저자: 미상 · 외국인
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2020년 12월 25일 영상으로, TQQQ 풋옵션 매도(풋 세일링) 전략을 설명. 165·170 행사가 풋 매도 시 주간 수익률 약 1~1.7%를 예시로 제시하고, 연초 연수익률 목표 관점에서 분석. 진행자는 연말 산타랠리로 시장이 상승할 것이라는 편향을 밝히며 TQQQ가 주말까지 180 부근까지 갈 수 있다고 추정. 176 풋 매도(510 프리미엄) 의향도 언급. 하락 리스크는 전제로 언급하되 기본 편향은 상승.
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all right i want to look at uh the put analysis for the week this is something we really haven't done very much um usually do it after the fact uh so we're doing this on christmas it's friday so we got saturday and sunday to look at these this is of course if you're not in these positions that will change i own 30 35 65 of t triple q right now so i'll probably be selling calls against it depends on what happens in the morning the futures are up monday morning or not but if you didn't have a position and you wanted to uh sell the puts which is what i kind of what i start out at if it gets put to me which it did at 165 and i think it's going to go up which it has it's went up to almost 175 174 65 is what it's trading at now then depending on whether i think the market's going to go up or not i might sell the calls against it which i did twice i saw the 170s i once hold the 175s we've done really good in december so right now i'm at 54 point something percent um for the year and i'm looking to juice it a little bit with the calls but what i want to look at here is if you don't have a position and you wanted to sell puts what kind of analysis do you go through so this is what i do so i just go to yahoo and i just cut and pasted into a uh excel word sheet spreadsheet and then i took the bid in the ask and i cut it into and came up with the figure in column m and column m is just the bid and ask divided by two uh so just to get a midpoint of the bid and ask which would be a fair number that you could possibly uh get for a premium and then what i do is i divide that by the strike price so and the reason i do that is that's how much money you have to have to um to be able to cover this if you're selling puts against it in case the stock gets put to you so that's what they mean by put to you if the spot gets put to you so what happens here let's look at the 165s so it's trading at 174.65 if you sell the 165s you get 1.71 essentially when you sell it okay the dollar 71 is the premium um you get that regardless and let's say in my case i could sell 3 400 because i have 3 400 that's option uh that i can sell options against of the 3565 that i have if i decide to do that 1.71 divided by 165 is 1.04 percent and a few times one point seven one times thirty four hundred you get five thousand eight hundred fourteen so what happens here uh you get one percent on your money for the week and then what's the worst case scenario so if you look over in column uh p i have the worst case scenario here the worst case scenario is the stock the stock is down more than 165 and it gets put to you at 165.
now you would have got a dollar 71 and so your effective price would be 163.29 if the stock ended up if the etf t triple q ended up at 163 29 uh below that you would be losing money if it's above that you'd be making money if it's above 165 you'd make the best case scenario is you'd make the 1.04 for the week and um nothing would happen because the stock ended up higher um same thing at the 170s the 170s you get a little bit more premium so you're getting 1.67 percent and with my 3 400 shares um i could make about 9 000 96.73 for the for the week or say case scenario is i'd have to it gets put to me the market goes down i'd have to buy it at 167.15 best case scenario it's over 170 and i uh i make a dollar 67.
now in those two scenarios um what would happen well you bought it lower so if you if you believe in t triple q which i do i think it will go back up so there could be some event that would make it go down but the bias for the christmas rally the santa rally for the last week of the year is that the market will go up so that's the bias now you could have your own opinion um you could overthink this um you could say well the stock market's up really high i hear people say that a lot but the truth is these triples are always going to be at highs if you look over the last 10 years they've hit new highs after new highs after new highs after new highs so at any time during that time you could say oh well this is at new highs i don't want to buy it there that's a really flawed logic because stocks have to be at all-time highs to hit new highs so that's the truth now if you think biden coming in he's gonna take the market we're gonna have a recession you know if this is your scenario then um there you go i mean or if you think there's an event coming up at the end of the year but for this scenario i think that the market's going to go up that's my bias i think the market's going to be i think t triple q is probably likely going to be at 180 by the end of the week that's my guess um so that's my bias right there could be wrong um what i what i traded up to 180 i might but the other thing is is that what we need to look at is is that this is uh um this is also the last week of the year so don't want to do anything too crazy i really really kind of don't want to hold a position going into the new year because i want to close out and get a clean number just for my yield for the year i can do it on a spreadsheet that's fine so there you go so those are two you know pretty safe bets if you're trying to make income uh what some people might be doing is trying to make income then one percent for the week is fantastic so you might we look going down even further than that you might even go down to 150 and make a quarter of a percent uh because if you do that every week remember these are weeklies then that ends up being quite a bit of money and then worst thing case scenario you bought it 25 points lower and you still make what would be what 52 times a quarter so you know you're still making you know a good rate and worst case scenario you're buying the stock much more or the uh the etf much much slower now what would i do uh since my bias since i'm not a scaredy cat which i'm not which sometimes can get you in trouble and my bias is that i think that it might trade around 180 at the end of the week i could be wrong it might trade down it might trade even but my my thought right now is is that uh and i haven't seen the futures whether they're up or down monday that's going to affect your your thought process but right now my thought is is it might trade around 180.
so if it trades around 180 then um i would be willing to sell the puts a little higher than what they are now and that would be a point higher and so i think one of the best bets going into the end of the year um and i might pay a little bit safer other times but i really think there's a strong bias for the market to go up in the last uh last week of the year is i might sell the puts for the 176 and get the 510 now um this is a lot more risky than you know doing the 165s obviously because you know it's ten point difference but um that would be you know essentially committing to something that's a dollar 35 higher so your effective is going to be um you'd have to if you got put to you uh if it was actually lower than 176 you'd have to buy it at 176.
but since you got 510 effectively you'd be buying it at 170 90. so it's trading at 174.65 uh could you commit monday morning to mine at 170 90 at the end of the week when it's trading at 174 65 at the beginning of the week i would make that commitment so i think one of the best um being that right now i have a bias that i think that the the etf will be higher uh and i think it will be you know my guess is it might trade up to 180.
um you know we've got four days of trading um that would be you know a little over a point a day um or you could have one really good day the rest of the day's flat um yeah three or four points is not uh definitely not unheard of especially if you've got a bias to the upset so that would be 2.9 percent for the week so 2.9 percent for the week times that times 52 you're gonna get you know like 150 so that would be really great if you got that now what happens if if the stock if the salt falters let's say it goes down to 170.
um you'd have to buy it at 165. your cost is 170 90 so you lost 90 cents uh of course it could go down further than that you know these are triples so you know they can be down 10 points it could be down 20 points you know something really bad happened it was a bombing or you know whatever so that could happen but this is the analysis that i go through so really you don't need to do this spreadsheet you don't need to look at all of them uh sometimes i do this because i want to look at how much risk do i want to take and i really do it if there's a choppy market and i'm really kind of wary about the about the market and i want to see you know if i bought it like at the money you know at the money would be essentially 175 now you know you're at the money since we're at 164 65.
so um if you look at the money you look at 174 175 you can make still you know right at two and a half percent so two and a half percent for the week that's incredibly good incredibly good if you look at the 170s uh effectively you'd be buying it 167 15 it went down lower um still 1.67 you're looking at you know 50 what 70 some percent for the year if you do this every week and so this is the beauty of um the beauty of selling puts now what can you do with selling puts that's also good let's say you just want to buy the security you really want to buy the security that's what you want to do and you'd like to hold the security selling puts against it to essentially buy the security is also a way to get in cheaper and so if you want to do that then um you can go up to the 180s and you say okay i want to buy it this week but i'd like to get a discount so you can get a discount by buying it at 180 and you'd get a 755 premium and you essentially be buying it for a little bit cheaper so um you know so you get a couple of point discount so that that's a way to enter it uh getting it a little bit cheaper these low percentages add up over time they really do and if you stay on top of it and you know if you trade every week you know trading's essentially free now and so um trading's a lot better than you know paying um ten dollars in ten dollars out so each trades uh gonna cost you 20 bucks if you did it every if you did it uh every week or just once a week you know it would cost you a thousand bucks um those costs are gone now with uh everybody essentially since trading essentially being free we're almost free and so this is the kind of analysis that i go through so this is analysis with puts i'm going to turn around and i'm going to do analysis on calls because i actually own the own tea triple q now like i said i've got 35 65 of it of 35 3 400 of it uh i have uh where i could write calls against it so but uh i really like uh i really like selling puts to get in cheaper and uh why wouldn't you just buy the common you can buy the calmer i mean if you look at the chart for the common it's great it's spectacular i think if you sell the puts or if you sell calls against it if you own it then you're lowering your risk and don't underes estimate lowering your risk even if your yield goes down a little bit uh if you lower your risk over time that helps you out especially if we have you know something that you know that you know a couple times a year the market really you know tanks or whatever so you got in lower you're not losing as much um it really depends on your list uh risk strategy and your different strategies but um you know when we're looking at these triples and we're looking at making you know one percent or more a week than we're looking at making over 50 for the year so there you go that's my analysis on uh on selling puts so my best buy would be for this week anyway want to be by the 156 at 510 we can do another video at the end of the week on new year's and see how that best buy came in of course if if we look at the futures and the futures are way down in the morning this may not be a strategy you'd want to do i mean you know because it wouldn't make sense then so if it's up then you'd want to grab it as soon as you can so there you go
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