just a minor scare Nvidia stock Falls after asml earnings leak early while the drop is a overreaction a smaller CL of nvidia's stock pickup speed after earning result from asml came out a day earlier than expected but look at nvidia's business Prospect indicate that that may not be the case the dut company makes an extreme evu machine critical for manufacturing Advanced semiconductors its customers include Taiwan Samsung and Intel asml disappointing Outlook isn't necessarily bad for NVIDIA asml explicitly said AI related demand remains strong and that the weakness stems from the logic chip business the most likely Factor behind the weakness is spending on chip making gear may be Intel which makes central processing units or CPUs for PCs and servers Nvidia has consistently said demand for its AI gpus is still robust early this month the company stated at an investor presentation that demand continued to exceed Supply even after the supply has expanded significantly this year don't forget to like and sub subscribe to the channel and click on the link below for the Instagram page of infinity tax where we provide free tax tips for 2024 thank you for tuning in and see you next time
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