저자: TheRetirementIncomeInvestor · 외국인
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나스닥100 지수에 대형 IPO가 15일 내 편입될 수 있는 규칙 변경과 블랙록·스테이트스트리트의 QQQ 경쟁 ETF 출시로 구조적 변화가 생겼다고 주장. IPO 편입 시 패시브 ETF의 강제 매수로 변동성이 커지고, QQQ의 구조적 우위는 약화되지만 단기~중기적으로 옵션 매도 전략에는 큰 변화가 없을 것으로 봄. 스페이스X 등 대형 IPO가 시총 기준 상위권으로 편입될 수 있다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Something just changed with the Nasdaq 100 index and I don't think anybody's talking about it. This isn't just another ETF launch. It's a structural shift that could impact how the Nasdaq 100 performs, how IPOs or initial public offerings move markets and eventually how we trade options on QQQ. So the real question is, does this matter or is it just noise?
All right, so first off, we need to understand what is actually changing because there are really two big developments happening at the exact same time. Okay, so part one is an IPO rule change or an initial public offering rule change. Under new rules, large IPOs can now be added to the index in as little as 15 days.
Before it could take months, maybe even up to a year. What does this mean? It means companies like SpaceX, OpenAI or any other massive tech IPO could be added to the Nasdaq 100 within weeks of going public. And here's what gets important. When companies get added to an index like the Russell 2000, the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100 of course, the passive indexes or ETFs that track that index are forced to buy these companies in a concentration level that matches their capital value.
So now instead of a slow gradual inclusion to the index, you may see some of these ETFs massively buying within just weeks after a company gets launched. You could see massive institutional buying of these shares of these new companies within just a short period of time, perhaps only weeks from the initial public offering.
What's part two? QQQ is finally getting some competition for the index, the Nasdaq 100 index. QQQ has been dominant for decades covering the Nasdaq 100. We're talking about hundreds of billions in assets, some of the highest trading volume in the world and basically zero real competition. But now that's changing.
Firms like BlackRock and State Street are just now filing for new ETFs that are going to challenge the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ. And for the first time they have a real shot at competing with QQQ. So zoom out for a second here. This is not just, "Hey, it's a brand new ETF." We see a lot of that these days.
This is a structural shift in how the Nasdaq ecosystem works. Okay, so let's talk about why this actually matters. Number one, IPOs or initial public offerings are going to move the market much faster and much bigger than it did before. A big IPO might take months to enter the index, but now it could happen in just a few weeks, which means ETFs are forced to buy sooner.
Demand gets compressed into a shorter time frame and price movement can be extremely aggressive. This is just going to drive volatility even higher. If IPOs are being added faster or new companies that are just going public have the opportunity to join the Nasdaq 100 in just a few weeks and if those passive index ETFs are forced to buy these companies within just a few weeks of them becoming public, then some of the returns from these ETFs are going to be very dependent on IPO cycles and when those companies go public, especially when you think about companies like SpaceX, OpenAI and other large tech companies.
For a long time QQQ had a built-in edge, brand recognition, significant liquidity and structural advantages that made it hard for other ETF issuers to compete. And the increased competition is probably going to be a good thing in many ways where you get other funds or other issuers that add ETFs that compete and as a result fees will likely come down and there will be less dominance over time.
Think about like the S&P 500, right? Initially you had SPY, SPY from State Street. Now you've got VOO, IVV etc. And you can expect the same kind of thing to happen with the Nasdaq 100. So what can we expect moving forward into the future? I think the best thing to do is to break it up into phases. So let's think about short term first.
Right now for the maybe the next year or two, nothing much is going to change in my opinion. QQQ will still be by far the most liquid, the highest volume ETF when it comes to the Nasdaq 100. In particular, really good for option sellers. In the same way that the S&P 500 SPY is by far the most liquid and the highest volume ETF when it comes to the S&P 500.
In the medium term, maybe in the next two to five years, you can expect to see some of those inflows of capital go to other ETFs from State Street or BlackRock or iShares. And will that change some volume and liquidity? I'm sure it will. But at the same time, the the time frame by which we would expect option selling to be impacted may be in the long term or perhaps even never.
In the same way that the S&P 500 SPY is the gold standard when it comes to the S&P 500 from an option standpoint, I expect QQQ to stay that way for a long time as well. So from an option selling standpoint, I don't expect much to change in the future except for this fact that with IPOs coming to the forefront quicker and companies like SpaceX, OpenAI etc.
being able to join the index quicker, especially when you think about like from a market cap standpoint. Check out these funds right here. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, the top what? Three, four, five e um companies in the Nasdaq 100 index QQQ. Look at the market cap here. 4.47 trillion, 3.8, 2.7, 2.5, 1.3.
SpaceX is expected to have a market cap at the market open when it goes when it's filing for its public initial public offering of north of 1.7 trillion dollars, which means it's going to catapult from being nowhere in public offerings to number five, number six in the Nasdaq 100. That's going to have a massive shift in the index.
So here's the bottom line. QQQ is not going anywhere, but it's structural advantage just got weaker. And for option selling, this doesn't break the strategy, but it does change the option selling environment. Some things to consider. Pay attention to IPO inclusion timing. In other words, these new companies that are going public, when are they set to join the index?
And be mindful of how that could impact the pricing at least in the short term for QQQ. Expect more volatility around major additions and understand that liquidity potentially over time could evolve. By the way, if you want to see how I potentially could be adjusting my strategy moving forward around this and and be part of daily conversations regarding option selling specifically around QQQ and the Nasdaq 100, you got to think about joining the Average Joe Investor Income Academy on the school platform.
We talk a lot about selling options and creating income from our portfolio. Right now you can join for 50% off if you do an annual subscription. If you're interested, check out the link down in the description below. Hopefully you found some value out of this video, guys. Make sure to leave your two cents down in the comments below.
It's my goal to respond to as many of those comments as possible on the day I post a new video. That's all I got for you guys. Have a great rest of your day and thanks for watching.
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